Sunday, August 17, 2008

Fay Tropical Update

First of all, in today's technology I can't believe the model's still show disagreement while Fay is a mere 275 miles away from the Florida Keys.

The latest update shows me still a diverse grasp on Fay's forecast. BAMM and NOGAPS and even the NAM are still forecasting a panhandle landfall. UKMET and NGFDL have moved a little back to the West Coast bend in Florida. GFS HWRF and GFDL still show a near-Tampa landfall.

In this forecast I am curious about the influencing shear within the next 24 hours for Fay, but I am also curious to see how the incoming trough in the middle of the country will interact with Tropical Storm Fay. If Fay comes ashore around Tampa then we could find ourselves in the middle of a drier slot compared to the states and east and west of us. With our midweek forecast, Fay will be in/around Georgia along with another Low in SE Texas. To me, this is a very interesting situation for our forecast. The interaction of the two is key, but I do believe we will not experience a completely dry week with our continued influence of moisture from the Gulf. Wed/Thur for Central and Northern Mississippi looks a little drier, but our friends in AR and LA look wet.

As for Fay, I am still focused on the Western Bend in Florida. This area is north of Tampa and west of Gainesville. I will keep you updated throughout the week for new updates. Thanks for checking in

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