Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Weather update.

Fog is likely to develop across the area after midnight tonight. Use extra caution when driving and use your low beams. Rain and thunderstorm chances have been increased a tad to a 50% during the day on Saturday. Rex

Nice weather to continue !

Sunny days and mostly clear nights are on tap for the area through Friday. Expect highs today in the upper 70s and lows tonight in the mid 40s. For Thursday and Friday expect highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s. A front will bring a chance for showers and possible thunderstorms on Saturday but the system should clear the area just in time for a very nice Easter Sunday with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 50s. Rex

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Sunny weather to continue !

High pressure will keep us sunny through at least Friday with highs gradually warming to around 80. We have a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night as a weak front moves in but the front should clear out just in time to deliver a very nice Easter Sunday forecast. The forecast for Sunday now looks great with sunny skies and highs around 80 and lows around 50. Enjoy ! Rex

Monday, March 29, 2010

Nice week of weather ahead !

High pressure will continue to control our weather for the next several days. We are anticipating a mostly dry week with highs today in the upper 60s and lows tonight around 40. Sunny skies are forecast Tuesday in to Friday with highs mainly in the 70s until Friday when they may reach the lower 80s. Lows will be in the 40s each night until Thursday night when they are expected to be in the lower 50s. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday as a cool front sweeps through. Easter Sunday looks great with highs in the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies and lows in the lower 50s. Rex

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Slight Chance of Rain Overnight

Today I've been watching a surface low over AR/OK and produce thunderstorms for Arkansas. Luckily we won't find ourselves with thunderstorms with this system. Most of the rain/storms overnight and into Sunday will stay in North Mississippi. Although a thin line will skirt through the northern portion of our viewing area late tonight closer to 6am. Any rain will do receive won't be breaking any rain gauges. Low totals are expected.

The bigger story exist in our long term forecast. The week will be mostly dry with a warming trend. On Monday expect a cool high in the 60's, but on Friday we could easily be near 80. The warmest day of the year so far could come within the first few days of April. Stay tuned...

Friday, March 26, 2010

Nice weekend ahead !

High pressure will build into our area today clearing the skies and keeping our temps in the upper 60s. Mostly clear tonight with lows in the lower 40s. Mostly sunny on Saturday with highs in the lower 70s. We do have a chance for a small shower or two early Sunday, but the system responsble for those will quickly pass resulting in a nice afternoon with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the mid 40s. Expect a string of very nice Spring days Monday through Thursday of next week with highs on Monday in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be in the 70s and lows in the 40s to near 50. Have a great weekend 1 Rex

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Thursday Rain/Storms

As of 10:25pm Wednesday the Storm Prediction Center had part of the Pine Belt under a slight risk of severe weather. Thursday there will be a slight risk for hail, strong winds, and you never can rule out the possibility of a tornado. Our best chance for rain will come between 9am and 5pm Thursday.

-Nick


Dense fog this morning.

Dense fog is in the area this morning but will dissipate around 9:00 am. Expect a very nice day with partly sunny skies and temps in the mid 70s. Clouds will be on the increase tonight with lows in the lowers 50s. There is a 40% chance for showers and possible thunderstorms after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and some of those may be severe. Stay tuned to WDAM-TV and wdam.com for the latest weather information. Rex

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Cold Sunday, Hello Spring!

Two Stories tonight:
A cold front is pushing the the Deep South this evening. Snow is falling in Dallas and a line of rain is impacting Little Rock through Lake Charles.

-Tonight the cold front will continue to push through Louisiana and Mississippi. Rain will be associated with the frontal passage. I expect the storm's strength to be weak with the lack of upper level winds and low cloud height. Current cloud height of storm's over Louisiana are below the height found in normal severe weather scenarios and I don't expect this to change once entering MS. Of course there is still the potential for strong winds within the rain line, but I expect this to stay along the MS coast. I'm thinking potentially the strongest line of heavy rain could be found after midnight. *The rain will slowly move through the Pine Belt, but won't end until early Sunday morning.

-After the rain passes the temperature will remain well below normal. The surface low will become nearly stationary in Northern Mississippi through Sunday and allow a cold pocket of air to take residence in the state. I expect temps to be in the 40's for a majority of the day under cloudy and breezy conditions. I don't expect the afternoon high to be any higher than 50 in the heart of the Pine Belt. (Oh yea, we just officially started Spring today. Hello Spring!)

The cool conditions will remain through Monday, but Tuesday will have a dramatic turn back to climatology. 70's should be back in the forecast after Monday.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Don't drop your guard just yet


Much of today has been gorgeous with temps reaching the upper 70s all around the Pine Belt. However, it appears mother nature still has one more trick up her sleeve before we roll into the weekend.

A series of mid/upper level shortwave troughs trailing a cold front may be enough to trigger some more storms over South Mississippi in the early morning hours Friday. Some of the these storms may be severe in nature with strong winds and large hail, and as always you never can rule out the possibility for some rotation.

This afternoon the Storm Prediction Center placed parts of the Pine Belt under a slight risk for severe weather early Friday morning (Graphic above). The risk stretches from Hattiesburg all the way up to north Mississippi. With the ingredients for elevated convection in place, hail seems to be the most likely of the severe possibilities.

