Wednesday, February 10, 2010

36 Hours away from Snow Event

I detailed some numbers this morning on how the whole snow forecast is evolving. We have more confidence in some details but we still have many question marks.

1) One computer model is faster with precipitation but lower on precipitation total.
2) Another computer model is slow with precipitation but higher on precipitation total.
See the issue?
3) Although, both of the models agree on the location of the snow.

-Expanding the forecast:
Many agree a heavy snow forecast in South Mississippi is against climatology. History shows highest snow totals should be expected in Central Mississippi and into Northern/Central Alabama.

What are my thoughts?
I am believing our atmospheric sounding will trend barely at and below freezing late Thursday night and throughout the day on Friday. This means the falling precipitation will not be able to melt completely. I expect the precipitation to begin falling late in the evening on Thursday and ending after midday Friday. Accumulation should begin on vegetation near midnight, but any collection on the roadways is difficult to determine. Though...I believe by daybreak Friday morning the ground will be cold enough to begin accumulating on the road.

Snow totals in our viewing area could be widespread. Anywhere from light snow to 5" inches can be expected. At this point, highest totals should be found along and north of highway 98. Pearl River, Stone, and George counties should only see a light snow with mostly rain.

Thoughts on schools?
I realize we normally need an inch or two of snow to cancel schools in this area. So I wouldn't be surprised to see most school systems in our viewing area leaning towards canceling classes on Friday, but our southern counties (Pearl River, Stone, George) school systems should wait until tomorrow to make any thoughts because they should see mostly rain with a light snow mix.

1 comment:

sherri said...

I check the national weather every morning. Imagine my surprise to see your wintry forecast. You should know that you were jinxed by a woman working in the admissions dept. at USM. My daughter is planning a visit to USM soon and told the woman she was looking forward to getting away from the cold. The woman responded that though Hattiesburg gets alot of rain, the temps are usually very nice.
I laughed out loud when I saw your forecast.
Sherri Young
North Pole, Alaska