Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Strong Front becomes stronger in West.

The clouds are becoming partly cloudy across the region after steady rainfall this morning. Also, the small Low aiding in the development of the rain is beginning to move northward to clear out of the area. I might have to raise the afternoon temp a degree since we are in a clear knotch in the middle of the system.

We will clear ourselves of any rainfall in the state this afternoon, but some moisture will be left behind as only slight cool air will drift in for a night. The setup will allow the opportunity to form fog, which I imagine will be around Wednesday morning. The fog will also play a tricky role in the overnight Low and tomorrow's high.

I'm expecting a very nice return flow from the gulf after tonight. So Wednesday and Thursday will be on the warm side. The chances for rain on Thursday still exist ahead of the front, but I've considerably dropped the rain chances for Thursday with the association of the High Pressure off the coast of Georgia/Florida. The Ridge (high) will walk east by Friday to allow the penetration of a strong cold front into South Mississippi.

Rain is likely on Friday afternoon/evening, but the best dynamics for Severe weather seems to be to the North of us with a very strong Upper jet streak diverting air aloft. Also, the system will move through very quickly according to model consensus so I expect a dry Saturday with only seasonal temps.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Active Weather Pattern this Week

After a wonderful Sunday things are changing in the next 24 hours. On Monday we will be a little warmer as we shift to a more southerly oriented flow bringing in more moisture and a Low Pressure system. A low will form over SW LA and skirt around the NW side of the Pine Belt. This will allow a good shot of rain late Monday night into Tuesday, but the system will eject quickly to North to clear things out on Wednesday. The position of the Low on Tuesday will create significant shear for our region, but the extreme lack of instability will dramatically reduce the chances of severe weather.

Our next big rain event will come at the end of the week. Starting on Thursday instability will increase for much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley as another cold front slowly approaches for the West. Models still differ a bit on the timing of this front and the push of cold air behind the front. My favored models are trending to only "mild" (seasonal) temps behind the frontal passage at the end of the week. A stiff setup will try to keep the cold canadian air out of the South.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Beautiful October Weather

Most of the clouds have moved out the region after the cold front moved east early this morning. The moisture has pleasantly dropped down as well.

Expect mostly clear conditions tonight with lows dippping into the mid 40's. A light NW wind will continue throughout the night and into tomorrow. A few clouds will linger around tomorrow morning, but Saturday will be mostly sunny with a high in the upper 60's. Then the coldest night this weekend will be Saturday night as some areas could see 39 degrees.

Our next chance of likely rain chances come into the forecast late next week. I'm confident it will rain late next week, but the timing is difficult to determine at this point.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Tornado Watch

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for COVINGTON, JEFFERSON DAVIS, SMITH, SIMPSON, LAWRENCE, MARION, LAMAR, AND FORREST Counties. The watch will last until 12AM.

This means some variables have the potential to produce a tornado.

The threat is still unlikely for tornadic activity, but this is a precaution for what could happen in-light of the atmospheric setup.

My opinion: The NWS seems very cautious with this event, but I think any tornadic activity is unlikely. A "spin-up" might happen as the front pushes through with a noticeable wind change from surface to the upper atmosphere.

Rain and Storms Tonight

Thunderstorms are moving through the lower Mississippi River Valley in association with a large swath of rain by a bold Low Pressure System. Plenty of rain was dumped on southeast Texas and Louisiana early today. I saw Shreveport experienced nearly 2.5" from the main line of rain.

Here is a quote from the latest Mesoscale discussion for eastern LA through southwestern MS...

I expect things to "downgrade"in severity as the main rain line pushes through the Pine Belt this evening and tonight, but a relatively micro low pressure area in Southern Arkansas could create some rotation in the atmosphere late tonight. I expect mainly lightning and thunder impedded in the storms. The highest instability seems to be along the MS Coast in Jackson, Harrison, and Hancock counties.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Clouds are here, Rain is coming

Clouds have rolled into our region, but no rain is associated with the cloud cover today. Although a LOW Pressure system has developed over the central plains and will track towards the Great Lakes through Friday morning. This will delivery the ingredients for rain late Thursday into Friday morning in South Mississippi. Some areas could find nearly an inch, but an isolated area could find totals near two inches.

