Sunday, August 16, 2009

Tropical Storms Update (Sunday Afternoon)

Tropical Storm Claudette continues it's northwest movement towards Panama City. Radar loop from the KTLH in Tallahassee clearly shows the cyclonic rotation in the rain/thunderstorms. In fact, the main threat with Claudette is the heavy rain, but wind doesn't seem to be a major factor. Only one or two isolated areas very close to right side of the center will see 45+ winds.

Ana has now become a tropical depression as it continues to fight off dry air and shearing. The system was very small to begin with, and I expect the storm to continue to disipate into Monday. My main concern comes at the end of the week. It might quietly sneak through into the Gulf and then develop into a Tropical Storm again.

Tropical Storm Bill is a real "beast" at this point. The storm has impressive banding and outflow, which makes me think the storm will continue to intesify. Bill could easily be a hurricane by Monday. The GFDL has Bill becoming a Cat. 4 by weeks end. Where is Bill going? The GFS model has finally agreed with reliable EMCWF and turned Bill into the Atlantic. A break in the Atlantic Ocean ridge will allow the strong storm to move in a northerly vector by Tuesday.

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