Yes, today was still warm, but it was a beautiful day. I will take these dewpoint temps in the mid-50s any time during the month of August. The lower dewpoint allows the air to feel drier rather than the muggy, humid, weather we usually find ourselves experiencing. With the temps, here at the station we dropped to 58 this morning, and I know this a recent record. As far back as I can tell, we haven't seen 58 degree on August 9th. HBG, hattiesburg-laurel, airport only reached a low of 63, while their record low was 58. *Remember our WDAM station in Eastabuchie usually is a few degrees lower than the surrounding area.
I hope you enjoyed today because we are about to jump head first into a rainy forecast. The high pressure over us will begin to progress eastward tonight, which will allow an increased flow of moisture moving ahead of an incoming trough/low pressure system. This system should begin to impact our region by Sunday afternoon.
After this system reaches our area, I am expecting a good bit of rain for the next 3 to 4 days. This trough slowly moves through Monday, and Tuesday will also usher in a shortwave to help produce more rain. As the low moves through, the WRF model actually shows an above average value for Helicity and CAPE. Although I am expecting the most rainfall to drop between us and the TN line in North Mississippi for Monday.
Overall, this is a very difficult forecast. Several models seem to be confused over the initialization, movement, and speed of these two upcoming upper level disturbances. In fact, I am looking forward to tracking the progression of our weather tomorrow to quickly find a stronger grasp on the Monday through Wednesday forecast.
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