Monday, August 31, 2009

A glimpse into September

It's turned into a beautiful day here in the Leaf River Valley. The fog/clouds have dissipated this morning to deliver Mostly Sunny conditions for the remainder of the day. High pressure in the Ohio River Valley is contributing to the drier and cooler air now in place. The dry air will definitely radiate it's energy tonight so temps will drop into the 50's for much of the area, and, yes, the first day of September will have a "cool" start.

What to expect in September? The month looks to be starting off on the dry side and slightly below normal in temperature. Remember, September is the 3rd driest month of the year behind October, first, and June, second. A quick look at Climate Prediction Center depicts an "equal" (or average) month to come, but if we were to swing on one side of the fence I would jump on the below normal side. The unfortunate forecast doesn't depict a major precipitation month, which will further increase our abnormal drought conditions across the area.

It also looks like we might be missing our shot at gaining rain from a tropical system, which is probably a relief to many. The main benefit from a tropical system is the deliverance of rain to help drought conditions, but we might be on our way to another rain deficit year again.

Tomorrow I'll have a wrap on the unpredictable August of 2009.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Notes and Bits to chew on

Recognizing the 4th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina today...

Otherwise, a cold front is slowly progressing through the state today, but the complete front will not push through until tomorrow. This will stir up some thunderstorms in the area. Scattered trends will be my wording for tomorrow from daybreak till the afternoon.

The best news will be the dropping temps overnight to start the work week. Similar to last week, overnight lows will dip to the 60 degree mark, and I'll expect some areas to see upper 50's. This "cool" trend will surprisingly stick around for longer than usual. Like an October system, we'll experience a lack of rain to start September, but the humidity will be back next weekend for the start of College Football.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Weekend showers ahead of cold front !

There is only a slight chance of seeing a shower today but our chances increase for Saturday and Sunday afternoons as a cool front pushes our way. By Sunday night the front should have passed south of the area resultinig in drier and less humid conditions for the beginning of next week. A new tropical disturbance between South American and the coast of Africa bears watching! We will keep you posted ! Rex

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Afternoon weather update!

A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm could devlop over the area by this afternoon so the rain chances have been upped to 40%. Tropical Storm Danny will not be much of a player in our weather as it is expected to remain well east of the gulf. A new disturbance near the African coast will have to be watched as it moves further west into the Atlantic. Rex

Another front on the way !

Yet another cold front will move into our area by the weekend. This will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday-but the chances are only around 40%. After the frontal passage more unseasonably cooler and drier weather will arrive for Sunday into early next week. Danny is NOT a threat to our area !

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Danny forms !

Tropical Storm Danny has formed in the Atlantic but will not pose a threat to the Gulf coastal area. It may brush the outer banks of the Carolinas and or New England but most likely will remain at sea. Rex

Another dry and warm day !

We are going to have another dry and almost hot day here in the Pine Belt with highs around 90. Mostly clear tonight with lows again in the 60s. A slight chance for a shower or two for Thursday and Friday with highs around the 88-90 degree range and lows in the upper 60s. A slightly better chance for showers on Saturday but the chances aren't that great. Another cool front will move through the area by Sunday resulting in ending rain chances and drier and cooler conditions for the begining of next week. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Danny may form in the Atlantic today but will pose no theat to the Gulf coastal area. Rex

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Tracking Invest 92L with ECMWF

Like we've discussed multiple times in our weathercast, Invest 92L will be a threat to the East Coast. Many early model runs predicted the storm to follow a similar track as Hurricane Bill, but I must lean on the strong ECMWF (otherwise known as European) model. This model continues to prove it's high ranking in tropical guidance. It was the first model to nail Bill's track, and I think many folks can agree on it's track of Invest 92 at this point. ECMWF has Invest 92 farther west into North Carolina and Maryland on Saturday morning.

Also, I expect Invest 92 to become a depression by Thursday, and some intensity models forecast tropical storm Danny by Friday.

