How wet will we get?

Right now I am taking note of the different models and the potential rain for our region. The latest models runs seem to show some interesting points. Let me break it down for you...

Eta: The majority of the rain on Wednesday will be found NW of us in the Pine Belt Region. Between Wednesday and Thurdsay, South Mississippi seems to only have a light amount of rain.

GFS: South Mississippi holds the majority of the rain from now till Friday morning. Although the total rain amount is less than Eta.

WRF: (12Z; old data) This model also agrees with the most recent run of Eta. The majority of the rain will be found NW of the PIB, but we will still experience a light to moderate amount through Thursday night.

The Eta and GFS obviously have some differences, but the Eta is back to it's normal bias. Eta is usually the model to over-exaggerate the total amount of rain. Although the Eta seems to match up better with the analysis of the current sfc map, and the GFS has been too short on extending the rain in North Mississippi today.

My thoughts:
Rain is in the forecast, but I can't go as high of a percentage as NWS at 100% tomorrow (wednesday). I think we will see rain, but only on the light end (less than 0.25"). I also think the rain will be a little more scattered than most people are expecting.
But you must know some of us might have the opportunity to see more than 0.25" in a moderate event.

Feel free to keep track of the rain on Wednesday and Thursday from our Interactive Radar on the Weather Page drop down menu. It is an excellent resource during rain events.

tcade@wdam.com

Here comes the moisture

Well my main story will be focused on boundaries and moisture. By 0Z Wednesday ( Tuesday afternoon) I expect to see an increase in moisture. This increase in moisture will put us in the middle of warm front, but we could see a shot at some isolated thunderstorms with most of seeing a healthy cloud deck. The biggest question in my forecast is the timing and location of the rain. Mississippi will see rain this week, but when and where will we see the rain?

Tuesday night could see a boundary cut through our viewing area from the NW and progressing in the east and southeastern regions. Wednesday will also see a similar pattern during the day, but Thursday ( 5 days out) seems like a more challenging forecast. I'm focused mainly on the Tuesday/Wednesday event this evening. Thursday will have the chance to package in some more rain as a major trough builds in the center of the country.

Total Rain:
Overall you might catch yourself in a localized heavy rainfall, but the majority of the pine belt region I wouldn't expect a large amount of rain. On my scale, I am going with the pine belt receiving a light amount of rain with only a few areas seeing a moderate amount.

After Thursday:
Friday we shoud see conditions clearing as the day progresses. Friday night and the weekend should be a cool couple of days and nights. I'm barely putting a high temperature in the 60s with 61,60, respectively for the weekend. My reason, I expect 850 temps to be below freezing by mid-day Saturday.

Severe?

Tornado Watch box and a few Tornado Warnings have been issued in the Central Plains, but i am mainly interested in the the front which is creating all of the activity in the plain states today. This front has really churned into something worth noting. I believe the 996mb Low sitting over Eastern South Dakota holds one of the lowest pressure levels we have seen across the nation in the last few weeks. This Low system will be moving slowly Northeasterward in the next 2 days, which will put us on the southern end of the front.

Instability/Moisture/Lift:

Instability will be light in South Mississippi by the time the front moves into our region. WRF and SREF models show me a lack in CAPE and Shear by late Thursday night and into Friday morning. The moisture will be around as tomorrow we expect to see dewpoints in the upper 50s and maybe around the 60 degree mark.
As the majority of the mechanisms will be light in our area, my forecast for rain is on the lighter end, but I wouldn't be surprised to see our Western Counties of Jeff'Davis, Smith, Simpson, and even Covington, catching a moderate amount of rain between 0.25" and 1.00". As the front moves eastward across the PIB, I expect the rain totals to decrease. This will be partially due to the lack of instability in the overnight hours.

Right now SPC only shows a slight risk for portions of West MS and a majority of LA. I don't expect anything severe for our area, but the possibility is always in the front of our minds here in the weather center.

Thanks for reading with us today!

tcade@wdam.com

Tanner Cade Hour

And on this Election Day I hope you were able to get out and voice your opinion through voting.

A couple of things...

