Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Sunny and hot weather on tap for today and Wednesday !

Sunny and hot weather is in the forecast for today and Wednesday with highs today in the mid 90s and upper 90s on Wednesday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s on Wednesday. Dry and hot weather is forecast for Thursday and Friday with highs again in the mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s. A chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. Rex

Monday, June 29, 2009

Watching the Pacific Ocean. Why?

During a time of above average temperatures and relatively quiet tropical activity, I'm spending the afternoon reviewing current global atmospheric weather patterns. Tomorrow will end a very warm month for us in the Pine Belt, but I'm also noticing sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean warming as well. Why look to the Pacific when we are so far away? Global trends like El Nino and La Nina are important oscillations to follow for long-term forecasting, and the Pacific water temperature is a major variable in determining these phases. For nearly the whole past year we have been in a neutral phase, but the last few months have showed us a trend. The El Nino Southern Oscillation neutral phase is transition into an El Nino phase in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Since May 2009 the sea surface temperature anomalies have increased across the equatorial Pacific. Increasing anomalies refers to warming ocean water. What would an El Nino pattern mean for us? The effects of El Nino during June-August include an increase in tropical activity in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. The transition into an El Nino trend may be an added reason why the long-term tropical forecast seems relatively quiet in the Gulf, but we are technically still in a "neutral" phase until El Nino anomalies have been maintained for atleast 3 months. All in all, it's another two cents to put into the tropical outlook. Please email if you have any added questions! tcade@wdam.com

Slightly cooler tonight !

We are forecasting a 30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm today with highs in the upper 90s in some locations. Mostly clear and a little cooler weather is in store for tonight with lows in the mid 60s ! Sunny and hot weather will return for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. For Thursday through Sunday we are expecting highs to be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s-much better than the past few weeks ! Also there will be a chance for a shower or thunderstorm each afternoon through that time frame as well. Rex

Saturday, June 27, 2009

The forecast as we see it...

Our forecast this afternoon still deals with a high pressure system. The heat will still continue this week, but the only good news comes with seeing temps drop a few degrees into the mid-90's. This isn't a big change. On Monday a "cold" front will drop down into the Pine Belt to deliver a shot of rainfall, but this might actually take place more so into Sunday afternoon and evening. This will leave Monday with high rain chances south of hwy 98. Then our close relative, High Pressure, will drift back over the Pine Belt by Wednesday, and my forecast reflects clear skies and upper 90's for midweek. The biggest kicker in our weather center is overviewing the tropical situation. Invest 93, as the NWS has labeled the convection, will drift across the Yucatan Strait overnight and enter the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Model consensus shows me a split. Some models send the system west into TX and some models send it eastward in FL. This is good news for those of us here in MS. My thoughts currently think the system will turn east and head into FL. I'm still not completely convinced this tropical wave will develop into a Tropical Storm. More will play out in the next 48 hours.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Hot weekend on tap !

Very hot and mostly dry weather is forecast today through Sunday. We have a 10% chance for a shower this afternoon with highs in the upper 90s. Mostly clear skies for tonight with lows in the mid 70s. For Saturday expect highs again to reach into the upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Sunday temps could reach 100 under sunny skies! Some changes are forecast for Monday with cloudy skies and a 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms and that should keep the max temps in the lower 90s. Mid 90s are in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. Have a great weekend and stay cool ! Rex

Thursday, June 25, 2009

A slight chance ?

We have a very slight chance-10%- of seeing a shower or thunderstorm today here in the Pine Belt. Highs again will top out in the upper 90s. Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the lower 70s. Hot and dry weather is on tap for Friday with highs again in the upper 90s. For the weekend expect a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Rex

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

The bank says it's 107... and my car says 115!

With all the record heat over the past week, there's been a lot of people very interested in the air temperature. Nowadays, there's thermometers everywhere...our cars, the bank, plus a lot of personal weather stations that are linked together online. Many of these thermometers have readings that are very high when compared with the National Weather Service gauges. Some folks have told me that a bank say it's 107 degrees outside and their car says it's 115! Meanwhile, the NWS gauges are only reading 100 degrees.

So what gives?

Well the NWS puts its sensors in locations away from re-radiated heat. Sensors are solar-shielded and located at least ten feet away from trees, fences, buildings, concrete and asphalt.

