Here is a little bit on tomorrow's system...
A gulf low will be moving to our southeast providing a noticeable amount of precipitation. I'm thinking we could easily receive near an inch within the whole system.
Tomorrow will start partly to mostly cloudy and progressing into overcast conditions by midday. Showers will likely start in the afternoon, but the heavier rain will come later in the evening. Instability looks to be low so I wouldn't expect to see any severe weather.
Between 3am and 6am Tuesday we have the potential to see flurries, but not accumulation is expected. Any frozen precipitation should melt significantly in the lower 1,000ft of the atmosphere. The bigger story with this system will be the rain on Monday evening and the cooler temperatures.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
Beginning of March
Our temperature has averaged below normal for the month of February. So when will we finally see a glimpse into warmer temperatures?
Long range models are continually predicting shades of warmer days ahead. The first week of March will be similar to the past few weeks, but the second week of March should see a change. the cold arctic air will retreat North of the Dixie line and allow us to finally see consecutive days in the upper 60's and possibly 70's. A more typical spring-time weather pattern will become active in relative form.
Near March 8/9 a noticeable mid-latitude cyclone will transverse across the central portion of the country, and this might be a potential severe weather event for the Mississippi River Valley. The variables of warm temps and more moisture will be a welcome characteristic to many.
Long range models are continually predicting shades of warmer days ahead. The first week of March will be similar to the past few weeks, but the second week of March should see a change. the cold arctic air will retreat North of the Dixie line and allow us to finally see consecutive days in the upper 60's and possibly 70's. A more typical spring-time weather pattern will become active in relative form.
Near March 8/9 a noticeable mid-latitude cyclone will transverse across the central portion of the country, and this might be a potential severe weather event for the Mississippi River Valley. The variables of warm temps and more moisture will be a welcome characteristic to many.
Discussion on Tonight and Monday
Active weather report tonight so let's get moving.
Tonight a well circulating Low Pressure system is running through the lower mississippi river valley. Instability is very low with the progression of the system, but we could still have the occassional rumble of thunder along the way. The movement of the low is east with a southerly component. This will actually keep us from getting heavy amounts of rain, but I can still expect near 0.50" for the region. Folks along the coast could see closer to an inch.
This system will clear quickly going into Saturday, and allow Sunday for plenty of sunshine along an upper level ridge. A ridge that will be sharp and brief.
Our next trough (low) will begin to influence our weather on Monday. The ridge will be kicked east by a progressing upper level low and surface low along the northern gulf. Typically, a low along the gulf delivers a shot of snow and wintry mix in Mississippi, but we need to be careful with this idea. Computer models are probably going to perform poorly since snow on March 1 is abnormal, and most are calling for all rain on Monday. Will this be all rain or end with wintry mix/snow? At this point, I believe we could find snowfall without accumulation late Monday night. Best chance of any accumulation should be found farther Norther near central MS.
Tonight a well circulating Low Pressure system is running through the lower mississippi river valley. Instability is very low with the progression of the system, but we could still have the occassional rumble of thunder along the way. The movement of the low is east with a southerly component. This will actually keep us from getting heavy amounts of rain, but I can still expect near 0.50" for the region. Folks along the coast could see closer to an inch.
This system will clear quickly going into Saturday, and allow Sunday for plenty of sunshine along an upper level ridge. A ridge that will be sharp and brief.
Our next trough (low) will begin to influence our weather on Monday. The ridge will be kicked east by a progressing upper level low and surface low along the northern gulf. Typically, a low along the gulf delivers a shot of snow and wintry mix in Mississippi, but we need to be careful with this idea. Computer models are probably going to perform poorly since snow on March 1 is abnormal, and most are calling for all rain on Monday. Will this be all rain or end with wintry mix/snow? At this point, I believe we could find snowfall without accumulation late Monday night. Best chance of any accumulation should be found farther Norther near central MS.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Active Weather Pattern Ahead
The weather center is busy to say the least. No, hurricane season is still a few months away, but the weather pattern is active and coming our way. Let's break this down with each possible system moving through.
1) The first cold front is moving through today. This will squeeze out the moisture left in the air after Sunday night's system. Expect showers after 6pm and lasting through Wednesday morning. After midnight we might see the rain mix with flurries, but this isn't going to be a big issue. No accumulation will be expected and road temperature will be above freezing all night. After the cold front pushes through, Wednesday will be a cool day with highs only near 50.
2) A low pressure system will push directly through Mississippi on Friday afternoon. Rain amounts are a little uncertain at this time, but some folks think latest model runs are a little too aggressive with bucket totals. The rain/snow line will be trailing the surface Low and give a second potential for flurries close to midnight Friday night. Once again, snow is not worthy of discussing.
Next two systems could change quite a bit, but here is what could happen in the long range....
