Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Could we have a cold March?

Usually I like to sit down and keep track of what is happening on a global scale to see what will be coming our way. In our short-term forecast we will see a nice warming trend, but things could be swinging into a cooler trend by the end of week 2 in March. This cooler trend could be coming due to some models predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation going slightly negative. This means colder air will be invited to come into the Eastern Corridor of the nation around March 13-16. But how far South will the cold air get? I'm cautious about the cold air reaching us because usually the GFS long-range model runs cold air too far south in the long term forecast. Could this model be trending to it's bias? Otherwise, the Canadian Model keeps the cold air "slightly" to the North of the Pine Belt. Also, National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has the whole nation "Below Normal" (which is rare to see) for days March 11-17.

In the end, long term forecast are still very difficult to land even in today's great technology. Stay tuned as we will keep you updated on the long term forecast. One thing we are certain about is the warmup these next few days so please get out there and enjoy it!

Tanner Cade-tcade@wdam.com

1 comment:

Hurricane City said...

Dude, I've got to disagree on being COLDER for March!!! I seeing Mar 9 - 13 Temps Slightly Above Normal and Rainfall Much Above Normal for that period. Look for yourself at http://wdamweatherblog.blogspot.com/ .