Frozen precip for the Pine Belt?

It still looks like we may see some type of frozen precip here in the Pine Belt Wednesday night thru Thursday. If things work come together it could be snow or a mixture light rain and snow!

The "S" word.....S*#W?!

There is a lot of buzz about snow in the Pine Belt. Two models (GFS and ECMWF) suggest snow is coming to South Mississippi Wednesday night and Thursday. However, models have been all over the place within the past 36 hours. It appears that an area of low pressure that's needed for snow will be in place. That low may result in dynamic cooling. (quick vertical cooling in the atmosphere caused by a drop in pressure.) However... how much dynamic cooling will take place? That is the billion dollar question.

But here is the catch, if we see snow in Mississippi, it will not be a widespread blanket of snow. It would more likely be a line of snow. In other words, it may snow in Jackson and Meridian, but not Hattiesburg and Laurel. Or the other way around? To predict an exact location at this point is nearly impossible. The slightest change in data could throw everything off.

So keep watching, or reading, and know that S*#W is a possibility. I'll reexamine the issue Tuesday evening.
-Nick Ortego

Moderate Risk

This morning the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, issued a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather for Northern LA and Central/Southern MS.  This area includes Areas west of I-59, but this is still a concern to areas east of I-59.  A Moderate Risk from the SPC means there is a 15% chance of a tornado occurring within a 25 mile radius of any point within the Risk Area.  A moderate risk is not issued very often so please stay tuned to our updates for more information.  My thoughts agree with this forecast from SPC, but we won't start experiencing severe weather until this afternoon and into this evening.  I expect the main cold front and squall line to move through around midnight tonight, but my greatest concern is what could happen before the front moves through.  As we will have a moderate to large amount of instability and dynamics for severe thunderstorms to develop south of I-20.  If you walk outside, you know there is more moisture in the air, which isn't normal, and this moisture will be a prime variable in creating thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening.  Please stay tuned to this blog throughout the afternoon and evening.  We will go on-air this afternoon/evening/night if our viewing audience is at risk of severe weather.  tcade@wdam.com

Severe Tuesday Night?

It has been months since the Pine Belt has been placed under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center, (spc.noaa.gov) but this Tuesday we will need to have our guard up. With growing instability in the atmosphere and an approaching cold front, the Pine Belt may potentially see strong winds, thunderstorms, and a chance for tornadoes.

Our in house model suggest that the squall line will pass over the Pine Belt between 10:00pm Tuesday and 3:00am Wednesday. However, it is very possible that we may see some super cells develop in front of the squall line earlier Tuesday.

We are monitoring the situation in the 7 on Your Side Weather Center, stay tuned for more information.
-Nick Ortego

Live Weather Chat

Tonight at 7pm we will have a Live Weather Chat on wdam.com.  Our main discussion will be concerning our forecast for tomorrow night as the Storm Prediction Center has the Pine Belt under a slight risk of severe weather.  As time allows, Nick Ortego and Tanner Cade will also be taking any other weather questions you might have.  

Big 24 Hour Change

Ok take yesterday and today, now bottle up both days and set it on the shelf because we won't be seeing the weekends weather for a few days. The next 24 hours is a major transition day for us in the weather world. Expect winds to slowly shift more to the SE as a High pressure system shifts east of our region. Winds alone can be a big story line because with a shift in the wind we will also begin to see a pull of more moisture from the Western side of the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoint temps are in the 20s now but I'll expect Dewpoint temps to be in the lower 50s by Tuesday morning. As I wrote about yesterday, because of the major influx of moisture, instability, and shear (upper level change of winds), the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for the Lower Mississippi River Valley (which includes the Pine Belt). Day 3 refers to Tuesday with Sunday being Day 1. I have also noticed the models have slowed down the frontal movement, but the back end of the front has exited quicker. In other words, I'll be looking for our main rain event coming into play Tuesday PM and into Wednesday AM, but our precip should clear out by Wednesday PM. Tuesday's impact looks like a squall line event, which we could see pass through between 6pm Tues and 6am Wed., and my main concern is wind and heavy rain (flash flooding). Of course with other variables factored in the slight chance of a tornado is in my thoughts. As this is the first severe weather threat for the season, I hope you will stay up-to-date with this blog and our live weathercast . Thank you for reading! -tcade@wdam.com

Rain is coming

First of all, today has been a beautiful day! Temps have been on the cool side, but the sunshine definitely made this a wonderful day. This sunny weekend has packaged in cool and dry weather, but I must continue to look at our forecast for next week. A strong front will be digging it's way into our neck of the woods by Tuesday morning. I expect this frontal system to usher in plenty of moisture, shear, and lift to produce rain/thunderstorms. I'm a little surprised SPC (Storm Prediction Center) doesn't have any discussion about the chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The huge amount of moisture and strong upper-level jet is very hard to overlook in our forecast, but I also realize we are still 4 days out from this event. I'll wait for tomorrow for SPC to atleast have a small write-up about our area for Day 3 outlook. Overall, my main forecast is heavy rain with the threat for high winds and hail. Although so many things could change between now and Tuesday, but I am confident to expect rain on Tuesday. So much is happening next week in the weather world so please stay tuned to our live weathercast and this blog for updated details in our forecast. Thanks for reading! tcade@wdam.com