Bank thermometers are usually inside a metal case which sit in direct sunlight. So the temp inside the box often gets hotter than the actual air temp.

All cars are not the same, but most car thermometers contain basically the same ingredient as a sophisticated weather station: a thermistor. However, these sensors are close to engine heat as well as re-radiated heat from the concrete and asphalt roads.

Sometimes people mount their thermometers on there roof or in direct sunlight, which is another reason you may have an inaccurate reading.

So it's fair to use your car and the bank to get a ball park reading, but it's probably best to trust the National Weather Service if you want a true reading. Here's a link to the conditions at the local airports.



Any Change?

If you are ready for a little change from dry and hot conditions, some good news seems to be on the way. Today the temperatures will start to take a small nose dive into the mid to lower 90's by the weekend. This falls from the main atmospheric ridge moving farther west and allowing more unstable air to filter into our region. Small areas of mechanical lift will be present throughout the weekend, but the main forecast rain during this time is slim. The GFS model still tries to drop a front on Monday, and a better chance of scattered thunderstorms can be expected from the potential front. Otherwise, as the High pressure system plays games with us in the south, some leftover energy will be left behind in the Gulf of Mexico. Models don't pick up on any future tropical activity from the leftover energy, but I will try to keep my eye out for anything worthy studying.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Another Record...

Thanks to this extreme heat, we set a record for the 3rd day in a row at HBG where it was 100 degrees. This breaks the old record of 98 set in 2006. We also hit 100 degrees at WDAM studios Monday. The last time we saw triple digits here, was back in August 2007.

Unfortunately the steam machine will go on. There's a slight chance that someone may see an isolated shower Tuesday afternoon, but don't hold your breath.


Breaking Records!

I'm following our continuing streak of breaking record highs at HBG (Bobby Chain Airport) in Hattiesburg. Saturday new record @ 100....Sunday new record @ 100...Today could easily be a new record at 100 again. Wow! This is a remarkable stretch here in the Pine Belt, but I'm also looking at other places in the country like Tallahassee, Florida. They've seen 6 straight days of triple digits! Since last Tuesday Tallahassee has experienced 100, 100, 101, 101, 103, and 102, respectively. Today could also be another 100 degree day for them. So we are not the only ones in the hot triple digit trend. Welcome Summer!

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Heat Wave "The Silent Killer"

We are obviously in a very warm and dry stretch here in mid-June. No rain since the 1st week in June and a stubborn Ridge of High Pressure quickly evolves into a HEAT WAVE. Many people have called Heat Waves a silent killer because it is not visible; it does not leave piles of wreckage. Who is most susceptible to heat related issues? Elderly persons, small children, chronic invalids, those on certain medications or drugs (especially tranquilizers and anticholinergics), and persons with weight and alcohol problems are particularly susceptible to heat reactions. Here are some possible heat disorders people can experience in Heat Index values between 105-130: Sunstroke, Heat cramps or Heat exhaustion likely, and Heatstroke possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. Most deaths in major heat waves occur in areas farther north than the Pine Belt (like Chicago) where many people don't have Air Conditioning. Most of us here in South Mississippi all have Air Conditioning, but we most use caution when exposed to the heat for an extended amount of time. Drink plenty of water!

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Triple Digits! Yes we have

Today we have officially touched the triple digit mark of 100 at both Hattiesburg-Laurel Airport (PIB) and Bobby L. Chain Airport (HBG). This has officially broken the long time record of 99 degrees at HBG. Our daily high temps continue to be well above the normal high for this time of year. Normally we see a High/Low of 91/69, but these days we are experiencing about 100/74. The forecast doesn't seem to waiver from this trend either. I'll also be on the lookout these next four days which could also be record breaking attempts. For the next few days the records currently stand at 99 (Sunday) 97 (Monday) 99 (Tuesday) 98 (Wednesday). Our highs will hover around the 98 to 99 mark, which will definitely challenge these record values. We also still look dry for the next several days as our mid-level moisture is very dry, but a late-week front will try to produce some showers. I'm not very confident in rainfall at this point.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Hot and dry weekend

Hot and dry weather will remain with us through the weekend into early next. Highs today through Monday will top out in the mid to upper 90s and lows will remain in the 70s. A slight chance for a shower or two is forecast for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Highs through that time period will be in the low to mid 90s and lows remaining in the lower 70s. Have a great weekend ! Rex

Thursday, June 18, 2009

What can we say ?

