The latest model runs have moved. This tropical season is very unique.
Anyway, the models are now showing something interesting. If you remember me discussing earlier, a major player in directing Ike within the Eastern Gulf is the influence of the trough moving across the country by mid-week. Well now the major global models like GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and European show a western track simliar to the path of Edouard by skimming along the Gulf Coast line and heading into Texas. This new model run is very reflective to the timing of the front, trough, moving through the country. Models have now slowed the progression of the trough, which allow the Ridge, high, maintain longer control on Ike's westward movement. This is a huge note to make. The timing of the trough is a serious forecasting assesment for the future track of Ike. As long as the high pressure system is established over the Northeast US the movement of Ike will be westward, but the forecast front will quickly break down the High.
For instance, if the front moves through the Central Plains on Wednesday, then we should expect Ike to make landfall between the FL Panhandle and New Orleans. But if the front is slower in progression then we could see Ike follow a West track toward a Western Gulf landfall by late next weekend or around Sept. 15.
A big situation has arisen in forecasting offices throughout the Gulf. All news stations along the Gulf from TX to FL will be keeping a good eye on Ike.
On another note...
The forecast for tomorrow, Sunday, is beautiful. In fact, the next few days seem to be filled with a pleasant "summertime" flow. We will see a good chunk of sunshine, but we might also start seeing those popup afternoon thunderstorms by the middle of the week. The forecast of Ike definitely influences our late-week forecast.
Thanks for stopping in tonight! Have a good Sunday!