Why trust a crazy model named ECMWF? Well it's proved itself multiple times. Now lets define the model...

The ECMWF stands for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is supported by 31 European states. The main purpose of the model is to provide forecast 3 to 10 days for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Slight changes made to our long range forecast.

We have made a few adjustments to our long range forecast. Have added a slight chance for a shower on Thursday and have increased rain chances to around 30% for Saturday and Sunday. We have removed rain chances for Monday as by then another cool front will have passed resulting in slightly cooler and drier weather for the beginning of next week. Rex

String of nice weather days to continue !

We will have several more days of this very nice for August in Mississippi type weather. We will top out in the upper 80s today and around 90 for Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will continue to be in the 60s. Another cold front is forecast to arrive early next week!!! If these cool fronts keep coming through we may not have too much to worry about from the tropics this year-but of course that remains to be seen as we are now in the heart of the hurricane season. There is a disturbance out to the northeast of the Leeward islands but if it does develop it will likely either affect the east coast or stay out to sea. We will keep you informed. Rex

Monday, August 24, 2009

This is not normal...

The past few days have been fantastic! High's in the 80s, Low's in the 50's and 60's, and in Hattiesburg, we tied a 52 year old record this morning when HBG recorded 58 degrees.

In fact, we may even set a record again Tuesday morning.

However, you should know that this is not normal. In the coming days you will notice highs back to the seasonal 90's and lows will be back up to the upper 60's.

Nice weather to continue for the next few days!

Sunny and warm today with highs in the mid 80s. Clear and cool tonight with lows in the upper 50s. Mostly sunny and warm for Tuesday through Thursday with highs around 90 and lows in the 60s. Friday through Sunday mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance for showers each day. Highs around 90 and lows in the upper 60s. Rex

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Notes to Remember

Wonderful day again for this Sunday! I hope you were able to enjoy the weather. Unfortunately I was unable to bring my desk outside this afternoon while I made my forecast.

A couple points I want to make:

1)Moisture will begin to return Wednesday when a Low forms over the Arkansas Ozarks
2)The Low will bring us a better chance of showers on Friday/Saturday
3)The tropics will seem to only have a few weeks left for any activity. Why? The MJO forecast that tracks the tropics shows a major decrease in rising air in the mid-Atlantic, which helps produce cyclones. This doesn't mean anything can't form after mid-September, but the odds become even lower. Now we are watching to see if the Atlantic takes advantage of the "limited" time.
4)A tropical depression might for mid-week an impact the Carolinas. We'll be keeping an eye on this developing Wednesday.

Have a good week!

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Good Stuff

Wonderful weather hits the Pine Belt today with an overwhelming applause. High temps today barely hit the upper 80's. 86 was our high here at the station. Dewpoint Temps dropped to the 50's, which we haven't seen those digits in a long time.

The relief from the muggy heat will stick around through Monday. Enjoy it!

I've been looking over some things on the tropics, and I think the tropics have a few weeks left to produce anything. The window exist from mid-August to mid-September. I'll try to talk about this point in a blog tomorrow.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Define Heavy Rain

We've received 1.50" in 30 minutes so far here in Eastabuchie (South Jones County). The heavy rain is causing minor flooding issues all across the Pine Belt this evening.
Also, high school football games are dealing with the water issues on the fields, and lightning will keep folks from playing at the moment.

Feel free to report your rain totals from your house. Email me at

Thanks! and Be Safe!

Thunderstorms Roll Through

The roadways are very dangerous under the thunderstorms rolling through the Pine Belt at this time. Hwy 84 was recently thrashed with heavy rain in the last few minutes.

A major complex of storms are headed Southeast very quickly ahead of a cold front. Here is the latest Warning...

JAN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Covington, Forrest, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar, Lawrence, Marion [MS] till 6:15 PM CDT

The biggest impact of this will be heavy rain and wind potentially 30-40mph.

Drier and less humid weather on the way !

