Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Chance of Rain Ahead

Yesterday and today combined for a drier weather experience, but a small change is ahead.  Both NAM and GFS models show a good shot at some precip from Thursday night into Friday.  The GFS shows the best chance running through the Pine Belt within the daytime hours on Friday.

The main kicker for this forecast appears to be a major trough digging into the East coast again (just like last week), but the combination of the trough and a shortwave will bring us the opportunity for rain.  A small vorticity maximum will claim it's property over the Red River region Thursday night, and this setup should provide the majority of Mississippi with precip starting Thursday night.  

This setup will last until Friday night, but Saturday will enter in a 48 hour change as the trough will slowly exit east.  Although we will find ourselves back into another chance of rain next week from early to mid-week.  This will solely occur with an increase in moisture and another shortwave (yet again).  

My thoughts: Our best chance of rain in the immediate future definitely seems to be between early morning and late evening on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few people near I-55 see some precip late Thursday night.  Jumping into the weekend, this time of year I am definitely expecting a few isolated storms with afternoon heating, but these storms will diminish with the loss of stability at night.  The next best chance of rain past this weekend does seem to show up on Tuesday, but this time could see some changes since it is past my "3 day" limit.  

In the end, we need the rain.  1) Because the region is still in a drought. 2) Because it will keep our temps down.  

Thank you
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