Sunday, August 29, 2010

Hurricane may threaten east coast.

Hurricane Earl is forecast to become a major hurricane over the next several days and computer models indicate that it may come dangerously close to the U.S. east coast. At this time the hurricane is not likely to pose a threat to our area. Of more concern is the system that is forming to the east of Earl. That system also may become a major hurricane in the upcoming week and one reliable model has the storm "Fiona " hitting south Florida and then hitting the northern coast of the gulf. Please remember models that predict that far in the future can be totally off base, but I would be prepared just in case !Rex

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Rain chances will remain good through the rest of the weekend.

A low pressure area is currently producing periods of rain over our neck of the woods and the rain chances look good through Sunday. A Flash Flood Watch may be required by Sunday if the heavier rains persist. The tropics are still very active but at this time, there appears to be little if any threat coming to the gulf coastal region for at least the next week or so. Of course that could change if something forms closer to home. Earl is forecast to be a major hurricane by the middle of next week and may threaten the east coast. Rex

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Active tropical scene-but we are safe for now !

We currently have Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl out in the far eastern Atlantic. At this time it appears that both of these storms will curve north well away from the U.S. mainland. There are more tropical waves that are forecast to move off the African coast in the next week or so and computer models indicate that some of these will develop into named storms. As we get closer to Labor Day, we may see some increased activity in the gulf. We will continue to monitor the situation as we are now reaching the peak of the hurricane season. For right now our weather is being controlled by an area of high pressure giving us hot days and mild nights. Rex

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Nice nights-tropics heating up fast !

High pressure currently over the deep south is providing us with hot and dry days but nice and less humid nights. Little if any rain is in the forecast for at least the next two days but by the weekend we will see a gradual increase in our afternoon rain chances. As far as the tropics are concerned, hurricane Danielle remains well out in the far Atlantic and will pose no threat to the U.S. mainland. Further to the south of Danielle is another tropical wave that appears to be organizing into what will eventually become "Earl" but it to is forecast to take a similar path as Danielle and should pose little threat to the states. Another disturbance is forecast to move off the African coast during the next few days and may take a more westerly track which could possibly pose a threat to the states in about a week and a half. There is also another area of disturbed weather located in the western gulf that we will monitor for some development over the next few days. Rex

Monday, August 23, 2010

Cool front in August !!

A rather rare cool front is moving through our area this morning and behind it we will see drier and less humid air, especially at night ! Highs will continue to be in the 90s but lows for the next several nights should make it into the upper 60s ! As far as rain chances are concerned, we have a 20 % chance today but little if any rain is expected Tuesday through Thursday. As far as the tropics are concerned, Tropical Storm Danielle remains far out in the eastern Atlantic and although it is forecast to become a hurricane, most reliable computer models indicate that the storm will not have any effect on the gulf coast. More tropical waves are forecast to move off the African coast over the next week or so and some of those will likely develop into named storms. We will monitor them for any signs of coming into the gulf. There is the possibility that a "home grown" storm could form in the gulf on an old frontal system later this week. If indeed that does happen, those storms aren't usually very strong but can be huge rain makers. We will monitor that situation as well. In the mean time, enjoy the next several nights as they will tend to be cooler and much less humid. Rex

Friday, August 20, 2010

Back to normal for the weekend-maybe !

For the weekend we should see chances for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 90s and lows in 70s. A "cool" front is forecast to possibly make it all the way down to the coast early next week. If indeed this does occur, don't looke for any cooler weather-just less chances for rain. In fact, temps next week or forecast to reach the mid 90s for highs and stay in the 70s for overnight lows. There is some hint at some type of tropical development in the Gulf sometime next week- but we will just have to wait and see what happens with that. There is a good chance that Danielle will form in far out in the open Atlantic over the next few days but all reliable forecast models keep the storm away from the United States. I still fully expect to see a marked increase in tropical cyclone formation over the next few weeks, but we will tackle that issue starting next week. Have a great weekend. Rex

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Rather impressive rain amounts-in some locations this morning.

Some of our Alfa Insurance Skycams collected some nice rain this morning. Petro Nissan out in west Hattiesburg had 1.17 as of noon but the big winner up to this point is the JCJC location in Ellisville coming in with 1.97 and still raining there lightly. Forrest General Hospital has collected .58 BUT Grubbs Motors in Columbia comes in with only 00.01 ! That is typical of a decaying tropical system. It dumped an estimated 10 plus inches in soutwest MS yesterday ! Some models are trying to bring yet ANOTHER tropical system to the central gulf coast late next week !!! As I am fond of saying-Stay Tuned ! Rex

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Former TD # 5 still producing rain !

Former TD # 5 continues to produce rain in the Pine Belt and it's remants may do so for the next day or so. The tropics are on verge of exploding from all of the evidence that I am seeing. I truly think the forecast for an above season is about to be realized. Stay tuned !!!

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Lot's of humidity and moisture !