We have a good chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today before a cold front sweeps through overnight bringing with it much drier and less humid air. No rain is forecast Saturday into next Wednesday. Highs may reach the lower 90s on Saturday but it will be in the 80s for Monday and Tuesday. Lows Saturday night into next week will be in the 60s ! Have a great weekend ! Rex

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Lightning Tonight...Low Humidity Arrives Soon

Watching a good lightning show tonight from the South as a cluster of thunderstorms clash through Jones County. Good news that we haven't heard any news from you guys up there and the storms are dissipating.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to swing through South Mississippi in accordance with a frontal passage. A cold front will slowly creep southward tomorrow and deliver a rumbling, but the weekend should become very nice behind the front. I expect the front completely move through between midnight and 3am Saturday morning.

Dewpoints in the lower 60s will be a nice change from Td's in the mid-70's...unless you like the sticky goodness of mid-70s dewpoints. I know we all have our likes and dislikes.

This cold front is dropping in from a unusually robust Mid-lattitude cyclone near the Great Lakes, and added to a major ridge/trough setup nation wide. But we can also thank our friend, Bill, churning deep atmospheric blunders to the global pattern for a bit.

A lower level High pressure system will control our sunny forecast going through Sunday and into Tuesday. Enjoy!

Cold front coming !

We have a good chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers today and Friday. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with rather high humidity. The big news is the cold front that is still progged to push through early in the weekend. This should result in dry and less humid conditions Saturday into early next week. Highs through that period are forecast to be in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s! Rex

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

August cold front on the way !!

The tropics have calmed down-at least for us-for now. Our big news this morning is a cold front that is forecast to move through sometime Friday night and it will bring with it much drier, less humid air for the weekend into early next week. Lows for the upcoming weekend will be in the 60s !! Wow! That's great for August for our neck of the woods. For today through Friday we will run the chance for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 90-92 degree range and lows in the lower to mid 70s. Back to the tropics. Bill is a major cat 4 hurricane but is forecast to recurve in the Atlantic and miss the U.S. Whew ! That's good news for the states !

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Tropics not a big player at this point !

We are tracking Hurricane Bill out in the Atlantic but it appears that the system will begin a more northerly track and that will lessen the threat to the U.S. a great deal. Whats left of Ana appears to be of little concern at this time. A deep east coast trough is forecast to develop by the weekend and that will send a cold front down through our area for the weekend resulting in less humid weather and slightly cooler nights. We are also forecasting dry weather for the weekend into early next week. Rex

Monday, August 17, 2009

Tropics active !

The remnants of Claudette will move northwest into east central Mississippi today. The National Weather Service has our area with an 80% chance for showers and thunderstorms with highs in the upper 80s. The atmosphere is forecast to remain quite moist and there is a 70% chance for more showers and storms on Tuesday withh highs again in the upper 80s. Humid weather is on tap through Saturday with a chance for a few afternoon and early evening showers and storms each day with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. By Sunday a cool front is forecast to move through and bring drier and slightly cooler weather with highs in the upper 80s. As for as Ana and Bill, at this time Ana should be very weak when and if it moves into the Gulf and Bill, which is now a hurricane, is forecast to remain at sea and possibly never have any effect on the U.S. We will keep you posted ! Rex

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Do you know your A-B-C's?

Ana, Bill, Claudette makes for a very busy weekend. Raise your hand if you picked Claudette to be the first landfall system? Reminds me of my luck in March Madness brackets.

Claudette hasn't quite made landfall tonight at 10:30pm, but Fort Walton Beach is on the doorstep for the main center of circulation in the next hour. After landfall, the system will disipate quickly while we maintain our position on the "weak" "dry" side of the storm. We'll probably need to be on the watch for a possible spin-up tornado which we usually find with landfall systems.

Next, Ana could easily be downgraded to a tropical wave on Monday. The storm has been falling apart all day and will struggle to find any regeneration in the next few days. But as a meteorologist friend said, "Don't sleep on Ana!" Things could pop once it enters the Gulf.