"The Tanner Cade Hour minus 55 minutes or so" is a new show I am producing for our website. This show will be updated every Wednesday afternoon. Please feel free to take a few minutes at your desk Wednesday afternoon to watch the new show!

Feel free to email me your weather questions at tcade@wdam.com

Thanks for keeping up with us here on the blog and here at wdam.com

Quiet till Thursday

1036mb High has taken control of our weather scene.

Our forecast exist without a major change until Thursday. Monday to Wednesday will package a slow increase in temperature and moisture. The GFS shows me a 12C 850mb temperature for Wednesday, which is the warmest 850 temp we have seen within the last 7 days.

Tuesday and Wednesday I see us reaching temps a few degrees above normal into the upper 70s, but a moderate cold front will move in late Thursday to change our weather scene. Models have slowed down a bit on the advancement of this cold front on Thursday, but I am still expecting the rain chances to be Thursday PM to a Friday AM event. Although Thursday's high temperature is tricky to forecast right now with the low confidence on when the pre-frontal clouds will move into our region. I'm expecting us to reach a temp in the mid-70s, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this number change a tad between now and then.

Friday's temps are on the low confidence side without a strong model agreement. European shows me 850mb temps at 6C but GFS (which is generally a little too cold) shows me 850 temps at the freezing mark.

Rain chance:
Most of the models show the trough moving more NE by Thursday, which will take some of the vorticity and energy North of us. But the 5 day Severe Outlook has the Lower MS River Valley in the window for a little activity (mainly thunderstorms). CAPE and Shear are all very low at this point so I don't expect a severe event. The main rain will end up be more on the light end of the scale with some people catching some moderate amounts of rain.

In the end, another beautiful weekend ahead.

Very Pleasant..Very Nice

If you are looking for a long and deep weather discussion then you better go look at some station's websites in the Northwest US. Our weather story these next handful of days seems very pleasant and very nice. Our friend, "high pressure system," will sit down to our NE over the next few days and really clear our skies out, which will give us a light breeze from the East. Although Sunday night we will see our dewpoint temps increase a tad which will allow our overnight temps to increase as well.

Our next big weather changer looks to be developing in the NW over the weekend. By Monday/Tuesday a well definied trough will be digging across the Rockies, and our impact from this trough should be around Thursday and little into Friday. We are still pretty far out to talk seriously on the timing of this trough, and even the depth of the trough into our region seems very early to nail down anything solid. A few models have shown me only a light shower event, but I must still be aware of the possibility for more of a moderate rainfall event. The one thing we must remember as we enter into the "cool months" is the amount of energy we need for uplift (rain) events. We experience more stable atmospheres in the winter months so we need more vertical uplift and vorticity to to spur on credible rain forecast. All this can be compared to the summer, when our incredible unstable atmosphere only needs a little vorticity and UVVs to create a rain event.

Enjoy your weekend! Be sure to enjoy the beautiful clear nights!

tcade@wdam.com

A Lesson in Radiational Cooling

Well of course these nights are cold! Why are we experiencing these cold temperatures?

The weather scene is perfect for what we call radiational cooling, but let me first explain what hinders radiational cooling. During the day the ground heats up from absorbing the shortwave radiation from the sun, but the ground doesn't gain any energy once the sun sets. At night the ground emits longwave radiation (energy), but clouds aid in keeping the heat (energy) in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This event will allow the night-time temperature to level-off as oppossed to decreasing dramatically. Now our forecast tonight doesn't involve clouds so nothing will hold back the energy removed from the ground. The clear skies will allow the energy to lost from the low levels of the atmosphere.

Also, high winds will cause the lower level temperature to remain in the lower level. Think of this as a big mixing bowl. The ground's temperature won't be able to leave the lower levels as effieciently as calm winds. Calm winds act as a quick escape for the ground's energy. Our forecast tonight include calm winds.

So tonight will be cold. Break out the winter quilts and turn on the heater because tonight we will experience textbook longwave radiational cooling.

****Also, tomorrow premiers the 1st episode of "The Tanner Cade Hour minus 55 minutes or so" on www.wdam.com. This is my show for a once-a-week episodes (web only).

tcade@wdam.com