Saturday, April 18, 2009

Thunderstorms on...

Didn't get to hit very many points during my forecast at 6pm, but we obviously have a good shot of thunderstorms overnight into Sunday morning. So far the models are in rare disagreement with an event less than 12 hours out. Although model consensus does agree with the cold front running through tomorrow evening. The biggest question is the exact timing and location of the overnight thunderstorms. It looks like the main moisture could be trapped by a coastal influence, but the majority of our activity will probably occur after our 10p newscast and into mid-morning. The highest instability will form at around 7am in sw miss, and this significant instability is one reason why we are under a Slight Risk of Severe activity tomorrow. This translates into "Thunderstorms capable of becoming Severe 'in nature' before Noon". This system is currently only producing major rain and isolated strong wind reports along TX/LA.

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