We have already had mild Summer and Fall seasons, but what is in store for winter? Well our winter will officially begin on December 21, and plenty of difficult exist in forecasting weather several weeks in advance. Although we can make a good effort at distinguishing future trends, which will help us produce a future forecast.
Right now I am noticing a below normal trend in temperatures for the next few weeks. Several long range models are producing a ridge/trough pattern across the U.S. This would deliver us cool temperatures as cP (continental polar) air will have a better opportunity to filter into our region. The Artic Oscillation, which brings cold air into the Eastern U.S., will be going extremely negative by the middle of December. This will allow the great possibility of us to be cooler than normal heading into the 1st day of Winter on Dec. 21. Also the NAO, North American Oscillation, looks to be going negative, which helps lock in the cold air for the Eastern Conus of the U.S.
Honestly, I am really interested to see what numbers we end up experiencing as they will be compared to these models right now.
Take care
tcade@wdam.com
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