Cool Temperatures

Here at the station we experienced a low temperature of 53!
We haven't seen temperatures this low since May 17th, but I know we can all handle the cool mornings as we finish the first week of Fall.

One reason we are experiencing the cool low temperatures is due to the Low pressure system over the Carolinas. This Low is swinging NE'sterly wind down the App. Mountain Range, which really dries out our air. The dry air and clear skies allow plenty of longwave radiation, which can remove plenty of energy from the surface.

We could see Dewpoint Temps in the upper 40s, which is certainly a major change from our normal in the 60s.

Enjoy the nice weather!

tcade@wdam.com

Forecast = Sunshine

After a long and rainy day yesterday, we have plenty of sunshine in our forecast. Sunday evening there at still some showers lingering along the MS coast line, but the whole Pine Belt region is watching a beautiful sunset. Only a few very scattered clouds claim residency in the sky above, but these clouds will soon be on their way out. A major trough is moving across the NW U.S. and a major High pressure is building in the NE U.S. The trough will not influence our forecast, yet the High in the NE is expected become strong. Both the NAM and GFS models show a 1034mb High by Tuesday morning, which is about 21mb higher than the normal pressure value of 1013mb. Remember, a high pressure system relates to clear and sunny weather. We will see this High influencing our weather through atleast the midweek point. On Friday we might start to see clouds forming across our area from the East.

This high located to our NE will allow us to have mainly an east wind, but not until Thursday night could we see our driest conditions. Even though we will have clear skies, which helps remove longwave radiation (solar radiation) from the ground, we will still have dewpoint temps in the lower 60s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will help keep our Low around 63 Monday night, but by Thursday Dewpoint temps could easily be in the 50s. Ironically, as soon as we see our driest conditions we could start to see more moisture from the baroclinic low forming over the carolinas. This low can do several things, but the GFS shows us a westward movement over AL/GA by Friday. This low will be a challenge because I will also be studying the relation of a new tropical wave (possible Tropical Storm Kyle) by late this week. This tropical wave is expected to move North from it's current position over Puerto Rico.

We will talk more about the late week forecast tomorrow and Tuesday.

Enjoy Monday!

tcade@wdam.com

A weekend rain forecast

We don't have tropical activity but this is definitely a challenging forecast. Many times scattered showers are the most difficult to forecast because it is hard to determine the timing and location of the rain. Here in the Pine Belt we find ourselves in the midst of a huge atmosphere with an infinite amount of particles, and now forecasteres attempt to make a forecast for your city and your neighborhood. Many days I am amazed how our technology can allow us to forecast a few days in advance with improving data and research.

In this forecast it would be a foolish thing to say it will rain at your football stadium tonight. Although I can tell you there is a 50% chance someone in the Pine Belt will see rain this afternoon and night. Moisture is a major part of my decision in our forecast. This morning will still have a lot of dry air in the mid-levels, which will actually evaporate any moisture before touching the ground. This dry air is also inhibiting the creation of more showers across our region. I actually watched a "dryish" line run into a "moist-ish" line this morning, which allowed light showers to build into Jefferson Davis County and Covington County (for a lack of better words). Now the small line has formed a little more southerly into Louisiana.

I do expect some moisture from our SW and the Gulf to filter into our region throughout the day today. In fact, most of the day we will be under the reign of a cloud deck. This will also keep our temps down to below the 80 degree mark, but some of us in the southern counties might spot 80 or 81. The majority of us will be below 80. The cool temps will also continue into the weekend with cloud cover and capping a high temperature below average. Upper 70s is my forecast through Sunday, but Sunday's high could change a little as we see what is going to playout tonight and Saturday. MOS and many models aren't agreeing on their precip forecast, but models are agreeing on the Low Level Jet entering our region.

A shortwave will be sticking around us for the weekend, but the first day of Fall will bring us the entrance of another High pressure system. I expect clearer skies to start off the first full week of Fall.

Have a good Friday!

tcade@wdam.com

A Glimpse of Fall...

Here at our station the temperature is already 67°! We are well on our way to a really cool night.

