Sunday, August 31, 2008

Overnight Gustav Updates

All Gustav updates can be followed through our website message board, instant messaging, and our on-air weather updates at the top of every hour.

http://www.wdam.com/Global/story.asp?S=8929442

http://www.wdam.com/global/Category.asp?c=146567

I will update the Blog Tuesday afternoon/evening with new information. Thank you

8/31 Video Blog

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8/31 Gustav this afternoon

Stats:
Velocity: 18mph NW
Pressure: 957mb

The models have shifted a little bit to the West, but this doesn't change the landfall very much.  We are still looking at experiencing tropical storm force winds from Forrest and Jones county.  

8/31 Gustav in the Gulf

The big news this morning is Gustav's weakening.  Apparently the western tip of Cuba dealt Gustav a higher card than anticipated for weakening.  Stats:

Winds: 120mph
Pressure: 960mb
Velocity: NW 17mph

After a quick calculation, Gustav will make landfall in about 19 hours (Mon 5AM) if the system maintains constant speed.  Although early predictions suggest a slowing down before landfall.  The slow movement at landfall will cause major problems because Hurricane winds can pound Louisiana cities for several hours.  

With Gustav moving quicker than anticipated...I would expect our forecast this afternoon to see some outer bands from the storm, and conditions should decrease throughout the night tonight for those along the coast and northward.  
At this current point in Gustav's life Tropical storm winds extend 200 miles from the center of rotation, which means a landfall around Houma, LA, puts Forrest and Jones County on the fringe of 39+ mph winds.  

More to come later.....

Saturday, August 30, 2008

8/30 Gustav Update 2

The forecast track has not changed much. In fact, I have been watching the last 24 hour satellite loop and become a little uneasy about the northward movement. As Gustav punched through Cuba, the system has made more of a northern turn, but the hurricane recon aircraft still reports a northwest movement at 15mph. During this time I still have to trust the future strengthening of the High over the Great Lakes by Sunday night. Once the high becomes involved we should really begin to see a true NW movement towards SE Louisiana.

The eye did slightly decrease in stature while rolling over Cuba, but Gustav merely maintained it's strong Cat 4 strength. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a Cat 5 tomorrow morning, but the Cat 5 status is expected to diminish within 24 hours of development.

I will have more for you in the morning.

Please feel to email me for discussion at tcade@wdam.com

8/30 Gustav

This is an image from our Mississippi Power Titan Radar at 2pm where you can clearly see the eye of Gustav about to move across Cuba.

Gustav has finally come around to it's projected "mega" performance, and, just like Katrina, we saw rapid intensification in a short time. Here Gustav has increased from a Cat 1 of 80mph to a Cat 4 with 145 mph winds within the last 12 hours. Also in the same time frame the pressure has continued to drop from 975mb to 945mb. Now let me remind you, a hurricane is labeled a Category 5 when the winds are greater than 155mph and the central pressure is below 920mb. I tell you this because we have a very good chance of seeing Gustav become a Category 5 sometime tonight.

Please tune in to tonight's 6 and 10 newscast where I will break down some new updates. I will also be updating this blog more frequently from today till Gustav makes landfall.

Please feel free to email me your thoughts, tips, suggestions, pictures, and/or discussion topics at tcade@wdam.com

Friday, August 29, 2008

Thursday, August 28, 2008

8/28 Tropical Update

Model consensus has shifted a notch west this morning. The model's new placement is partially due to Gustav's location farther south/west than predicted, but I also believe the ridge is picked up a little better in the model runs.  
Gustav is expected to strengthen within the next 48 hours. I wouldn't surprised to wake up Saturday morning to a Cat 3 in the Yucatan Channel.  Once Gustav moves past Jamaica and Cuba I expected the forward motion
 to increase through the open Gulf.  
One thing I have continued to look at is the focus on the performance in the Pacific/East Asia.  Usually we can line things up with t
he Gulf Coast and forecast the strength of trough/ridge 7-9 days out.  Today we are only 5 days out from Gustav's landfall but we can still track the motion across the Pacific Ocean.
This system moving across is another additive to show me a ridge effecting the Eastern US by Tueseday/Wednesday.  

Initial perspective still leans me to forecast landfall in SE TX and SW LA.  High risk areas include Houston, TX through LaFayette, LA.  

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

8/27 Quick Update

Of course many people know we have been looking at National Hurricane Center Gustav Track that shows a possible MS Coast landfall.  

