Friday, May 29, 2009

Clear Weekend

The clouds exit state left tonight as we begin to see a dry pattern shift into the Pine Belt. This weekend is completely different from last weekend (too bad this isn't the holiday weekend), but I'm sure you will be able to find plenty of outdoor activities this weekend. High pressure is sending a stable air mass over our head to deliver plenty of sunshine throughout the next few days. Then a low pressure system will form near midweek to try and force our next shot of showers, but I still have low confidence for squeezing any rainfall out of the system. As for now, please enjoy this weekend! Send your sunny weather pics to "Send it to 7" pics@wdam.com -Tanner tcade@wdam.com

Thursday, May 28, 2009

First Tropical Depression Forms

The first tropical depression of the season has formed off of the Mid Atlantic coast but poses no threat to the gulf coastal states. It may become "Ana" briefly before encountering cooler waters but should only be a shipping lanes threat. For us , we are in for an extended dry spell with warm to hot afternoons and mild nights. Rex

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Sunny, drier weather on tap for weekend !

For the next several days we will run the risk of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms but come late Thursday a front will sweep through the Pine Belt bringing with it sunny and dry weather for Friday , Saturday and Sunday. Highs each day will continue to be in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Don't forget that June 1st is the official start of the 2009 hurricane season ! Have a great day ! Rex

Monday, May 25, 2009

Not the best day for grilling

(Monday 9:20am) As many of you have already gathered, this Memorial day is not the best day to be cooking outside. The low pressure that we've been tracking for a week now is centered over Arkansas. As is sits there, it's funneling rain out of the Gulf of Mexico and dragging it directly over the Pine Belt.

As the day rolls along we can expect some breaks in the rain during the afternoon and evening but not enough to make a huge difference. I suggest you take a look at our "Future Cast" at the top of the WDAM Weather Page if you want to get a feel for the day.

As for the week... thanks to this low, we will have a similar pattern all week until a front pushes through late Friday. After that, some high pressure should take over and gives a few dry days.

-Nick

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Clearing Tonght

We've talked about rain for a long time and experienced a lot of rain this morning, but it seems the Low Pressure system moving out of the area is taking the rain for the remainder of the day as well. Mostly Cloudy skies tonight will remain till tomorrow morning. Then I expect to see showers pop-up near 1pm...which will only add more rain to the book. Will we see 10" in the month of May?

From the NHC @ 6:40am

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY...SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS NOW A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE LOW
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

Let's add more rain to the almanac

The track is important with this extratropical (no, it's not a tropical storm) system. It's known as extratropical because it has many characteristics of a tropical storm. One similar characteristic is most of the rainfall can be found on the northeast side of the Low, and the track seems to be just to our west, which can make for a very wet weekend. I'm currently looking at the heaviest rain impacting the pine belt midday saturday, but we should expect rain for mainly the whole day. I hope you can make the most of it on this Memorial Day weekend! -Tanner

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Umbrellas Needed !!

It's looking more and more likely that low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will have a very wet impact on our weather over the next several days. Rain chances are forecast to increase tonight and become high through the entire weekend. Several inches total can't be ruled out for some locations. So if you don't have an umbrella, now might a good time to invest in one. Rex

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Florida Low to Track into Gulf

(Tuesday 9:00pm) Our in house models predicts that the low pressure over Florida will head right into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours. At this time the National Hurricane Center is not running an official track or spaghetti models on the low, however shear is expected to weaken and we may see some better organization over the Gulf. The good news is that there's no deep warm water in the Gulf right now and we'll probably not see this system develop a warm core and become a full fledged Tropical Storm or Depression.

Nevertheless, rain will still be a possibility as early as Wednesday afternoon, but more likely later in the week into the weekend.

