Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Friday rain maker

Beautiful weather in the Pine Belt today. We reached a high of 62 at the station.

Things will be changing here soon and begin setuping up for another rain event. Moisture will begin to return as our wind flow gains a southerly component and an upper level western flow. Clouds will also be building throughout the day on Thursday. Wednesday was very clear, but Thursday will be a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Expect a Low pressure system to build to our west and then move right through South Mississippi on Friday afternoon.

I expect the rain to move in the viewing area on Friday afternoon and stick around for the night. As the Low pushes through Mississippi the NW side of the Low (Northwest MS) could see some snow flurries. At this point, I don't expect any of the white stuff Friday night in South Mississippi, but an unlikely southerly track from the Low could change the forecast a tad. But once again, I don't expect to see any major snowflakes during this event. Nick and Rex will have the updates on this tomorrow, and Tanner will follow up on things this weekend.

The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has South Mississippi in the 2" window through Friday's rain event.

This weekend will be cool, but the long Range forecast have been difficult to determine at this time. I've noticed a difference from several model runs on what computers are thinking during the first week in February. I'm noting the Arctic Oscillation will be extremely negative, but the North Atlantic Oscillation (whichs helps lock cold air south) will be near neutral going into February. My opinion...I think we will be near climatology going into the 2nd month of the year with some chances to produce some numbers slightly below normal.

No comments: