The main focus on my forecast today is looking forward to the rain event Thursday night and Friday, but a certain computer forecast model caught my attention this morning. The raw GFS model showed me snow flurries and freezing rain for Sunday night. Now don't jump out of your seat.
Let me tell you the GFS has propragated the cold canadian air farther south than the "ole faithful" European model. This is normal for the GFS to bring cold air too far south so I don't expect anything worthy of discussing, but the upper level air will definitely be cooling down to -4C.
Anyway,
I expect the rain to impact our region starting Thursday evening and ending Friday night. Some showers might linger around Saturday morning, but the majority of the rain seems to be a Friday event. Amounts should only total less than 0.25".
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Monday, November 17, 2008
Cool Start but Beautiful Day
Well we have seen an incredibly clear morning with well below average temperatures. In hattiesburg, the average for this time of year is 70/45, but this morning we reached a low of 29 in Eastabuchie. Today we will experience a small increase in moisture, which will allow our afternoon temps to reach the mid-60s. A cold front will also be quietly moving southward throughout the magnolia state throughout the day, but our conditions will remain beautiful. Tuesday will hold the main effects of the Cold front as our high temp will barely touch the upper 50s.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
How wet will we get?
Right now I am taking note of the different models and the potential rain for our region. The latest models runs seem to show some interesting points. Let me break it down for you...
Eta: The majority of the rain on Wednesday will be found NW of us in the Pine Belt Region. Between Wednesday and Thurdsay, South Mississippi seems to only have a light amount of rain.
GFS: South Mississippi holds the majority of the rain from now till Friday morning. Although the total rain amount is less than Eta.
WRF: (12Z; old data) This model also agrees with the most recent run of Eta. The majority of the rain will be found NW of the PIB, but we will still experience a light to moderate amount through Thursday night.
The Eta and GFS obviously have some differences, but the Eta is back to it's normal bias. Eta is usually the model to over-exaggerate the total amount of rain. Although the Eta seems to match up better with the analysis of the current sfc map, and the GFS has been too short on extending the rain in North Mississippi today.
My thoughts:
Rain is in the forecast, but I can't go as high of a percentage as NWS at 100% tomorrow (wednesday). I think we will see rain, but only on the light end (less than 0.25"). I also think the rain will be a little more scattered than most people are expecting.
But you must know some of us might have the opportunity to see more than 0.25" in a moderate event.
Feel free to keep track of the rain on Wednesday and Thursday from our Interactive Radar on the Weather Page drop down menu. It is an excellent resource during rain events.
tcade@wdam.com
Eta: The majority of the rain on Wednesday will be found NW of us in the Pine Belt Region. Between Wednesday and Thurdsay, South Mississippi seems to only have a light amount of rain.
GFS: South Mississippi holds the majority of the rain from now till Friday morning. Although the total rain amount is less than Eta.
WRF: (12Z; old data) This model also agrees with the most recent run of Eta. The majority of the rain will be found NW of the PIB, but we will still experience a light to moderate amount through Thursday night.
The Eta and GFS obviously have some differences, but the Eta is back to it's normal bias. Eta is usually the model to over-exaggerate the total amount of rain. Although the Eta seems to match up better with the analysis of the current sfc map, and the GFS has been too short on extending the rain in North Mississippi today.
My thoughts:
Rain is in the forecast, but I can't go as high of a percentage as NWS at 100% tomorrow (wednesday). I think we will see rain, but only on the light end (less than 0.25"). I also think the rain will be a little more scattered than most people are expecting.
But you must know some of us might have the opportunity to see more than 0.25" in a moderate event.