-Nick

Monday, May 18, 2009

As expected, Tropical Activity

Early this afternoon Invest90 came across the wire Northeast of Cuba. Invest90 is simply a generic name given to tropical disturbances before they are given a name. The generic name is given for computer models and meteorologist to identify the disturbance. Our new spaghetti model graphic shown during the evening newscast shows the BAMS model running the system through North Florida and cutting westward by Saturday. Although the GFS model makes the scenario interesting by developing a new Low Pressure System South of Florida, and the model then basically combines the two Lows and sends it into the Gulf. Either way, the outcome will be similar through Wednesday. Florida will be collecting a very large amount of rainfall, which they need at this time. After midweek many things can change. The system (either weak or strong) will wait to impact us by the end of the week. But how much rain will this system bring to us? Well I have low confidence in our rain forecast, but a slight chance will be reflected on the 2nd half of our 7Day forecast. We'll have new tropical updates tomorrow after Hurricane Hunter Recon data comes in. Stay tuned... -Tanner

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Friday, May 15, 2009

New Weather Gadgets For You!

At the top of our Weather Web page you may notice a new box that's titled "WDAM Weather Web Tools" This is for you! Future Cast is my personal favorite... many of you know it from watching us on TV. There's also a nationwide Surface Map and Severe Weather Outlook. As well as a Tri-state Radar that can be animated if you choose. This is useful for tracking approaching fronts. I hope you enjoy these, we'll bring you more in the near future.

-Nick

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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Gearing up for the Tropics

Well it's that time of year again. Can you believe it? June 1st will officially start Hurricane Season on paper, but we are already seeing some signs of early Low pressures forming over the Atlantic. Yes, computer models are simply computers which frequently change from day-to-day, but some notes are always interesting to look for while running through models. The latest run of the CMC (Canadian Model) shows a low pressure system forming off the coast of Florida five days from today (Wednesday, 5/13). NOGAPS model also shows a low pressure forming near the same time in the Northern Gulf, which is south of the Florida Panhandle. Water temps are near average, but they seem relatively warm already this year at 27C (~80F) off the South tip of FL. Another global forecast model has already tried to draw tropical activity from a run this past Sunday, but things the system was erased quickly on the next day. Take all of this with a grain of salt, but I hope you know we are getting ready to go for the 2009 Hurricane Season. Our newest update this Spring has given us impressive new graphics and material to use to better track Hurricanes. Please continue to be a faithful follow of the every-changing Channel 7 Weather Team as we are gearing up for a new season. As for now, follow us on twitter....

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-TC

The Week of Afternoon/Evening Showers

Here at WDAM studios, we've picked up over a half an inch of rain from afternoon/evening showers this work week. Some isolated locations have seen even more. It's pretty typical this time a year, but the fact that we have had frontal boundary marinating over Mississippi has only amplified the rain chances.

As we roll into Thursday and Friday expect this pattern to continue. It appears that we may roll into a more dry pattern next week.

-Nick

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Sunday, May 10, 2009

Active Weather Pattern

Here on Sunday night we are very moist and humid, which can easily trigger off healthy storms. The moisture and lift available will trigger some very tall cumulous thundestorms, and these storms will mainly be able to produce hail and major wind. Most of the atmosphere is very linear without much rotation, but the possiblity of a brief spin-up tornado should still be considered. This upperlevel boundary will hang around for Monday as well, and I expect some afternoon storms again tomorrow. Please take this time to follow us on twitter at twitter.com/wdamtannercade and twitter.com/wdamnickortego.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Hottest days of 2009... so far.

As we wrap up this work week expect the thermostat to crank up a little. I expect us to move into the +90 territory on Friday and Saturday. Plus, with an area of high pressure taking over we should be dry as well.

Friday will have a little relief that will come in to way of a stiff breeze out of the SSW. Gust could get into the 20s.

Enjoy the hot weather!
-Nick

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 05/06/09 04:05 PM CDT to 05/06/09 07:00 PM CDT for Clarke County, Covington County, Forr... http://bit.ly/XyknP

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 03:40 PM CDT to 05/06/09 04:00 PM CDT for Greene County, Perry County, Wayne ... http://bit.ly/RuYpN

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 03:43 PM CDT to 05/06/09 04:15 PM CDT for Greene County, Wayne County. http://bit.ly/TUtgB

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Tornado Warning from 05/06/09 03:32 PM CDT to 05/06/09 04:00 PM CDT for Forrest County. http://bit.ly/12nnia

