Fred not a threat !

Tropical Storm Fred is in the far Atlantic off the African coast and is forecast to begin a northward track that will keep it far away from the U.S. Our weather for the next few days is forecast to be warm with only slim chances for a shower. As we head towards the weekend, however, rain chances are expected to increase. Highs for the next few days will range from the upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the 60s. Patchy fog is also possible again Wednesday morning !Rex

Labor Day showers !

Showers and a possible isolated thunderstorm will likely form over some portions of the Pine Belt this afternoon. Any showers that do form will dissipate when the sun sets and that will give way to mostly clear skies tonight. A tropical wave near the African coast will likely become Fred sometime this week but it appears that a trough will take the storm out into the open Atlantic and not pose a threat to the U.S.-but it never hurts to keep an eye on those storms until we know for sure that they have recurved ! Have a safe and happy Labor Day 1 Rex

Widespread rain totals and Discussion

Showers across the region today delivered over an inch for some portions of Hattiesburg and Columbia while other areas only had a trace (0.19" for us at WDAM-TV). The rain and clouds also quickly dropped the temperature to a comfortable lower 70's, and I'm sure many people enjoyed a day without temps in the upper 80's.

The humidity will continue to be around through the week. A cut-off low will rotate throught the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday then we will still encounter good upper level lift in producing scattered thunderstorms. The heating of the day will destabilize the atmosphere and aid in pop-up showers in the afternoon.

Although Monday and Tuesday forecast seem rather slim on the rain chances. Expect today's rain showers to be the most abundant for the next couple of days, but another similar wet trend could be next weekend as well.

Wet labor Day weekend ?

Rain chances are pretty slim for today and tonight-about 20%-but the chances increase a bit for Saturday afternoon-around 50%. Will the game at U.S.M. escape ? Probably for the most part since the game starts at 6:00 PM hopefully most of the showers will have ended. For Sunday and Labor Day it looks kinda wet at this time with 60% chances for both days. Highs will be in the 80s for the next few days with lows in the 60s to near 70. Rex

Not much rain expected today !

Not much if any rain is expected this afternoon. We should top out in the upper 80s. Partly cloudy and mild tonight with lows in the mid 60s. A slightly better chance for a shower on Friday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Looking ahead to next week-a very strong cold front may sweep through on Friday! I will keep you posted ! Rex

The name is Erika

Clouds have built quickly into the area today from the East. We normally don't have an easterly flow at this time of the year, but an inverted trough helps transfer today's activity. Moisture will continue to increase in the midlevels throughout the day, but I don't expect any shower activity.

Watching the tropics:
Tropical Storm Erika is holding onto to Tropical Storm status with a weakening trend. Erika doesn't have much movement with upper levels winds calm at this time. So the forecast doesn't move the storm very far Northwest in the next 5 days. Model forecast track and intensity are very diverse at this point. A strong models consensus is yet to be seen, and GFS has the system maintain a weak intensity but entering the Gulf in a week. Canadian turns Erika North at the Bahamas to impact the East coast. NoGaps pulls the system more to the East...similar to Bill. And our trusty European model takes Erika along the east coast.

The intensity models also range greatly on Erika. As seen by the image...
So much is to say about this storm in the next few days. We'll have to wait on the intensity. NHC keeps it a Tropical Storm Through 5 days out.

My thoughts on Erika:
As of today, I think the weak Ridge will remain in place to cause Erika to move more westerly, but I feel like it's still an east coast storm. Erika's intensity and makeup will waiver a good bit in the next few days with disrupting shear and dry air inhibiting growth. But much is yet to be determined.

Enjoy the day!

Goodbye August...poetic vibe

As of now, Invest 94 looks very symmetric and has good banding on satellite imagery. This afternoon I wouldn't be surprised to see A tropical depression out of this storm, but the future life of this storm is still uncertain.

Otherwise, the meteoroligical fall starts today with an easy/breezy greeting. Low moisture and a dry breeze from the North makes for beautiful weather conditions.

As we close the book on a below normal August, it's time to pull some notes about the month in review. The average temperature was slightly below normal, and the total rain data was down nearly 2 inches. Highest temperature of 96 was found on the 7th and 14th, and the lowest temperature of 58 recorded on the 24th. Highest peak wind of 53 mph was recorded on August 4th. *All of these numbers come from Bobby L. Chain airport.

Now as we jump into September, I think there is no better way than stating what Chicago Area Forecaster wrote in a very poetic way in a discussion early today....

...ODE TO SUMMER 2009...

YOU ARRIVED QUITE LATE
YOUR WARMTH NEVER GREAT
OFTEN DREARY AND GRAY
RAIN...FILLED MANY A DAY

NOW ITS TIME YOU DEPART
LEAVING US HOW YOU START
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY LOW
YET SUNSHINE ALL AGLOW

SOME RECORDS DID FALL
AS RAIN PILED UP TALL
THE THIRD COLDEST ON RECORD
NOW ON THE BOOKS IN ROCKFORD

THOUGH AUGUST 19TH CAME IN
WITH STORMS THAT HAD SOME SPIN
YOUR UNUSUAL AUTUMN-LIKE CHILL
KEPT SOME LONGING FOR THUNDERY FRILL

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS YOUR FATE
AND NOW FOR WINTERS EL NINO WE WAIT
A PARTING GIFT BEFORE YOU GO
YET ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW