Wednesday, September 2, 2009

The name is Erika

Clouds have built quickly into the area today from the East. We normally don't have an easterly flow at this time of the year, but an inverted trough helps transfer today's activity. Moisture will continue to increase in the midlevels throughout the day, but I don't expect any shower activity.

Watching the tropics:
Tropical Storm Erika is holding onto to Tropical Storm status with a weakening trend. Erika doesn't have much movement with upper levels winds calm at this time. So the forecast doesn't move the storm very far Northwest in the next 5 days. Model forecast track and intensity are very diverse at this point. A strong models consensus is yet to be seen, and GFS has the system maintain a weak intensity but entering the Gulf in a week. Canadian turns Erika North at the Bahamas to impact the East coast. NoGaps pulls the system more to the East...similar to Bill. And our trusty European model takes Erika along the east coast.

The intensity models also range greatly on Erika. As seen by the image...
So much is to say about this storm in the next few days. We'll have to wait on the intensity. NHC keeps it a Tropical Storm Through 5 days out.

My thoughts on Erika:
As of today, I think the weak Ridge will remain in place to cause Erika to move more westerly, but I feel like it's still an east coast storm. Erika's intensity and makeup will waiver a good bit in the next few days with disrupting shear and dry air inhibiting growth. But much is yet to be determined.

Enjoy the day!

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