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Tornado Warning from 05/06/09 03:13 PM CDT to 05/06/09 04:00 PM CDT for Forrest County. http://bit.ly/o9Zm9

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 03:11 PM CDT to 05/06/09 04:15 PM CDT for Greene County, Wayne County. http://bit.ly/UR90w

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 02:56 PM CDT to 05/06/09 04:00 PM CDT for Greene County, Perry County, Wayne County. http://bit.ly/o17Qc

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 02:47 PM CDT to 05/06/09 03:30 PM CDT for Covington County, Forrest County, Jones C... http://bit.ly/FQP7A

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 02:33 PM CDT to 05/06/09 03:30 PM CDT for Jones County. http://bit.ly/2PjhZ

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 02:35 PM CDT to 05/06/09 03:00 PM CDT for Jones County. http://bit.ly/MIflX

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 02:17 PM CDT to 05/06/09 03:00 PM CDT for Jones County. http://bit.ly/11dQhK

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 02:07 PM CDT to 05/06/09 02:30 PM CDT for Clarke County. http://bit.ly/13WtRX

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 02:05 PM CDT to 05/06/09 02:30 PM CDT for Wayne County. http://bit.ly/qlcc9

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 02:00 PM CDT to 05/06/09 02:30 PM CDT for Clarke County. http://bit.ly/WZxgP

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 01:49 PM CDT to 05/06/09 02:30 PM CDT for Clarke County. http://bit.ly/Twitb

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 01:45 PM CDT to 05/06/09 02:30 PM CDT for Wayne County. http://bit.ly/14FTL7

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 01:36 PM CDT to 05/06/09 02:30 PM CDT for Clarke County. http://bit.ly/8vv0G

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 01:10 PM CDT to 05/06/09 02:00 PM CDT for Jasper County. http://bit.ly/BoK0b

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/06/09 12:48 PM CDT to 05/06/09 01:45 PM CDT for Smith County. http://bit.ly/M17Bs

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 05/06/09 12:37 PM CDT to 05/06/09 07:00 PM CDT for Clarke County, Covington County, Forrest Co... http://bit.ly/6KAgL

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 05/06/09 12:37 PM CDT to 05/06/09 07:00 PM CDT for Greene County, Perry County, Wayne County. http://bit.ly/42aYD

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

More Rain...

(10:13pm Tuesday) Our chance for rain will continue for two more days. There's a lot of energy back over Oklahoma and Arkansas right now that will make its way into North MS overnight. And there's about a 60% chance that we'll see some of that during the day Wednesday.

On top of that, a lingering boundary may give us a rain chance on Thursday too.

-Nick

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 08:21 PM CDT to 05/05/09 08:45 PM CDT for Jasper County, Smith County. http://bit.ly/16F0jQ

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 08:05 PM CDT to 05/05/09 08:45 PM CDT for Jasper County, Smith County. http://bit.ly/9hVmW

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 07:55 PM CDT to 05/05/09 08:15 PM CDT for Covington County, Jefferson Davis C... http://bit.ly/xlaw4

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 07:53 PM CDT to 05/05/09 08:15 PM CDT for Jasper County, Smith County. http://bit.ly/hOeyO

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 07:32 PM CDT to 05/05/09 08:15 PM CDT for Covington County, Jefferson Davis County. http://bit.ly/vCkXB

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 07:34 PM CDT to 05/05/09 08:15 PM CDT for Jasper County, Smith County. http://bit.ly/eXuGE

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 07:17 PM CDT to 05/05/09 07:45 PM CDT for Covington County. http://bit.ly/tpAPj

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 07:00 PM CDT to 05/05/09 07:45 PM CDT for Covington County, Jefferson Davis County... http://bit.ly/13rnz5

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 06:48 PM CDT to 05/05/09 07:30 PM CDT for Perry County. http://bit.ly/ylKb7

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 06:50 PM CDT to 05/05/09 07:30 PM CDT for Jefferson Davis County. http://bit.ly/IFQfz

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 06:32 PM CDT to 05/05/09 07:15 PM CDT for Jefferson Davis County. http://bit.ly/foRn5