My day has been spent looking over models, material, discussions, and continuing conversations with other respected meteorologist.  At the end of the day, I am a meteorologist who will exhaust all options before coming down to a final decision.  I will not settle for a simple line projection.  

The Bermuda High is one factor that is continually overlooked in forecast.  Also, teleconnections analysis of East Asia/Western Pacific performance in the last few days foreshadows the impact of  High building in the East Coast/Western Atlantic.  My thoughts still sit on a TX/LA stateline landfall.  

It is important to always be prepared and have plans, but it is important to note the majority of the Gulf Coast is considered about Gustav.

I will have more updates later

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Weather Pictures


Along Hwy 11 last week:











Looking NE from our station
8/26/08












Beautiful Blue sky behind the clouds

8/26/08


Please feel free to take pictures of the current weather scene and send them my way. tcade@wdam.com
Who knows, maybe I will use them on-air or in this blog...

8/26 Video Blog: Gustav

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Monday, August 25, 2008

8/25 New Tropical Activity

We can't settle down very long because today we officially have another tropical storm to study.  Tropical Storm Gustav became organized rather quickly today to be the 7th named storm of the season.  Currently, Gustav sits SE of Port Au Prince Haiti in the Caribbean.

Stats:
Max Winds: 60mph
Direction: NW 12 mph
Min. Pressure: 996mb

We have followed this tropical wave for the past few days, but we were wanting to put more focus on our forecast with Fay.  Since the remnants of Fay is slowly moving out of our region, we can now put more time into Gustav's forecast.  
To be honest, Gustav is still a long way off.  Many things can happen in the next week to help change any model's forecast between now and next Monday.  One thing is for sure, Gustav is in position for a unsettling scnenario throughout the whole Gulf.  Models are showing two distinct tracks.  One track shows a strong High pressure over Florida kicking Gustav into the Yucatan Pennisula, but the 2nd model track leads Gustav into the eastern portion of the Gulf.  

The scene is set.  Now we will wait to see what unfolds.  I will always have my eye on Gustav as he slowly moves into warmer water and favorable environmental conditions within the next 24 hours.  In fact, I won't be surprised to see Gustav named as a Cat 1 Hurricane tomorrow morning.  Also, if Gustav is to influence our weather, we won't see influence from Gustav until Sunday/Monday.  

As for now...I know we will all enjoy the sunshine and muggy air throughout the Pine Belt


Sunday, August 24, 2008

8/24 Rain Totals

Here are some totals for our region:

WDAM-TV (Eastabuchie): 1.36"
Bobby L. Chain Airport: 0.89"
Pine Belt Airport: 1.41"
Jon E. Lewis Field (Pike County): 1.59"
Meridian, Key Field: 0.94"
Jackson Int Airport: 1.26"

Overall, the rain totals were less than expected, but we are not finished with "total event" rain. Fay's remnants will still create more rain in the Southern Regions. Along with cities along I-59 and Hwy 45, I expect George County and Stone County to receive more rain through Mon PM.

8/24 Video Blog

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Saturday, August 23, 2008

8/23 Fay Update


Fay has officially moved on land. Is Fay on land for the final time? Yes, I believe the remainder of Fay's life will be spent over land.

From the last few hours, the IR Satellite loop shows a definite NW turn. The exact rout of Fay will play a big role in our weather since different quadrants of tropical storms experience different events. Right now, I am seeing the center of Fay to pass almost directly over Hattiesburg/Laurel, which would put most of the rain NE of us. Very high rain totals will still be found in the Pine Belt, but I do expect extreme amounts for people along the I-20 corridor. Of course, I am talking about amounts within a combined 3 days (roughly).

One thing I am watching is the performance of the high pressure system over the Northeast U.S.
I do expect Fay to slow down over Central Mississippi, which will allow these high rain totals. Fay's slow down is connected with the High's location and strength. Most models show the high weakening by Tuesday and allowing Fay to exit NE by Wednesday.

8/22 Quick Update

Obviously Fay has maintained the western direction we anticipated a few days ago, but we are now going to slow start seeing Fay's impact in the Pine Belt.  I would expect the main rainbands start to reach our region sometime this evening.

In Fay's path I have seen areas in FL receive a lot of rain out of the tropical storm.  Most recently, I've spotted between 1" to 5" from areas within 100 miles of the coast in FL/GA.  I am expecting this to be insight on our rain forecast.  

A more in-depth forecast to come later this evening...

