Sunday, November 2, 2008

Quiet till Thursday

1036mb High has taken control of our weather scene.

Our forecast exist without a major change until Thursday. Monday to Wednesday will package a slow increase in temperature and moisture. The GFS shows me a 12C 850mb temperature for Wednesday, which is the warmest 850 temp we have seen within the last 7 days.

Tuesday and Wednesday I see us reaching temps a few degrees above normal into the upper 70s, but a moderate cold front will move in late Thursday to change our weather scene. Models have slowed down a bit on the advancement of this cold front on Thursday, but I am still expecting the rain chances to be Thursday PM to a Friday AM event. Although Thursday's high temperature is tricky to forecast right now with the low confidence on when the pre-frontal clouds will move into our region. I'm expecting us to reach a temp in the mid-70s, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this number change a tad between now and then.

Friday's temps are on the low confidence side without a strong model agreement. European shows me 850mb temps at 6C but GFS (which is generally a little too cold) shows me 850 temps at the freezing mark.

Rain chance:
Most of the models show the trough moving more NE by Thursday, which will take some of the vorticity and energy North of us. But the 5 day Severe Outlook has the Lower MS River Valley in the window for a little activity (mainly thunderstorms). CAPE and Shear are all very low at this point so I don't expect a severe event. The main rain will end up be more on the light end of the scale with some people catching some moderate amounts of rain.

In the end, another beautiful weekend ahead.

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