Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Tropical murmurs abound

Some folks in the weather world are mumuring over the ramp in activity starting mid-August and into September. This would not be an obvious comment in most years because we typically have more activity in the months of August/September. But in a year when the tropics have been very quiet, it's a bold statement to hear someone say they are highly confident tropical activity will increase. (I guess there is only way to go...) A couple of Global Model Forecast show an enhanced probability in the coming weeks. An experimental Tropical Cyclone Probability Forecast shows a marked ramp up in activity starting in mid-August, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) favors tropical development in it's forecast as well. Interesting facts to note, but only time will tell.

As of now, we are watching a cicle of convection march westward near 35W in the Atlantic. Compared to the season, this is a very healthy storm, but it has a long way to go before being a serious concern.

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