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Fay Update 8/19

First of all, I had a great time today at the Jones County Mitigation Hazards Public Meeting! It was an honor to represent WDAM's weathercenter and to be able to share with others how we "serve the public" during severe weather events. Thank you to all of you who were able to make it out today.
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One thing is for sure...Fay is different. The whole life cycle of Fay has been a different experience. When the tropical storm was 300 miles south of Florida we still had a forecast cone stretching across the whole state of Florida. Once Fay made landfall we began to see signs of strengthening, which is completely opposite to our science of tropical storms. Now we begin to forecast Fay to doubleback into NE Florida on Thursday, but we still don't have a strong grasp on Fay's track after she begins to move back west.

I am only certain Fay will go down in the books as a rare and abnormal event.

Forecasting Fay:
My eye is still focused on the high pressure just north of "the mitten" of Michigan. A few models are too far south on intializing the High, but GFS seems to be one of the closest models in initialization stage (along with the European). This is interesting because the GFS is one of the few models still showing Fay entering back into the Gulf. Initialization is an important stage in using models to forecast because you must know where a model is starting/beginning before looking into the future.
My thoughts are still similar to yesterday...I still expect this High to move more eastward and cause Fay to cut across the southern edge of Georgia while maintaining a land-only track.

Showers are still in our forecast for tomorrow afternoon (similar to today). Yet again, I am still keeping a close eye on our weekend forecast here in the Pine Belt.

tcade@wdam.com

Monday, August 18, 2008

Fay's Forecast

Well Fay is expected to make landfall overnight in SW Florida.  The track across Florida is the general path I expected (even though landfall will be a little farther south than expected).  The biggest concern for me is Fay's track on Wednesday/Thursday.  There is a high pressure located just north of Wisconsin.  Why do I mention this?  Because the high pressure system is expect to move ESE in the next 2-3 days and impact the forward progress of Fay's NE movement.  This is the reason why several models are beginning to show Fay double-back into the Gulf, but the strength of the High definitely controls the outcome.  The farther south this high pressure system travels might also reflect the southern vector of Fay's future motion back west.  

My hope for this forecast is simple.  I'm hoping for Fay to complete it's westward movement on land and not enter the Gulf of Mexico again.  Entering the Gulf again could cause issues.

Our forecast:

The low pressure system in SE Texas will influence our chance of rain tomorrow.  I expect a chance of showers across the region tomorrow afternoon.  Wednesday looks drier, but I'm more focused on our weekend forecast.  I'll have updates later...

As for now, you can catch me tomorrow afternoon at JCJC for the Jones County Multi-Jurisdiction Hazard Mitigation Plan public meeting.  I'll be speaking tomorrow on our role, as WDAM-TV, in severe weather.    I'm looking forward to a wonderful time meeting those in Jones County!

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Fay Tropical Update

First of all, in today's technology I can't believe the model's still show disagreement while Fay is a mere 275 miles away from the Florida Keys.

The latest update shows me still a diverse grasp on Fay's forecast. BAMM and NOGAPS and even the NAM are still forecasting a panhandle landfall. UKMET and NGFDL have moved a little back to the West Coast bend in Florida. GFS HWRF and GFDL still show a near-Tampa landfall.

In this forecast I am curious about the influencing shear within the next 24 hours for Fay, but I am also curious to see how the incoming trough in the middle of the country will interact with Tropical Storm Fay. If Fay comes ashore around Tampa then we could find ourselves in the middle of a drier slot compared to the states and east and west of us. With our midweek forecast, Fay will be in/around Georgia along with another Low in SE Texas. To me, this is a very interesting situation for our forecast. The interaction of the two is key, but I do believe we will not experience a completely dry week with our continued influence of moisture from the Gulf. Wed/Thur for Central and Northern Mississippi looks a little drier, but our friends in AR and LA look wet.

As for Fay, I am still focused on the Western Bend in Florida. This area is north of Tampa and west of Gainesville. I will keep you updated throughout the week for new updates. Thanks for checking in

tcade@wdam.com

8/17 Fay Update


Most recent forecast for Fay is a little more westward than yesterday's forecast, but this forecast is more inline with my thinking.

I'll have a full Weather Roundup at 10p.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Tropical Talk: Fay 2

Hurricane Hunter Aircraft has returned from their late-evening trip.
Winds have gone down a tad to 45mph, but the most recent satellite image shows better organization. Fay has slowed a bit in it's westward movement, but the next 24 hours should result in strengthening while moving more NW.

