The forecast track has not changed much. In fact, I have been watching the last 24 hour satellite loop and become a little uneasy about the northward movement. As Gustav punched through Cuba, the system has made more of a northern turn, but the hurricane recon aircraft still reports a northwest movement at 15mph. During this time I still have to trust the future strengthening of the High over the Great Lakes by Sunday night. Once the high becomes involved we should really begin to see a true NW movement towards SE Louisiana.
The eye did slightly decrease in stature while rolling over Cuba, but Gustav merely maintained it's strong Cat 4 strength. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a Cat 5 tomorrow morning, but the Cat 5 status is expected to diminish within 24 hours of development.
I will have more for you in the morning.
Please feel to email me for discussion at tcade@wdam.com
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