Saturday, September 13, 2008

9/13 Forecast Thoughts...

The big story for us in the Pine Belt is the approaching front on Sunday, and Ike is becoming extratropical by losing tropical characteristics and still maintaining strong winds. Both the front and the remanents of Ike will join together to form a very long line of showers. One interesting forecasting note...Usually the Eta model over forecast total rain, but the Eta is rather dry for Sunday night. Now the GFS has turned a model run into a very wet event for Sunday night. The GFS is 2.16" compared to Eta's 0.15". The European is along the same lines with the GFS, but the WRF seems to cut both models down the middle at around an inch.

I'm tempted to raise my POPs (probability of precipitation) for Sunday, but I am feeling rather comfortable with 40%. My concern for avoiding a high probability is related to the warm and drier air aloft. This air has helped us see less convection across the region today and I believe we will still have some leftover pieces tomorrow night.

My big weather story starts on Tuesday. Everyone and anything is agreeing on dry air and North wind starting on Monday afternoon/night. After the front moves through our region Monday morning we will quickly begin to feel the wind shift to the North. This North wind will remove us from the moist influence of the Gulf and open our airways to dry continental air. I expect this pattern to last throughout the remainder of the week. For me, this is a difficult choice to keep this pattern through the week, but I feel this is the pattern we must be experiencing as we roll into the transition from Summer to Fall. I am not saying we won't see another warm spell again, but I do believe we will maintain our below average temperatures for the next few weeks. (At least it is definitely a possibility)

Thanks to all of you! I hope you have a great weekend! Please feel free to email...

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