3) Early Monday morning another shortwave will develop along the northern Gulf Coast. And, of course, we will see another chance of rain Monday morning. As of now, this event has the makings of all rain.
4) Two weeks from today models are trying to show a strong mid-lattitude cyclone driving through the mid-mississippi river valley. This event typically produces the threat for severe weather in our area.
Well there is the four system setup. Many things will change as our atmosphere evolves before and after each system, but the pattern is definitely active in our near future. As the Spring equinox nears and the sun angle continues to increase any snow talk will be out the door. All discussion will then be keeping an eye on cyclones developing for severe weather potential going into March and April. Don't worry, we aren't here to overhype any situation, but we will let you know of any updates you should know.
Thanks for following
1) The first cold front is moving through today. This will squeeze out the moisture left in the air after Sunday night's system. Expect showers after 6pm and lasting through Wednesday morning. After midnight we might see the rain mix with flurries, but this isn't going to be a big issue. No accumulation will be expected and road temperature will be above freezing all night. After the cold front pushes through, Wednesday will be a cool day with highs only near 50.
2) A low pressure system will push directly through Mississippi on Friday afternoon. Rain amounts are a little uncertain at this time, but some folks think latest model runs are a little too aggressive with bucket totals. The rain/snow line will be trailing the surface Low and give a second potential for flurries close to midnight Friday night. Once again, snow is not worthy of discussing.
Next two systems could change quite a bit, but here is what could happen in the long range....
3) Early Monday morning another shortwave will develop along the northern Gulf Coast. And, of course, we will see another chance of rain Monday morning. As of now, this event has the makings of all rain.
4) Two weeks from today models are trying to show a strong mid-lattitude cyclone driving through the mid-mississippi river valley. This event typically produces the threat for severe weather in our area.
Well there is the four system setup. Many things will change as our atmosphere evolves before and after each system, but the pattern is definitely active in our near future. As the Spring equinox nears and the sun angle continues to increase any snow talk will be out the door. All discussion will then be keeping an eye on cyclones developing for severe weather potential going into March and April. Don't worry, we aren't here to overhype any situation, but we will let you know of any updates you should know.
Thanks for following
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Latest Update on Conditions
Storms in Pine Belt now...
I wouldn't be surprised to see Columbia, Sumrall, and Laurel in a Flash Flood Warning here soon. A long line of storms are training together to cause a probable flash flooding event for this corridor between Columbia and Laurel.
Instability is lower in SE MS and conditions are slightly shy of notable hail parameters. You might still be able to find pea size hail embedded in the strong cells.
Lightning is also another issue. I haven't heard of any lightning strikes at this time. There's just a lot of cloud-to-cloud right now.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Columbia, Sumrall, and Laurel in a Flash Flood Warning here soon. A long line of storms are training together to cause a probable flash flooding event for this corridor between Columbia and Laurel.
Instability is lower in SE MS and conditions are slightly shy of notable hail parameters. You might still be able to find pea size hail embedded in the strong cells.
Lightning is also another issue. I haven't heard of any lightning strikes at this time. There's just a lot of cloud-to-cloud right now.
Thunderstorms rolling through
Watching some storms roll across South Mississippi tonight. Main threat tonight involves small to moderate size hail embedded in isolated cells. Many folks have already reported an abundance of lightning with thunderstorms in SW MS this evening.
After 9pm areas of the Pine Belt will begin seeing the thunderstorms, but most folks won't see much until after 10pm.
After 9pm areas of the Pine Belt will begin seeing the thunderstorms, but most folks won't see much until after 10pm.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Next Two Systems
I'm titling my forecast "Two Events" because we have two different opportunities to see rain in the next four days.
The first rain event will come tomorrow and into tomorrow night. A low pressure system will push through the middle mississippi river valley. We could see light showers in the area near midday but light to moderate showers late in the evening. Instability isn't enough to be noted as a severe weather day, but some isolated spots along and south of hwy 98 could see small hail embedded in thunderstorms.
The second event will take place late Tuesday night. This will be a second cold front that will deliver a real punch of cold air and remove any moisture leftover from Sunday's front. As of now, light showers will be found in the Pine Belt, but I think this will change a little in the next forecast period.
The first rain event will come tomorrow and into tomorrow night. A low pressure system will push through the middle mississippi river valley. We could see light showers in the area near midday but light to moderate showers late in the evening. Instability isn't enough to be noted as a severe weather day, but some isolated spots along and south of hwy 98 could see small hail embedded in thunderstorms.
The second event will take place late Tuesday night. This will be a second cold front that will deliver a real punch of cold air and remove any moisture leftover from Sunday's front. As of now, light showers will be found in the Pine Belt, but I think this will change a little in the next forecast period.
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