Finally, Bill is the real tropical storm the nation should be watching. The best news is declaring the forecast track seems to take the north in the Atlantic after a break in the atlantic ridge. A Gulf entry is near unlikely at this point with most models making a consensus on a Northward track starting midweek. The biggest U.S. risk should be the Carolinas and eastern coast line next weekend. But Bill has a classic setup and will steadily build into a Hurricane by tomorrow. The system is liable to reach Category 4 limits by Friday, but some limiting factors of shear and dry air could hinder the explosion of intensity.

That's your A-B-Cs.

Tropical Storms Update (Sunday Afternoon)

Tropical Storm Claudette continues it's northwest movement towards Panama City. Radar loop from the KTLH in Tallahassee clearly shows the cyclonic rotation in the rain/thunderstorms. In fact, the main threat with Claudette is the heavy rain, but wind doesn't seem to be a major factor. Only one or two isolated areas very close to right side of the center will see 45+ winds.

Ana has now become a tropical depression as it continues to fight off dry air and shearing. The system was very small to begin with, and I expect the storm to continue to disipate into Monday. My main concern comes at the end of the week. It might quietly sneak through into the Gulf and then develop into a Tropical Storm again.

Tropical Storm Bill is a real "beast" at this point. The storm has impressive banding and outflow, which makes me think the storm will continue to intesify. Bill could easily be a hurricane by Monday. The GFDL has Bill becoming a Cat. 4 by weeks end. Where is Bill going? The GFS model has finally agreed with reliable EMCWF and turned Bill into the Atlantic. A break in the Atlantic Ocean ridge will allow the strong storm to move in a northerly vector by Tuesday.

Could see Claudette named tonight

The tropical low in the Eastern Gulf has now become Tropical Depression 4 overnight. The storm has become a well organized system will better rotation in the last 12 hours, and multiple models show TD4 become a tropical storm before landfall.

Landfall will be this evening near Panama City, FL.

We will have updates at the top of every hour starting at 1pm.

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Watching Low in the Gulf

Along with Tropical Storms Ana and Bill, I'm also watching Invest 91 (Tropical Low) in the Eastern Gulf. The storm is producing a nice circulation visible on radar reflectivity over Southern/Central Florida. I don't expect a lot with this system, but thunderstorms and "tropical-like" air mass can consume Alabama and the Pine Belt through Monday.

My list of tropical disturbances is as follows: Invest 91 (in the Gulf), Tropical Storm Ana, Tropical Storm Bill, and a new tropical wave on the coastline of Africa.

After Ana and Bill, the next name in line is Claudette. Will the next tropical wave be the 3rd named storm of the season? We have much to figure out in the next few days. Tropical Storm Ana will be near Florida Wednesday/Thursday.

1 Day and 2 Tropical Storms

A very eventful day here in the weathercenter. A quiet hurricane season has led to a Saturday on August 15 to remember. Tropical Storm Ana (ah-na) was named this morning and then the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression 3 to Tropical Storm Bill. Both have similar stats on paper, but the satellite images tell two stories. Each storm is traveling near 16mph west with maximum winds at 40mph. The difference in the storms is seen by noticing the small size of Ana and the width of Bill. Also, a lot of mid-level dry air is in the pathway of Ana, but Bill is surrounded by a healthy dose of moisture and latent heat to feast upon. Thirdly, Ana will temporarily compete with higher shear of 15kts.

Forecasting the two storms is a little tricky. It apperas model consesus has both moving in a west-northwest motion, which drops Ana on the Southern tip of Florida. Although it is uncertain at this time if Ana will still be strong enough to maintain Tropical Storm strength. Bill is the more bullish storm, if you were to pick one. The positioning of the Atlantic ridge is a key player in the path of both storms.

Ana finally named

After talking about the tropical wave for over a week, Tropical Storm Ana is finally named by the National Hurricane Center this morning. Ana is moving west near 16mph, and the maximum sustained winds are near 40mph. The storm is located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic.

