Saturday, August 23, 2008

8/23 Fay Update

Fay has officially moved on land. Is Fay on land for the final time? Yes, I believe the remainder of Fay's life will be spent over land.

From the last few hours, the IR Satellite loop shows a definite NW turn. The exact rout of Fay will play a big role in our weather since different quadrants of tropical storms experience different events. Right now, I am seeing the center of Fay to pass almost directly over Hattiesburg/Laurel, which would put most of the rain NE of us. Very high rain totals will still be found in the Pine Belt, but I do expect extreme amounts for people along the I-20 corridor. Of course, I am talking about amounts within a combined 3 days (roughly).

One thing I am watching is the performance of the high pressure system over the Northeast U.S.
I do expect Fay to slow down over Central Mississippi, which will allow these high rain totals. Fay's slow down is connected with the High's location and strength. Most models show the high weakening by Tuesday and allowing Fay to exit NE by Wednesday.

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