Tuesday, November 11, 2008

How wet will we get?

Right now I am taking note of the different models and the potential rain for our region. The latest models runs seem to show some interesting points. Let me break it down for you...

Eta: The majority of the rain on Wednesday will be found NW of us in the Pine Belt Region. Between Wednesday and Thurdsay, South Mississippi seems to only have a light amount of rain.

GFS: South Mississippi holds the majority of the rain from now till Friday morning. Although the total rain amount is less than Eta.

WRF: (12Z; old data) This model also agrees with the most recent run of Eta. The majority of the rain will be found NW of the PIB, but we will still experience a light to moderate amount through Thursday night.

The Eta and GFS obviously have some differences, but the Eta is back to it's normal bias. Eta is usually the model to over-exaggerate the total amount of rain. Although the Eta seems to match up better with the analysis of the current sfc map, and the GFS has been too short on extending the rain in North Mississippi today.

My thoughts:
Rain is in the forecast, but I can't go as high of a percentage as NWS at 100% tomorrow (wednesday). I think we will see rain, but only on the light end (less than 0.25"). I also think the rain will be a little more scattered than most people are expecting.
But you must know some of us might have the opportunity to see more than 0.25" in a moderate event.

Feel free to keep track of the rain on Wednesday and Thursday from our Interactive Radar on the Weather Page drop down menu. It is an excellent resource during rain events.


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