Do not get bogged down with just Ana alone. Tropical Depression #3 is East of Ana in the Atlantic, and it could be named "Bill" within the next 48 hours. TD3 has had my eye for the past week because nearly every model run in the past week has shown this system being stronger than Ana.

I'll keep you updated this weeked on any new developments. As for now remember Ana and TD3.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Future tropical troubles ?

We are going to have a nice stretch of weather for the next several days. Today and Friday we will top out in the lower 90s with no rain expected. Saturday is forecast to be dry as well. Lows will remain in the 70-72 degree range. By Sunday several tropical disturbances could begin to influence our weather as they come into the Gulf of Mexico. These disturbances could significantly increase our rain chances Sunday into Monday! Stay tuned ! Rex

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Tropics to become active !

Expect a few showers and thunderstoms this afternoon as a weak cool front moves through. Todays high should stay around 90. Partly cloudy tonight with lows around 70. Not a whole lot of excitment to the long range forecast for us in the Pine Belt. Expect hot and dry on Thursday with highs in the 93 degree range. Actually nice for Thursday night with lows in the upper 60s. For Friday into early next week, we will have a chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highs at times in the upper 80s and at times in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. For the next several weeks all indications are is that the tropics will become quite active with the possibility of having three named storms at once ! Where will they go ? It is way to early to tell !!!! Stay tuned !!! Rex

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Tropical Depression Two and More

Latest Tropical Depresssion Two advisory shows little strengthening in the last few hours, but the next few days could spell doom for the system. It is currently battling mid-level dry air and will soon move northwest into more shear (competing winds). So the end result appears to be a fall-out for TD2, but we will keep an eye out if anything else changes in the westward track.

Next, we must talk about what could form behind TD2. Popular models like the GFS and European (EMCWF) agree on a potent tropical cyclone developing off the coast of Africa in a few days. The formation area is between 10-15N Lattitude lines where shear values are remarkably low right now, which is perfect for tropical development. Also, the track seems to be west nearing the Caribbean by mid-week next week.

We'll keep watching things for you...

Weather update !

We have increased our shower and thunderstorm chances to 70% for this afternoon. Little if any severe weather is expected. Tropical update: We are currently tracking tropical depression two off the African coast. At this time the system poses no threat to the U.S. There is, however, another tropical disturbance just now coming off the African coast and many of the reliable computer models forecast it to possibly become a hurricane and could possibly be near the southeast coast of the U.S. in about ten days. A word of caution! That forecast is purely scientific in nature and is by no means exact! My advice is to just keep an eye on the tropics as we are entering the peak of the hurricane season and it never hurts to be prepared-just in case ! Rex

Tropical depression forms !

The secomd tropical depression of the 2009 hurricane season has formed off the coast of Africa and will likely become the first named storm of the season. It will be called "ANA". We have plenty of time to watch the system as it is over a week or so from any land areas. We have a good chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and on Wednesday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. Highs on Wednesday around 90. Highs for Thursday into the weekend will be in the lower 90s and lows in the 70-72 degree range. Range chances also drop off Thursday into the weekend. Rex

Monday, August 10, 2009

More of the same !

Expect a chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms pretty much the entire work week with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. The first tropical depression of the season could form near the African coast today or tomorrow. We will keep you posted ! Rex

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Another Pacific Storm. What's up Atlantic?

Clockwise flow produced by the strong High over Georgia has our convection moving in a northwest direction from the Gulf. This is unusually when we usually see showers moving west to east. As for the High, I expect the system to remain to our east into the extended forecast (5 days out).

Tonight I'm spending some time looking over the tropics. What is happening? Of course the Pacific has been active this year, including the current Hurricane, Felicia. The Satelliste Loop on Felicia is very symmetric as it is churning west towards Hawaii. Pacific storms won't touch us here in the Atlantic so what is happening in the Atlantic? Well my eyes are caught by a large convetion along the 20 degree west longitude line off the coast of Africa. This system looks to be in an area where development could incur in the near future, but it is very far away at this point. Another spot is found near the 55degree west longitudinal line. The overall look is less impressive, but I'll still be keeping an eye on it.

