Sunday, October 25, 2009

Active Weather Pattern this Week

After a wonderful Sunday things are changing in the next 24 hours. On Monday we will be a little warmer as we shift to a more southerly oriented flow bringing in more moisture and a Low Pressure system. A low will form over SW LA and skirt around the NW side of the Pine Belt. This will allow a good shot of rain late Monday night into Tuesday, but the system will eject quickly to North to clear things out on Wednesday. The position of the Low on Tuesday will create significant shear for our region, but the extreme lack of instability will dramatically reduce the chances of severe weather.

Our next big rain event will come at the end of the week. Starting on Thursday instability will increase for much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley as another cold front slowly approaches for the West. Models still differ a bit on the timing of this front and the push of cold air behind the front. My favored models are trending to only "mild" (seasonal) temps behind the frontal passage at the end of the week. A stiff setup will try to keep the cold canadian air out of the South.

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