-Nick

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Midday report on Storms

After early morning storms in the Pine Belt the atmosphere is reloading at midday. Temps have already reached a muggy 70 degrees as plenty of moisture is streaming in here. Don't be over anxious because I believe the next round of storms in South Mississippi will develop again late tonight.

A noticeable amount of dry air is a key in today's event. The small popcorn showers happening now are having trouble growing because of the dry layer in the atmosphere. Some people relate this to a "loaded gun" mentality because the instability is present but the atmosphere is waiting to overcome the inversion. Big storms will be allowed to form after the inversion is overcome, but this might not happen until 8pm and/or later.

I've already steadily repeated this morning our total rain situation. Most of the rain in the Deep South will take place in Alabama, but we could still potential record from 0.50" to 1.00" in the Pine Belt. (Birmingham already has over 2" for the day!)

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow

Here is a portion I copied from the latest NWS Storm Prediction Center who has placed us under a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday for the Central Gulf Coast.

...LWR MS RVR VLY/GULF COAST...
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MAXIMUM IN SVR RISKS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LWR MS RVR VLY/GULF COAST. CONVECTION IS APT TO BE OCCURRING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION AS HIGHER
PW AIR MASS GRADUALLY ADVECTS NWD. HEATING/DEGREE OF
SFC-DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS/PCPN.
BUT...INCREASING ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SVR POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTN/EVE
FROM PARTS OF THE UPR TX COAST EWD. AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TSTM CLUSTERS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SVR WEATHER APPEAR TO BE DURING THE LATE
AFTN/OVERNIGHT FROM SRN LA TO PERHAPS THE FAR WRN FL PNHDL.
HERE
...SRN FRINGES OF THE WARM-ADVECTION DERIVED STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC AMIDST RETURN OF HIGHER QUALITY BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Active 2nd Week in March

This week appears to be active...

A strong sub-tropical jet will be in place to deliver good upper level dynamics. This will make a difference in the two shortwave troughs sweeping through the pine belt.

Monday night and Tuesday will involve scattered showers throughout a majority of the state. Most of this will coincide with a slow moving warm front with the center of low pressure circulates into the central plains.

The stronger system will transpire late Tuesday night and into Wednesday. A well stacked low pressure system will cut through the lower mississippi river valley, and the dynamics will be available for potential severe weather. As of now, I believe the main threat will be hail and wind, but National Weather Service in Jackson is already hyping the tornado potential as well. We will keep watching Wednesday to make sure the specific threats.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Where does this winter rank?

The National Weather Service office out of Jackson, MS offered up some temperature and snowfall tables that represent how this winter ranks up when compared to other winters. Unfortunately for the Pine Belt the data just focuses on Jackson and Meridian.... Hattiesburg and Laurel did not have reliable weather stations until about a decade ago. Nevertheless, the Jackson and Meridian data gives us a good measuring stick. Tables below....

*TABLE #1: COLDEST AVERAGE WINTER (DEC/JAN/FEB) TEMPERATURES

JACKSON, MS...(SINCE 1896)

RANK...TEMPERATURE...WINTER SEASON
1..........41.2......1977-1978
2..........41.9......1904-1905
3..........42.7......1963-1964
4..........42.8......2009-2010
4..........42.8......1939-1940
6..........43.0......1976-1977
7..........43.5......1962-1963
8..........43.8......1983-1984
9..........44.2......2000-2001
9..........44.2......1978-1979

==================================

MERIDIAN, MS...(SINCE 1905)

RANK...TEMPERATURE...WINTER SEASON
1..........41.4......1963-1964
2..........41.8......1976-1977
3..........42.1......2009-2010
4..........42.2......1978-1979
4..........42.2......1962-1963
6..........43.4......1939-1940
7..........43.7......1978-1979
8..........43.9......1957-1958
8..........43.9......1935-1936
8..........43.9......1983-1984


*TABLE #2: COLDEST AVERAGE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES

JACKSON, MS...(SINCE 1896)

RANK...TEMPERATURE...YEAR
1..........38.3......1905
2..........39.6......1978
3..........40.2......1968
4..........40.3......1958
5..........40.8......2010

==================================

MERIDIAN, MS...(SINCE 1905)

RANK...TEMPERATURE...YEAR
1..........39.2......1978
2..........39.4......1905
3..........40.6......1958
4..........41.0......2010
5..........42.1......1947


*TABLE #3: HIGHEST WINTER (NOV THRU MARCH) SNOWFALL TOTALS

**ONLY JACKSON SNOWFALL TOTALS INCLUDED HERE BECAUSE OFFICIAL
SNOWFALL OBSERVATIONS ARE NO LONGER BEING PERFORMED AT THE
MERIDIAN OBSERVING SITE

JACKSON, MS...(SINCE 1896)

RANK.....SNOWFALL....WINTER SEASON
1..........11.7......1903-1904
2..........11.6......1939-1940
3..........10.0......1918-1919
4...........9.2......1929-1930
5...........9.1......1959-1960
6...........8.9......1967-1968
7...........6.3......1981-1982
8...........6.0......1975-1976
9...........5.5......2009-2010!
10..........5.2......1947-1948


! NOTE: THE WINTER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR 2009-2010 ARE OBVIOUSLY NOT
YET FINAL. ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR JACKSON PAST THIS CALENDAR DATE
IS VERY RARE...BUT NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.