Breaking down the models:
NOGAPS and BAMD are the only two models forecasting a Western Panhandle landfall, and CMC is the only model forecasting a landfall on the Southern most tip of Florida near Miami. The rest of the models forecast landfall near Tampa.

My thoughts:
Still a very tough forecast. I am definitely curious about the next 24 hours and how things play out. My forecast right now would call for landfall just north of Tampa in the Florida Bend. Stay tuned tomorrow because I will put into consideration the new developments.

Thanks for checking in

Tropical Talk: Fay

Tropical Storm Fay is churning just South of Cuba and moving slowly to the WNW. The latest look at the IR Satellite indicates a few areas of convection developing in the SE quadrant, but overall strengthening isn't extremely impressive at this current time.

Before we talk about Fay, I must remind us all to stay conservative in this situation. My main goal is to discuss Fay as she is developing, but I am not looking to over-hype the scenario.

After looking at several models, discussions, and tropical data, I have determined this a difficult forecast. Within the next 36 hours a couple of huge things could happen to alter Fay's forecast. Overall most models are showing a West Florida landfall, but some outliers have a track around the Western Panhandle and even along Florida's east coast. As most models project West Florida they also agree with a Cat 1 landfall (which does not cause main structural damage). Although the biggest factor in Fay's development includes the interaction with land.

Land is a big inhibitor to tropical storm growth. For tropical storm growth a storm needs warm water (typically 80ยบ and above), a low shear environment, and the ability to breathe in moisture. Land helps inhibit growth by a cutting off the connection to water and allows drier air to enter the storm. So as Fay may ride alongside and then cross the land of Cuba, we will certainly see a decrease in convection while moving over Cuba.

At this time we are continuing to watch the directional influence of Fay's surrounding scene. Things such as a high pressure system can control tropical storms, and a high pressure system in the Gulf is forecast to break down by tomorrow evening. The break down of the ridge will allow Fay to take a more Northerly track, but a maintained ridge will allow a more westward movement.

Also, one small change in movement can make a huge difference in Fay's strength at landfall. The more time Fay spends in the Gulf then more convective growth I will expect in Fay's development.

Overall, Fay is tricky. So much depends upon the next 24 to 36 hours.
I will have an update by 10pm.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

8/12 Day Wrap-Up

With still one more line of storms making it's way across South Mississippi, we have had a very active weather day in the Magnolia State. Let's start with looking at the rain totals by 10pm:

WDAM: 1.26"
PIB: 1.20"
Bobby L Chain: 0.52"
John E. Lewis Field (Pike County): 1.06"
Meridian, Key Field: 1.71"
Jackson International: 2.27"

Some huge totals were found in the Delta... Mayersville, MS 5.89"...Chatham, MS 3.48"...even Eudora, AR 5.83" (Although I must remember these totals are not quality controlled) But incredible no doubt! And we still have one more line to move through later on tonight!

As for the tornado warnings earlier, thank goodness we didn't not see a confirmed tornado. As we tracked the storms across the state today. The only storm reports we have seen involve trees blown over from the isolated strong wind. I know Petal lost power for a couple hours today due to a tree falling on a power line.

8/12 Tornado Warnings

As Nick is about to cut-in to live coverage on Channel 7, I am looking at this line of storms that is pushing through Southern Wayne county and another cell pushing through Central Perry County.  In fact, the 2nd cell pushing through central perry county just had a severe thunderstorm warning declared for it's position and movement eastward into Alabama.  

Once again, a tornado warning simple means radar indications show the capability of a tornado forming.  I have not heard or seen any confirmation of an actual tornado.  Please call or email in storm reports.

I am still watching the 2nd cell b/c i have a good couplet picking up on my radar.  We'll keep you posted. Please tune in to our webcam at www.wdam.com

tcade@wdam.com

8/12 Tornado Warnings

Tornado Warnings just came off the wire for SE Jones County, NW Greene County, NE Perry County, and Southern Wayne County till 5pm

Strong couplet has developed very quickly as a line of storms rolled over Hattiesburg. More updates to come.  Please click on www.wdam.com and go to the weather page where you can view a live webcam.  

tcade@wdam.com

8/12 Rain Reports

As I type this a strong line of storms is pushing through Forrest and Jones County.  Here are the current rain totals we have so far at 4pm

Eastabuchie (WDAM): 0.95"
Bobby L Chain Airport: 0.17"
John E Lewis Field (Pike County): 0.90"
Pine Belt Regional: 0.80"
Jackson International Airport: 2.26"
Meridian, Key Field: 1.18"


