Tropical Storm Ida is churning very well in NW Caribbean. Latest Summary:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
The intensity forecast expects Ida to peak into lower Category One characteristics going overnight into Sunday morning. BUT, as Ida enters the Gulf she will hit plenty of obstacles. Anyone can notice the very cool sea surface temperatures and see how this will hinder the growth. Storms love warm waters of at least 80 degrees, but temps are runnning near 70 degrees in the North Gulf.
This is a good sign for us because the forecast has Ida running near the MS/AL Coastline. An Eastward turn will occur but model consensus thinks this will occur before running over land.
Our impact is still tough to distinguish. Ida will most likely become extratropical nearing the coastline, but we will be on the NW side of the storm. I'm thinking the combination of a weak Low from West Gulf will interact with Ida and allow a good outbreak of rain in a northeast direction across MS/AL/ and GA.
Timing...Rain is expected to start on Monday and last through Early Tuesday Morning.