Sunday, January 10, 2010

Sunday Night's Discussion

A typical trend might happen this week. The models might be moving the cold air out too quickly. Actually, model output statistics has lowered a couple of degrees through midweek and the end of the week's temperatures. This will have to be watched for a precise numbers forecast, but most of us won't really notice the forecast issue.

But most of us will all notice the sunny and dry week. Precipitation won't come around until Friday and Saturday. Thursday will be a great day to look at wind flow because we will finally have an impressive southwest flow from upper levels to the surface. This will pump increased moisture from our beloved Gulf influence. Then I expect to see a deep upper level trough sweeping across the country and influencing our rain event at the end of the week. I'm drawing in a surface Low moving in late Friday and producing rain into Saturday.

Extended forecast show a shift in closing out the month of January. I'm beginning to lean in the direction that we won't have the opportunity to see extremely cold temperatures again this season. Typically, January is the month we receive cold outbreaks and this month is trending warmer than the 1st half. In other words, the core of the cold air looks to be staying back in Canada for the average of the 2nd half of January, but I'm not saying we will have above normal temperatures. I still believe we could be at and near climatology to close out the month.

On a personal note: I'm ready for the hot summer days to roll back around. I think the length of this cold outbreak has made me wish for warmer days to come back quicker.