Severe?

Tornado Watch box and a few Tornado Warnings have been issued in the Central Plains, but i am mainly interested in the the front which is creating all of the activity in the plain states today. This front has really churned into something worth noting. I believe the 996mb Low sitting over Eastern South Dakota holds one of the lowest pressure levels we have seen across the nation in the last few weeks. This Low system will be moving slowly Northeasterward in the next 2 days, which will put us on the southern end of the front.

Instability/Moisture/Lift:

Instability will be light in South Mississippi by the time the front moves into our region. WRF and SREF models show me a lack in CAPE and Shear by late Thursday night and into Friday morning. The moisture will be around as tomorrow we expect to see dewpoints in the upper 50s and maybe around the 60 degree mark.
As the majority of the mechanisms will be light in our area, my forecast for rain is on the lighter end, but I wouldn't be surprised to see our Western Counties of Jeff'Davis, Smith, Simpson, and even Covington, catching a moderate amount of rain between 0.25" and 1.00". As the front moves eastward across the PIB, I expect the rain totals to decrease. This will be partially due to the lack of instability in the overnight hours.

Right now SPC only shows a slight risk for portions of West MS and a majority of LA. I don't expect anything severe for our area, but the possibility is always in the front of our minds here in the weather center.

Thanks for reading with us today!

tcade@wdam.com