Sunday, August 10, 2008

Tricky forecast this week


The biggest thing I have seen from today is the major influence of the weakening high pressure system diminishing the rain as it entered our region this evening. I saw a weakening high pressure system b/c I fully expect this system to be completely gone in about 12 to 24 hours. This being said, precipitation will build into our day tomorrow. (the image at the top is the QPF for Monday through Tuesday: produced by NWS)

Overall, the models do not agree, but the main synopsis is the progression of the low pressure system creating a good chance of rain through Wednesday. WRF actually shows the best shot at rain Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning as a shortwaves pushes through our region. This shortwave will come after Monday's upper-level divergence, which will become a main mechanism to help create lift and produce our rain forecast. This forecast is tricky for me and several other forecasters b/c the timing and location of the rain is hard to find during this upper-level divergence.

The shortwave pushing through on Tuesday is a little easier to pick out the timing and location as it will move through like a typical front. WRF, GFS, and NAM models are similar on the timing and location of this shortwave. WRF is a little more extreme in rain totaling over 2 inches in some locations through Tuesday night.

My thoughts...Monday is the most difficult, but I wouldn't be surprised to see showers influencing our viewing region west of I-59. As the evening moves along, I would expect the precip to roll into our eastern counties. Then, tuesday should start off clear on our radar, but the best chance of rain should roll in by the late-afternoon. This precip looks to last until early Wednesday morning. In the end, a lot can change in this forecast within the next 24 hours. As with any forecast, mother nature can throw us a curve ball and reassign the location and timing of Monday/Tuesday's events.

Remember to catch Rex's forecast tomorrow morning and at mid-day. He will definitely have a good wrap with the updated products.

Last note: Things are looking interesting in our tropical forecast. A couple of global models are showing 3 low pressure systems in the atlantic by the end of the week.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Things Looking Wet

Yes, today was still warm, but it was a beautiful day. I will take these dewpoint temps in the mid-50s any time during the month of August. The lower dewpoint allows the air to feel drier rather than the muggy, humid, weather we usually find ourselves experiencing. With the temps, here at the station we dropped to 58 this morning, and I know this a recent record. As far back as I can tell, we haven't seen 58 degree on August 9th. HBG, hattiesburg-laurel, airport only reached a low of 63, while their record low was 58. *Remember our WDAM station in Eastabuchie usually is a few degrees lower than the surrounding area.

Future Days:
I hope you enjoyed today because we are about to jump head first into a rainy forecast. The high pressure over us will begin to progress eastward tonight, which will allow an increased flow of moisture moving ahead of an incoming trough/low pressure system. This system should begin to impact our region by Sunday afternoon.
After this system reaches our area, I am expecting a good bit of rain for the next 3 to 4 days. This trough slowly moves through Monday, and Tuesday will also usher in a shortwave to help produce more rain. As the low moves through, the WRF model actually shows an above average value for Helicity and CAPE. Although I am expecting the most rainfall to drop between us and the TN line in North Mississippi for Monday.

Overall, this is a very difficult forecast. Several models seem to be confused over the initialization, movement, and speed of these two upcoming upper level disturbances. In fact, I am looking forward to tracking the progression of our weather tomorrow to quickly find a stronger grasp on the Monday through Wednesday forecast.

Please feel free to email me your comments at tcade@wdam.com

Friday, August 8, 2008

Record LOW?

As predicted, we saw nearly an inch for everyone in the Pine Belt last night.  The rain is good to have, but the rate at which it fell is always dangerous.   I know I had to be careful on the roadways in Hattiesburg, and I hope you were not caught driving through a flash flood.

Today I still wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of showers formed South of 42, but things should clear up by late-afternoon. 

A few things from this rain event.  1) We can further understand how summertime events do not need much lifting to create major precip.  Several regions saw rain yesterday, including us, from being on the backside of the trough axis, but we also found ourselves in a bit of a shortwave as well.  2) The models were on.  Seven days ago the models were forecasting for rain on thursday.  We don't see that predictability during the summer.  3) I now further understand the poor drainage within the city of hattiesburg.  Be aware folks and drive safe.  

A look ahead:
Record LOW in August? We could see record lows tonight with temps dropping to the 60 degree mark.  The lack of moisture in the air and the clear skies will help temps drop.