850mb temps will drop behind the passage of the front early Friday morning, but this will not be as cold compared to last weekend. I'll expect over night temps Friday night and Saturday night to drop only into the 40's.

My long range forecast is looking down the barrel of an impressive cold air mass running through a majority of the country at the end of October. Halloween Saturday might involve a cool candy run.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Freeze Warnings in October?

Freeze Warnings have been issued from the National Weather Service Office in Jackson for Jasper and Clarke counties. (Other counties not in our viewing area include WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-

This freeze warning is due a stable air mass (high pressure) placing directly over central Mississippi going into the night. The contribution of the high pressure system is cold and dry air along with calm winds. All of these points will help drop temps across the area into the 30's. Some spots to the northeast of Hattiesburg will be in the main corridor of "coldest temps".

My opinion: I'm still a little concerned about the freeze warnings issued b/c of several factors. One factor is the warm soil temps. Even though a cold air mass is above the surface, it doesn't mean the soil is cold as well. Just a week ago, soil temps were still near 80 degrees. Also, I know radiation cooling will take place to remove plenty of energy from the surface, but dewpoint temps will hover near 33/34 degrees for a couple hours overnight. I believe most folks in our viewing area will stay between 35-37 tonight.

Also, some folks could see patchy frost develop before sunrise. Overall, this will be the coldest night of the season, but the next 3 days will steadily warm into the upper 70's again.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Saturday Notes and Such

A huge funnel of cold canadian air is pumping straight down the center of the country into South Mississippi. Today, strong winds have continued to sweep through the region. This allows the cool high of 56 to seem even colder, but tonight will continue to feel cold with temps dropping into the upper 30's. Although Sunday night will probably be the coldest night of the season with some Freezes watches issued across the state.

Our pattern will shift out of the cold air mass by Tuesday into more moisture flow from the S/SW. This will conclude with another LOW swinging through the country and providing showers for us on Thursday/Friday.

Overall, it seems the consecutive warm nights is an after thought of the warm 2009 season because we are settling into our typical fall season of cooler overnight lows and less humidity.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Much Cooler Weather Headed Our Way !!!

After few more days of showers-much cooler air will invade the our area for weekend! Highs Friday will reach the lower 70s and lows will be in the uper 40s ! Great football weather ! For Saturday highs may only reach the upper 50s and lows Saturday night will be around 40 and possibly upper 30s. Stay tuned ! Rex

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Cold front Thursday

A cold front will push through late Thursday bringing storms and cooler temperatures. The next few days will continue to have higher humidity streaming from the Gulf of Mexico, but a weak cold front will keep mid-Tuesday dry. Although a good chunk of moisture will return quickly late Tuesday for more rainfall going into Wednesday. Another story through Wednesday will be the return of warm temps ahead of a developing shortwave trough. This trough will be developing early Wednesday over the Central Plains and gain plenty of momentum with dense cold air pushing into the deep South late Thursday. Friday and the weekend looks chilly with temps in the 60's and overnight lows in the 40's. Theres a tough forecast on seeing exactly how low we will get Friday night and Saturday night, but the story will continue to be "cooler."

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Waiting on the next Front

The 90 degrees Friday afternoon quickly dropped down to a cool 70 degrees in the evening as a result to an October cold front. We are left now with overcast skies pocketing in temps in the lower 70's. Unfortunate to some, we aren't experiencing the bitter cold freeze warnings in Central Plains and Middle Mississippi River Valley, but the clouds will help maintain temps in the 70's through Monday.
My forecast story going into the next 7days follows this pattern, cloudy, warmer, muggy again, storms, major cold front, and cooler temps. Yes a warm front will creep north from the coast late Sunday producing rain over much of the area, but this will also allow our moisture to increase going into the week.
All week long models have tried to depict a major cold front dipping into mississippi, but each forecast has been delayed and delayed. I'm beginning to think this Friday will finally be the cold front we've all been looking for, which we usually have a major pattern change (into fall-like) by two and a half weeks into October. This includes overnight lows generally close to the 40's. I'll urge caution on the cold front forecast through today, but I'll be more confident tomorrow if the models are still in agreement.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The muggy days in October

