Friday, September 19, 2008

A weekend rain forecast

We don't have tropical activity but this is definitely a challenging forecast. Many times scattered showers are the most difficult to forecast because it is hard to determine the timing and location of the rain. Here in the Pine Belt we find ourselves in the midst of a huge atmosphere with an infinite amount of particles, and now forecasteres attempt to make a forecast for your city and your neighborhood. Many days I am amazed how our technology can allow us to forecast a few days in advance with improving data and research.

In this forecast it would be a foolish thing to say it will rain at your football stadium tonight. Although I can tell you there is a 50% chance someone in the Pine Belt will see rain this afternoon and night. Moisture is a major part of my decision in our forecast. This morning will still have a lot of dry air in the mid-levels, which will actually evaporate any moisture before touching the ground. This dry air is also inhibiting the creation of more showers across our region. I actually watched a "dryish" line run into a "moist-ish" line this morning, which allowed light showers to build into Jefferson Davis County and Covington County (for a lack of better words). Now the small line has formed a little more southerly into Louisiana.

I do expect some moisture from our SW and the Gulf to filter into our region throughout the day today. In fact, most of the day we will be under the reign of a cloud deck. This will also keep our temps down to below the 80 degree mark, but some of us in the southern counties might spot 80 or 81. The majority of us will be below 80. The cool temps will also continue into the weekend with cloud cover and capping a high temperature below average. Upper 70s is my forecast through Sunday, but Sunday's high could change a little as we see what is going to playout tonight and Saturday. MOS and many models aren't agreeing on their precip forecast, but models are agreeing on the Low Level Jet entering our region.

A shortwave will be sticking around us for the weekend, but the first day of Fall will bring us the entrance of another High pressure system. I expect clearer skies to start off the first full week of Fall.

Have a good Friday!

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