8/28 Tropical Update

Model consensus has shifted a notch west this morning. The model's new placement is partially due to Gustav's location farther south/west than predicted, but I also believe the ridge is picked up a little better in the model runs.  

Gustav is expected to strengthen within the next 48 hours. I wouldn't surprised to wake up Saturday morning to a Cat 3 in the Yucatan Channel.  Once Gustav moves past Jamaica and Cuba I expected the forward motion

 to increase through the open Gulf.  

One thing I have continued to look at is the focus on the performance in the Pacific/East Asia.  Usually we can line things up with t

he Gulf Coast and forecast the strength of trough/ridge 7-9 days out.  Today we are only 5 days out from Gustav's landfall but we can still track the motion across the Pacific Ocean.

This system moving across is another additive to show me a ridge effecting the Eastern US by Tueseday/Wednesday.  

Initial perspective still leans me to forecast landfall in SE TX and SW LA.  High risk areas include Houston, TX through LaFayette, LA.