The remains of former TD # 5 if forecast to move inland across southeast Louisiana today and that should enhance our shower activity for the next few days. Some isolated areas could see some very heavy downpours but at this time flash flooding is not expected to be an issue but we will continue to monitor the situation. As far as the extended forecast is concerned, more of the same is pretty much on the plate as we will continue to see hot and humid days with a chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Some of the models hint that a cold front could make it all the way down to the coast early next week, but, quite frankly, that rarely happens this time of year in the deep south-but we can hope ! Today is the 41st anniversary of Hurricane Camille-the very reason I am in this business today. I was 8 years old and living in Columbia over in Marion county when the storm came through. We had 120 mph sustained winds and gusts estimated to be at 140 mph ! It made a huge impression on me and I have been hooked on weather ever since ! Rex

Monday, August 16, 2010

Former TD # 5 trying to make redevelop over northern gulf !

Former tropical depression number 5 is trying to reform south of the Florida Panhandle this morning. Most models track the system westward into Louisiana over the next few days and it may reach minimal tropical storm strength. No matter what happens with it-it appears that the system will bring several days of possible heavy rain to our area beginning on Tuesday and possibly lasting into Thursday. We will keep you updated ! Rex

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Should we write the obit for TD # 5 ?

What you are about to read may seem totally off the wall but the GFS weather model takes the remains of former TD # 5 and moves it into Alabama over the weekend-then takes it back to around Mobile by Sunday or Monday and redevelopes it into a much stronger tropical cyclone next week moving it back into Mississippi !!!! Strange things can happen in the weather but if this does occur I will be totally shocked !! Should be very interesting to watch in the least. For today into Friday we should see periods of heavy rain from former TD # 5 as it works it's way inland. The tropics are forecast to become VERY active around August 20th ! Stay tuned !!! Rex

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Update on TD # 5

The latest information from the National Hurricane Center indicates that the depression has not changed much in strength since this morning. The system may reach minimal tropical storm status before making landfall early Thursday morning southeast of New Orleans. The system is then expected to curve more northward and the latest track indicates that it will go directly over the Pine Belt but be a very slow moving system which could create a very heavy rainfall event for this area. We will continue to monitor the system closely and will continue to update our blogs-tweets and website throughout the event. I will also issue my usual forecast on the air at noon today. Rex

Windy-rainy weather expected !

As of this writing, tropical depression number 5 is located in the southeast gulf and is moving northwest. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm before making landfall on the Mississippi coast early Friday morning. What this means for our area is increasing winds and rain for Thursday on into Friday. At this point winds are forecast to be in the 20-30 mph range on Thursday and increasing Thursday night and by Friday we may have 45 mph winds along with periods of heavy rain. The storm is not expected to reach hurricane strength at this time but will have to be monitored closely. We will continue to update our blog throughout the day. Rex

Friday, August 6, 2010

Not quite as hot for the next few days !

We have fairly good chances for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms for the next few days that will keep our temps from soaring into the triple digits. Highs today through the weekend will range from the lower to mid 90s and lows mainly in the mid 70s. The tropics are becoming quite active but nothing will threaten our area in the forseeable future. Have a great weekend ! Rex

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Rain chances increasing !

Although very hot weather will continue for the rest of the week our shower and thunderstorm chances are increasing with the National Weather Service predicting a 60% chance for today and Friday and a 50% chance on Saturday and 40% on Sunday. Although most of the showers and storms will occur in the afternoon and early evening, some may form overnight as they did in parts of the viewing area this morning. Highs will continue to be in the 90s each day with lows in the 70s but with the added chances for rain hopefully the triple digits highs are behind us for awhile. Rex

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Heat records set in Pine Belt Monday

Hattiesburg set a new record high on Monday when the mercury soared to 103 degrees breaking the old record for the date of 98 set back in 1998. The record high for today is 99 set back in 1999 and the forecast calls for 101 so another record may be set today. There will eventually be some relief from the heat as we get into Thursday on into Saturday as the temps or forecasted to reach only the mid 90s. Lows will continue to be in the 70s each night. Tropical Storm Colin is out in the open Atlantic and models indicate that it should not be a threat to the gulf at this time. Rex

Monday, August 2, 2010

Heat records may be broken today-Colin about to be born ?

The record high for today in Hattiesburg is 98 degrees set back in 1998. The National Weather Service is forecasting 101 for today, so, we may see a new record high for this date set ! The heat will linger into tomorrow when 100 is forecast. We will gradually see our highs back down to the mid 90s by the end of the week with increased chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lows will continue to be in the 70s each night. Now on to the tropics. A strong tropical wave in the central Atlantic is continuing to become better organized and a tropical depression is likely to form at anytime. Models indicate the system will eventually become a named storm and the name will be "Colin". It is far too soon to predict where "Colin" may end up so stay tuned and we will keep you informed. Stay cool !!!! Rex