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 06:18 PM CDT to 05/05/09 06:30 PM CDT for Forrest County, Jones County. http://bit.ly/19SFC2

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 05:44 PM CDT to 05/05/09 06:30 PM CDT for Forrest County, Jones County. http://bit.ly/SZX3R

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 05:17 PM CDT to 05/05/09 05:45 PM CDT for Marion County. http://bit.ly/pqXw0

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 04:59 PM CDT to 05/05/09 05:45 PM CDT for Covington County, Forrest County, Jeffers... http://bit.ly/Rjjjg

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 04:21 PM CDT to 05/05/09 05:00 PM CDT for Marion County. http://bit.ly/gIIsj

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 03:58 PM CDT to 05/05/09 04:30 PM CDT for Covington County, Smith County. http://bit.ly/11qIZp

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 03:55 PM CDT to 05/05/09 04:15 PM CDT for Perry County. http://bit.ly/rEfMb

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 03:31 PM CDT to 05/05/09 04:15 PM CDT for Perry County. http://bit.ly/BTvu0

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 03:25 PM CDT to 05/05/09 04:30 PM CDT for Covington County, Smith County. http://bit.ly/CwPeh

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 02:27 PM CDT to 05/05/09 03:15 PM CDT for Greene County. http://bit.ly/luR9Z

InteractiveNWS Alert

Event cancelled. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 02:39 PM CDT to 05/05/09 03:15 PM CDT for Greene County. http://bit.ly/JXs4x

InteractiveNWS Alert

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 05/05/09 02:27 PM CDT to 05/05/09 03:15 PM CDT for Greene County. http://bit.ly/tmCRz

Monday, May 4, 2009

Front Advances Through Pine Belt

After nearly a century of time spent to our northwest, the stalled boundary, now a "cold" front, is finally moving through the Pine Belt. Don't get too excited because the boundary will begin to transition into a warm front to tidy up for the next low pressure system. This can pop off some isolated showers tomorrow afternoon, but most folks probably won't see much in the way of showers. Wednesday is the next day where the boundary could easily fire off some storms in Central Mississippi, but the extent of how much it will impact the PIB is yet to be determined. For Wednesday some models show the majority of the rain North of Hattiesburg throughout central and northern MS. The moisture is strong enough to increase the probability of precip for Wednesday, but we'll fine tune the forecast a bit more going into the next few model runs. After Wednesday a couple of waves seem to try and stir up some showers into the end of the week, but the heat will be on with temps topping out near the 90 degree mark! -Tanner

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Showers still in forecast

I'm tempted to completely throw out both of the most commonly used models for the rain forecast. The analysis must be off because they are both off on the starting placement of the current showers. So my decision is to still to go along with the idea most models are trying to draw up. This idea includes bringing the rain chances back into the forecast very late tonight and very early in the morning. The rain should be stirred up by the advancement of the front as the leftover energy from today will be scooped into another boundary. Tomorrow looks like mostly cloudy with highs mostly in the upper 70's. -tcade@wdam.com

Strong Line of Storms

[Sunday 10:25am] A strong line of storms is quickly pushing through Natchez, MS, right now, and expect the line to make it into Walthall/Lawrence county in the next 20 minutes. Then I expect the storms to sweep through the rest of the Pine Belt. I've already received reports of hail and damaging winds along this heavy line, but only severe thunderstorm warnings have been posted along the current makeup of the activity. Stay tuned for more... http://twitter.com/wdamtannercade

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Sunday, not very quiet

A boundary has definitely claimed it's territory over North Central Mississippi today, but the system never made it's way south of Jackson. This was a good thing for many of us that were outside enjoying the weather at festivals and such. I'll expect things to change tomorrow as "cold" front will swing through our region. Most model consensus is showing an afternoon through late night event. Some rain can be left behind early Monday morning, but anything thunderstorms capable of being severe will probably be before the midnight hour. Yes, we are under a slight risk of severe weather for tomorrow, but it's a tough angle to completely determine the specific realms of any supercells breaking out across the pine belt on Sunday. Stay tuned to my twitter updates and our website for any information you need to know about breaking weather news. Have a good day! -tcade@wdam.com