Late today we finally experienced the effects of the cool and dry air mass behind the front. I know many parents and fans are having a great time watching football games throughout our region tonight. During my dinner break I was able to see the local football field in Petal turning the lights on for a game under the lights. Of course, these next few nights are a great time to enjoy outdoor activities with friends and family. For our weather, this is a great pattern change after multiple tropical events.
Most models have us controlled by a high pressure system through Wednesday. By Thursday, the High begins to move out of reach as we might begin to see a chance of showers throughout the weekend.
I am expecting many of us to see a low temperature in the 50s at some point during this week. Although our southern counties might struggle to drop below the 60 degree mark.

During this time of beautiful weather please feel free to email me your pictures, thoughts, and questions. If qualified, I know I will show the best "beautiful weather" picture on-air by this weekend. I will be out of the office through Wednesday, but I will definitely be checking my email. As for now, I will see you bright and early Thursday and Friday while I fill-in for Mr. Rex Thompson.

Take Care!

tcade@wdam.com

A rainy night...

Well, how about a nice rain shower for the Pine Belt on this Sunday evening? A rain-only event rolled through our region tonight, and most of the rain totals weren't as high as expected. The whole line of rain actually lost intensity as it moved through Jefferson Davis County and Marion County. The rain totals reflect this...

Pike County McComb: 1.30"
Jackson, MS: 0.58"
Bobby Chain Airport: 0.24"
Meridian-Key Field: 0.49"
*PIB: N/A
**WDAM-TV: 0.01"

The Pine Belt Regional Airport wasn't reporting any rain, and I think our rain gauge here at the station needs to be checked. I know we received more than 0.01" here.

Now the scenario outside reflects a warm, cloudy, fall night. The cold front is laced across the Pine Belt region right now, but things will slowly change as we move throughout the day tomorrow. But some models are still holding onto some light showers tomorrow afternoon. With precip, the raw NAM has shown me great production with this event, and the same model also shows no rain for Monday. So I really want to lean to a lack of rain for tomorrow, and the abundance of clouds for most of the day will maintain stability. I am not expecting a lot of sunshine tomorrow, but I might look for some showers if we receive some sun rays through the exiting Stratus cloud deck.

My question for you...When will these lovebugs leave? I must apologize because I have never experienced these bugs in such abundance. My car isn't a fan of these guys.

I am hoping to see a few bugs leave town when our winds shift in a post-frontal event.

tcade@wdam.com

9/14 Front pushing through

I am currently watching a front move through our region. My Grubbs Ford Alfaskycam in Columbia, MS, already indicated a NW turn in the winds, but the data is still waving between West to North. You can see all of the current camera views on our weather page (http://www.wdam.com/Global/category.asp?C=8388&nav=menu123_2) John E Lewis Field has already experienced 1.07" in about a 2 hour window as the line of storms has pushed through McComb, MS, in Pike County.
After looking at the radar loop, I am watching the line of showers break down a tad. In fact, the system is sitting down a bit. I mean the whole line is starting to become less intense but broadening. Although...I do expect most of the precip to be out of the Pine Belt between 10p-Midnight.

I'll come back with another update later....

9/13 Forecast Thoughts...

The big story for us in the Pine Belt is the approaching front on Sunday, and Ike is becoming extratropical by losing tropical characteristics and still maintaining strong winds. Both the front and the remanents of Ike will join together to form a very long line of showers. One interesting forecasting note...Usually the Eta model over forecast total rain, but the Eta is rather dry for Sunday night. Now the GFS has turned a model run into a very wet event for Sunday night. The GFS is 2.16" compared to Eta's 0.15". The European is along the same lines with the GFS, but the WRF seems to cut both models down the middle at around an inch.

I'm tempted to raise my POPs (probability of precipitation) for Sunday, but I am feeling rather comfortable with 40%. My concern for avoiding a high probability is related to the warm and drier air aloft. This air has helped us see less convection across the region today and I believe we will still have some leftover pieces tomorrow night.

My big weather story starts on Tuesday. Everyone and anything is agreeing on dry air and North wind starting on Monday afternoon/night. After the front moves through our region Monday morning we will quickly begin to feel the wind shift to the North. This North wind will remove us from the moist influence of the Gulf and open our airways to dry continental air. I expect this pattern to last throughout the remainder of the week. For me, this is a difficult choice to keep this pattern through the week, but I feel this is the pattern we must be experiencing as we roll into the transition from Summer to Fall. I am not saying we won't see another warm spell again, but I do believe we will maintain our below average temperatures for the next few weeks. (At least it is definitely a possibility)

Thanks to all of you! I hope you have a great weekend! Please feel free to email...

tcade@wdam.com