Monday, August 18, 2008

Fay's Forecast

Well Fay is expected to make landfall overnight in SW Florida.  The track across Florida is the general path I expected (even though landfall will be a little farther south than expected).  The biggest concern for me is Fay's track on Wednesday/Thursday.  There is a high pressure located just north of Wisconsin.  Why do I mention this?  Because the high pressure system is expect to move ESE in the next 2-3 days and impact the forward progress of Fay's NE movement.  This is the reason why several models are beginning to show Fay double-back into the Gulf, but the strength of the High definitely controls the outcome.  The farther south this high pressure system travels might also reflect the southern vector of Fay's future motion back west.  

My hope for this forecast is simple.  I'm hoping for Fay to complete it's westward movement on land and not enter the Gulf of Mexico again.  Entering the Gulf again could cause issues.

Our forecast:

The low pressure system in SE Texas will influence our chance of rain tomorrow.  I expect a chance of showers across the region tomorrow afternoon.  Wednesday looks drier, but I'm more focused on our weekend forecast.  I'll have updates later...

As for now, you can catch me tomorrow afternoon at JCJC for the Jones County Multi-Jurisdiction Hazard Mitigation Plan public meeting.  I'll be speaking tomorrow on our role, as WDAM-TV, in severe weather.    I'm looking forward to a wonderful time meeting those in Jones County!

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