My overall thoughts of the tropics at this time seems to think something could develop in the next couple weeks. I'm not confident the development will effect the U.S., but I will be inclined to think the Atlantic will spurn a Named storm in the next 3 weeks. Like many of the models, most Mets (meteorologist) are wanting to forecast a tropical development between August 15 and Sept1. Here in the WDAM Weather center, we'll have to wait and be patient with every day's analysis. Take Care!

Friday, August 7, 2009

Hot and dry today but rain for the weekend !

Partly cloudy, dry and hot weather is on tap for our area today with highs in the mid 90s. Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the lower 70s. An upper level low is forecast to increase our shower and thunderstorm chances for the weekend keeping highs around 90 and lows in the lower 70s for Saturday and Sunday. For Monday into next week expect a more typcial August type forecast with a chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Have a GREAT weekend ! Rex

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Isolated Showers and hot!

Expect highs today and Friday to reach the lower to mid 90s. We are forecasting only a very slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm for both days. Mostly clear skies tonight with lows in the lower 70s. For Saturday we are forecasting pretty much the same with highs in the low to mid 90s and only slim chances for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Shower and thunderstorms chances will increase for Sunday into Wednesday with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Rex

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Slight Risk of Thunderstorms

NWS has put a majority of the Pine Belt in their line of "Slight Risk" of severe weather.
I'm currently watching a Complex of storms bullishly running southward throughout the state, but, as expected, the front line is falling apart near Jackson. I'll expect this advancement from the North to continue to fall apart, but our afternoon activity will come from the afternoon instability. Instability mixed with the Gulf moisture will react into scattered thunderstorms this evening.

The weekend forecast will put us on the fringe of a high pressure (stable air mass) positioned over the Carolinas. Since we will be on the edge of the ridge, our forecast for showers is difficult to be precise at this point, but I'm banking on a routine of afternoon showers in the area.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Tropical murmurs abound

Some folks in the weather world are mumuring over the ramp in activity starting mid-August and into September. This would not be an obvious comment in most years because we typically have more activity in the months of August/September. But in a year when the tropics have been very quiet, it's a bold statement to hear someone say they are highly confident tropical activity will increase. (I guess there is only way to go...) A couple of Global Model Forecast show an enhanced probability in the coming weeks. An experimental Tropical Cyclone Probability Forecast shows a marked ramp up in activity starting in mid-August, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) favors tropical development in it's forecast as well. Interesting facts to note, but only time will tell.

As of now, we are watching a cicle of convection march westward near 35W in the Atlantic. Compared to the season, this is a very healthy storm, but it has a long way to go before being a serious concern.

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Sunday Night Breakdown

Weather pattern is changing on us. My weather story revolves around seeing a shift in the Upper level jet to the North around KY and TN. The past week we've been sitting under an unusual setup with the jet abnormally placed over the lower mississippi river valley. So with a key mechanism for rain leaves our area, I'm going with a lower amount of rain this week. Although we must all realize the opportunity for isolated showers late in the afternoon to form in our muggy August days. The chances are low enough for me to keep the Percents out for a majority of the 7Day.

I'll have more updates in the morning! Hello early alarm clock.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Welcome August and Humidity!

Well the humidity has always been here, but I figure we can't welcome the month of August alone. Our seasonal featurette, humidity, is going to squeeze out more afternoon thunderstorms overnight and into Sunday. The best news for some might be recognizing the relative exit of our diurnal boundary thunderstorm systems. This is a tough call to make during this time of year, but a few computer models suggest a "less rain" forecast for this week. I'm taking this information in, but I'm still trying to look at a few different items for our extended forecast. Either way hot and muggy continues... I'll address the overnight showers tonight at 10pm.