Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Rain Timing

In light of tomorrow's rain forecast, I have already received a phone call from a viewer wondering about the timing of the forecast.
Well honestly, the models aren't close enough for me at this time to really rely on a consensus. My thoughts make me think the system is a little slower than the GFS, and this would allow rainfall to begin in the early morning. I do expect things to be clearing by the time you go to sleep Thursday night. A few models like the SREF have moisture sticking around through the evening, but I do believe the main instability and lift mechanisms will be out of the picture.

As this is a streched shortwave system, I would suspect some clouds to stick around behind the main push of the front. Friday looks like a Mostly Sunny day.

Temps will drop off a bit behind the front. Cold Air advection, CAA, will bring in stable conditions with a big of a clearing. 850 temps look like last week's rainfall event, but the difference is the direction of the wind flow. Cold Air Advection hinders uplift and development of moisture, but last week we had a nice Warm Air Advection area bringing in a swatch of moisture.

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