Sunday, January 3, 2010


Tonight I'm struggling to figure out the various ways to describe our cold forecast. It's simply cold. Four out of the next six nights I'm forecasting to be in the teens. Also, it seems plausible to have two days this week topping out in the 30's. Then we have to talk about the chance for wintry precipitation on Thursday's strong cold front.

An upper level trough will continue to rotate through the Southeast and continue to deliver a strong shot of cold air. This will allow a very chilly day tomorrow with the high barely touching 40 degrees, which means the majority of the day will be below 40! December 22, 2008, was the last day we spent below 40 degrees.

After Monday, the temperatures will rebound only a few degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the work week with a high in the upper 40's, but this will change quickly with an even stronger blast of cold air. Thursday will be highlighted in the forecast as the only day for likely precipitation. It's still difficult to specify the rain/snow line when precipitation will be coming down.

I've lowered Thursday's high into the upper 30's considering the cloud cover and cold start to the day. I'm expecting the temperature to struggle with the falling precipitation and moving cold front.

Will it snow on Thursday?
The cold air behind the front will definitely produce snow to our northwest, but it's difficult to depict a concrete situation for southeast Mississippi. The upper level sounding will all be below freezing till you get down to about 1,700 feet above the ground. The temperature from 1,700' should only rise a few degrees above freezing. So what does this mean? If this setup became true then we would see freezing rain/wintry mix changing to light snow. Most models at this point aren't bringing the best accumulating snow to South Mississippi, but any slight movements (50-100 miles) in the system's location could cause major changes in the forecast.

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