Put the summertime trend on hold.  More rain is in the forecast, potentially impacting our region Late Sunday night into Monday.  

-Tomorrow I will talk more on our upcoming rain forecast.  As for now, enjoy the clouds today and the clear skies tomorrow! (Saturday = great day for golf or to be on a lake)

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Chance of Rain Ahead

Yesterday and today combined for a drier weather experience, but a small change is ahead.  Both NAM and GFS models show a good shot at some precip from Thursday night into Friday.  The GFS shows the best chance running through the Pine Belt within the daytime hours on Friday.

The main kicker for this forecast appears to be a major trough digging into the East coast again (just like last week), but the combination of the trough and a shortwave will bring us the opportunity for rain.  A small vorticity maximum will claim it's property over the Red River region Thursday night, and this setup should provide the majority of Mississippi with precip starting Thursday night.  

This setup will last until Friday night, but Saturday will enter in a 48 hour change as the trough will slowly exit east.  Although we will find ourselves back into another chance of rain next week from early to mid-week.  This will solely occur with an increase in moisture and another shortwave (yet again).  

My thoughts: Our best chance of rain in the immediate future definitely seems to be between early morning and late evening on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few people near I-55 see some precip late Thursday night.  Jumping into the weekend, this time of year I am definitely expecting a few isolated storms with afternoon heating, but these storms will diminish with the loss of stability at night.  The next best chance of rain past this weekend does seem to show up on Tuesday, but this time could see some changes since it is past my "3 day" limit.  

In the end, we need the rain.  1) Because the region is still in a drought. 2) Because it will keep our temps down.  

Thank you
Please feel free to email me anytime at tcade@wdam.com
 

Sunday, August 3, 2008

8/03 Tropical Storm Edouard


Within an hour, the tropical depression in the Gulf turned into Tropical Storm Edouard, our 5th named Atlantic storm this year.

To me, this is a very interesting development since it's initial growth into a tropical low. Edouard essentially is from the leftover energy from the frontal system this past Thursday/Friday. Although now it is equally as interesting how Edouard has happened to form off the coast of MS/AL yet will not move into our viewing area. The high pressure system over the Southern Plains is the main controller of our forecast and the forecast for Edouard.

All models are pointing in the same direction. Galveston, Texas, seems to be the central location for landfall early Tuesday morning, but this position could waverer a bit North and South depending upon the exact movement of the Ridge over the ARLATX. Also, Edouard will be encountering a little shear throughout the night, which will cut off some of the convective growth. I am also agreeing with the models by forecasting Edouard to strengthen in the next 48 hours before landfall, and I would not be surprised to see this system turn into a Cat 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. In the rudiments of meteorology, a strengthening tropical system as it makes landfall is more dangerous than a dying system during landfall. The continued convective growth of a tropical storm creates the mixing down of higher winds aloft to the surface, and we similarly saw this with Hurricane Dolly a couple weeks ago.


Last note, our forecast has also changed a bit after the development of last night's storms and tropical storm Edouard. The Heat Advisories are mainly for our friends in Northern Mississippi as our temps will be leveled out with influence from the Gulf.

Saturday, August 2, 2008

8/02 Heat

The main story for the next week: the heat. An extreme heat advisory has been issued for the majority of the Central U.S. In our region, I will expect a the NWS in Jackson to hold onto our Heat Advisory through at least Tuesday afternoon. Most models are agreeing on a strong ridge sustaining in the South through about mid-week, but we often see this come into play during the 8th month of the year.

Concerning the heat, I will definitely expect our friends in the Delta to reach heat index values above 110 for the next couple of days. If you want to talk about being lucky, I would say our influence of the Gulf of Mexico will help keep our temps in the mid-upper 90s, but the temps will definitely feel hot as our heat index will still be around 105. The Delta doesn't have as much influence from the Gulf so their temps will rise into the triple digits.

In case you are curious, a good heat index calculator can be found from El Paso's Office at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/elp/wxcalc/heatindex.html

During this heat, please help me tell others about their safety. Heat waves are known as a silent killer throughout the nation. Extreme temperatures are hardly noticed until they cause some one to faint or become ill. Please spread the word to remind people to drink plenty of water and stay in the A/C. Thank you.

One last note, there is a low pressure system, Invest 91, that has formed in NE Gulf. Most models have this system moving to the west, but this system should reach Texas by Tuesday without changing our forecast. There is a slight chance we will see a shower or two from the outskirts of the system, but I wouldn't expect many people to experience this event.