I imagine I'm not the only one checking the calendar to make sure it is really the sixth day in October. Today we are experiencing a very warm outbreak of temperatures in the whole lower mississippi river valley. But I'm interested in much more than just the warm temperatures near 90 degrees, I'm talking more about the dewpoint temperatures of 73 and 74. This results in a relative humidity of 60%, and August is usually the month we have temps in the 90's with 60% humidity. In other words, its muggy outside.

This will be the trend going into the next few days. A cold front will pass to our north within 24 hours, but our heat relief will be minimal. Then another front will push through on Friday, and this is the relief we will be wanting. Temps after Friday will drop into the 70's, but overnight temps will still linger around 60. Not until a 3rd front pushes through early next week will we begin have seasonal overnight lows.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Typhoon could influence our forecast

Super Typhoon Melor in the far western Pacific Ocean will conceivably play a role in our forecast. In a similar effect of a running wave created by popping, or flipping, a rope, Super Typhoon Melor will propel a major wave in our evolving atmosphere across the United States. The act of a major typhoon typically enhances the trough and ridge patterns in North America. This will likely bring a cold Canadian air mass into the Southeast U.S., and more than one computer model forecast reflects this cold air mass setup. The GFS, Canadian, and European (ECMWF) long-range forecasting computer models all show a significant cold front pushing through our region next weekend. If all goes as planned, Columbus Day, on the 12th, will record the lowest temperatures for the season so far.

A cold front pushing through next weekend will be a pleasant break in our week-long warm, muggy, and wet forecast. Showers are expected on and off for the next 6 days. Then the passage of the cold front next Saturday will allow a cold air mass to rid our region of the warm, muggy, air mass.

Some extended forecast show October remaining dry and cool after this week. Feel free to tweet me at twitter.com/WDAMTannerCade or email me your questions at tcade@wdam.com

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Cue the Clouds and Rain

As scheduled, the clouds from the Low in Texas are building in our region. Also, Tropical Storm Olaf, near the Baja of California, is sending an addition jet of tropical moisture across the South. This system will be around for a few days, and our forecast reflects the influence of the Low pressure system. Warm and muggy are my terms I'm using to describe the conditions for next week. After a cloudy and wet Sunday and Monday, Tuesday/Wednesday will be in the mid-80's with high moisture content in the air.

Sunday's rain seems to be more abundant North of I-20, but through the Pine Belt we should see more of a scattered showers event. A line of showers could be swinging through later in the day.

As of now, this setup will be around through next Friday, but the weekend will finally have a front clear out the moist air mass. Long Range GFS shows a High pressure building for the 2nd work week of October, which will allow dry and clearer conditions.

Friday, October 2, 2009

October is usually dry but...

Early this morning the whole Pine Belt experienced the frontal passage. A cold front sweeped through the region deliverying about 0.50" for most of us. Here at WDAM-TV we received 0.61".

Our main weather story going into the first week in October will revolve around comparing October, normally the driest month of the year, to an unusually wet forecast. Our weather setup will have a strong pull of moisture with enough uplift to produce rainfall. Believe it or not, Tropical Storm Olaf near the Baja of California will contribute a moisture flow all the way into our area. Also the flow from the Gulf of Mexico will pump more moisture towards us. So combine these two mechanisms along with a "troughy" setup and we will have rain. Sunday will be the start to this deliverance of moisture with cloudy and wet conditions.

So much for a dry October...

Half a good weekend !

A front is sweeping through the area this morning taking the rain out of our area. High pressure will quickly build in and that will result in nice weather for area football games tonight. Saturday promises to be very nice with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 50s. By Sunday our beloved front backs up on us as a warm front bringing rain again to the Pine Belt. Looks to be a wet start for what is tradionally our driest month! Still looking for a possibloe brutal winter for our area. As soon as I get more on that outlook I will pass it along to you! Have a great weekend ! Rex