Feel free to keep track of the rain on Wednesday and Thursday from our Interactive Radar on the Weather Page drop down menu. It is an excellent resource during rain events.
tcade@wdam.com
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Here comes the moisture
Well my main story will be focused on boundaries and moisture. By 0Z Wednesday ( Tuesday afternoon) I expect to see an increase in moisture. This increase in moisture will put us in the middle of warm front, but we could see a shot at some isolated thunderstorms with most of seeing a healthy cloud deck. The biggest question in my forecast is the timing and location of the rain. Mississippi will see rain this week, but when and where will we see the rain?
Tuesday night could see a boundary cut through our viewing area from the NW and progressing in the east and southeastern regions. Wednesday will also see a similar pattern during the day, but Thursday ( 5 days out) seems like a more challenging forecast. I'm focused mainly on the Tuesday/Wednesday event this evening. Thursday will have the chance to package in some more rain as a major trough builds in the center of the country.
Total Rain:
Overall you might catch yourself in a localized heavy rainfall, but the majority of the pine belt region I wouldn't expect a large amount of rain. On my scale, I am going with the pine belt receiving a light amount of rain with only a few areas seeing a moderate amount.
After Thursday:
Friday we shoud see conditions clearing as the day progresses. Friday night and the weekend should be a cool couple of days and nights. I'm barely putting a high temperature in the 60s with 61,60, respectively for the weekend. My reason, I expect 850 temps to be below freezing by mid-day Saturday.
Tuesday night could see a boundary cut through our viewing area from the NW and progressing in the east and southeastern regions. Wednesday will also see a similar pattern during the day, but Thursday ( 5 days out) seems like a more challenging forecast. I'm focused mainly on the Tuesday/Wednesday event this evening. Thursday will have the chance to package in some more rain as a major trough builds in the center of the country.
Total Rain:
Overall you might catch yourself in a localized heavy rainfall, but the majority of the pine belt region I wouldn't expect a large amount of rain. On my scale, I am going with the pine belt receiving a light amount of rain with only a few areas seeing a moderate amount.
After Thursday:
Friday we shoud see conditions clearing as the day progresses. Friday night and the weekend should be a cool couple of days and nights. I'm barely putting a high temperature in the 60s with 61,60, respectively for the weekend. My reason, I expect 850 temps to be below freezing by mid-day Saturday.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Severe?
Tornado Watch box and a few Tornado Warnings have been issued in the Central Plains, but i am mainly interested in the the front which is creating all of the activity in the plain states today. This front has really churned into something worth noting. I believe the 996mb Low sitting over Eastern South Dakota holds one of the lowest pressure levels we have seen across the nation in the last few weeks. This Low system will be moving slowly Northeasterward in the next 2 days, which will put us on the southern end of the front.
Instability/Moisture/Lift:
Instability will be light in South Mississippi by the time the front moves into our region. WRF and SREF models show me a lack in CAPE and Shear by late Thursday night and into Friday morning. The moisture will be around as tomorrow we expect to see dewpoints in the upper 50s and maybe around the 60 degree mark.
As the majority of the mechanisms will be light in our area, my forecast for rain is on the lighter end, but I wouldn't be surprised to see our Western Counties of Jeff'Davis, Smith, Simpson, and even Covington, catching a moderate amount of rain between 0.25" and 1.00". As the front moves eastward across the PIB, I expect the rain totals to decrease. This will be partially due to the lack of instability in the overnight hours.
Right now SPC only shows a slight risk for portions of West MS and a majority of LA. I don't expect anything severe for our area, but the possibility is always in the front of our minds here in the weather center.
Thanks for reading with us today!
tcade@wdam.com
Instability/Moisture/Lift:
Instability will be light in South Mississippi by the time the front moves into our region. WRF and SREF models show me a lack in CAPE and Shear by late Thursday night and into Friday morning. The moisture will be around as tomorrow we expect to see dewpoints in the upper 50s and maybe around the 60 degree mark.
As the majority of the mechanisms will be light in our area, my forecast for rain is on the lighter end, but I wouldn't be surprised to see our Western Counties of Jeff'Davis, Smith, Simpson, and even Covington, catching a moderate amount of rain between 0.25" and 1.00". As the front moves eastward across the PIB, I expect the rain totals to decrease. This will be partially due to the lack of instability in the overnight hours.
Right now SPC only shows a slight risk for portions of West MS and a majority of LA. I don't expect anything severe for our area, but the possibility is always in the front of our minds here in the weather center.
Thanks for reading with us today!
tcade@wdam.com
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Tanner Cade Hour
And on this Election Day I hope you were able to get out and voice your opinion through voting.
A couple of things...
"The Tanner Cade Hour minus 55 minutes or so" is a new show I am producing for our website. This show will be updated every Wednesday afternoon. Please feel free to take a few minutes at your desk Wednesday afternoon to watch the new show!
Feel free to email me your weather questions at tcade@wdam.com
Thanks for keeping up with us here on the blog and here at wdam.com
A couple of things...
"The Tanner Cade Hour minus 55 minutes or so" is a new show I am producing for our website. This show will be updated every Wednesday afternoon. Please feel free to take a few minutes at your desk Wednesday afternoon to watch the new show!
Feel free to email me your weather questions at tcade@wdam.com
Thanks for keeping up with us here on the blog and here at wdam.com
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Quiet till Thursday
1036mb High has taken control of our weather scene.
Our forecast exist without a major change until Thursday. Monday to Wednesday will package a slow increase in temperature and moisture. The GFS shows me a 12C 850mb temperature for Wednesday, which is the warmest 850 temp we have seen within the last 7 days.
Tuesday and Wednesday I see us reaching temps a few degrees above normal into the upper 70s, but a moderate cold front will move in late Thursday to change our weather scene. Models have slowed down a bit on the advancement of this cold front on Thursday, but I am still expecting the rain chances to be Thursday PM to a Friday AM event. Although Thursday's high temperature is tricky to forecast right now with the low confidence on when the pre-frontal clouds will move into our region. I'm expecting us to reach a temp in the mid-70s, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this number change a tad between now and then.
Friday's temps are on the low confidence side without a strong model agreement. European shows me 850mb temps at 6C but GFS (which is generally a little too cold) shows me 850 temps at the freezing mark.
Rain chance:
Most of the models show the trough moving more NE by Thursday, which will take some of the vorticity and energy North of us. But the 5 day Severe Outlook has the Lower MS River Valley in the window for a little activity (mainly thunderstorms). CAPE and Shear are all very low at this point so I don't expect a severe event. The main rain will end up be more on the light end of the scale with some people catching some moderate amounts of rain.
In the end, another beautiful weekend ahead.
Our forecast exist without a major change until Thursday. Monday to Wednesday will package a slow increase in temperature and moisture. The GFS shows me a 12C 850mb temperature for Wednesday, which is the warmest 850 temp we have seen within the last 7 days.
Tuesday and Wednesday I see us reaching temps a few degrees above normal into the upper 70s, but a moderate cold front will move in late Thursday to change our weather scene. Models have slowed down a bit on the advancement of this cold front on Thursday, but I am still expecting the rain chances to be Thursday PM to a Friday AM event. Although Thursday's high temperature is tricky to forecast right now with the low confidence on when the pre-frontal clouds will move into our region. I'm expecting us to reach a temp in the mid-70s, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this number change a tad between now and then.
Friday's temps are on the low confidence side without a strong model agreement. European shows me 850mb temps at 6C but GFS (which is generally a little too cold) shows me 850 temps at the freezing mark.
Rain chance:
Most of the models show the trough moving more NE by Thursday, which will take some of the vorticity and energy North of us. But the 5 day Severe Outlook has the Lower MS River Valley in the window for a little activity (mainly thunderstorms). CAPE and Shear are all very low at this point so I don't expect a severe event. The main rain will end up be more on the light end of the scale with some people catching some moderate amounts of rain.
In the end, another beautiful weekend ahead.
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