Only so many ways to say hot and dry but that is the forecast for at least the next several days. Highs today through Saturday are expected to top out in the upper 90s and lows will range from the low to mid 70s. Slightly cooler temps and a slight chance for rain is now in the forecast for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs those days will be in the lower to mid 90s and lows will remain in the lower 70s. Rex

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

It was hotter last year?!

We hit 96 degrees at the station and at HBG today. This makes today hotter than Tuesday, and the hottest day of 2009. This may catch some of you by surprise, but the June 17th record for HBG was actually set in 2008.... it was 99 degrees! How quickly we forget...


Hot and dry !

High pressure is still in control and will be for the next few days. Expect hot and dry weather through at least Friday with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the low 70s. Temps by the weekend may fall to the mid 90s for highs and lows will remain in the low 70s. The next chance for rain appears to be on Tuesday but chances are slim at best. Rex

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Hottest Day of 2009

Today was 2009s hottest day so far. We reached 95 at WDAM, PIB, and HBG. When you combine the humidity, it felt like it was over 100 degrees for an extended part of the afternoon. This is above average...in June we should be around 90 degrees. However, Tuesday's high is not a record. On June 16th, 1952 HBG hit 100 degrees.

Here's the best part... Wednesday and Thursday may be hotter!


Another hot forecast!

Hot and dry weather is forecast to prevail for our area at least through Friday. Highs each will be in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Rain chances look slim at best. Slightly cooler weather will arrive for the weekend with a slight chance for a shower on Sunday. Highs for the weekend will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Stay cool ! Rex

Monday, June 15, 2009

Even hotter weather on the way !

High pressure at both the surface and mid and upper levels will hang tuff this week allowing temps to rise to the mid 90s today and Tuesday and upper 90s Wednesday through Friday. Little if any rain is in the forecast for the next seven days. We may see a slight chance for a shower on Saturday but even that looks doubtful. Lows will continue to be in the lower 70s. Rex

Saturday, June 13, 2009

More of the same !!!

Mostly sunny, hot and dry weather is on tap Sunday through at least next Saturday. Highs each day will be in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. The tropics remain quiet as well. Have a great weekend and stay cool ! Rex

Friday, June 12, 2009

More of the same !

Not much change is in store for the weather forecast for the area through the weekend. High pressure remains firmly in control of the picture. Mostly sunny skies and hot weather is forecast for the next several days into early next week. Highs each day will range from the low to mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Have a great weekend ! Rex

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Stuck in the same weather pattern !

It appears that we are basically stuck in a warm and dry weather pattern that will most likely last at least for the next week or so. Highs each day will be in the 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Rain chances will be slim at best. In case you may be going to Omaha for the start of the big games the forecast for this Saturday and Sunday calls cloudy skies with only a slight chance for showers. Highs will be quite nice ranging from the mid to upper 70s each day-much better than ours ! Rex

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Hot and dry weather to continue!

Persistant high pressure is forecast to dominate our weather for at least the next seven days resulting in hot afternoon temps and warm nights. Humidity levels may be on the increase as well. Rain chances are now expected to be minimal at best. Highs each day are expected to range from around 93 to 95 and lows in the lower 70s. The tropics are also quite at this time. Could be the beginning of a long, hot summer ! Stay cool ! Rex

Expect the hot weather to continue!

For today into at least Saturday mostly sunny weather and hot conditions will exist here in the Pine Belt. Highs are expected to reach the lower 90s and lows will remain in the lower 70s. For Sunday into early next week only a slight chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will creep back into the forecast with highs still in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Rex

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Steam Machine

Today into Friday a strong area of high pressure will funnel warm air into south Mississippi and help keep the Pine Belt rain free. Consequently, we will see temps in the lower 90's for the next few days. Wednesday, may be the warmest day we have seen in 2009, but it will come with a nice breeze that may help temps be bearable.


Hot and mostly dry weather to continue

Expect mostly sunny and hot weather today with highs around 90. Rather warrm overnight under mostly clear skies with lows around 70. Hotter weather is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday with highs approaching the mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Saturday promises to be hot as well with highs in the lower 90s. A very slight chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday with highs still in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Rex

Monday, June 8, 2009

Hot weather to continue!

Sunny and hot weather is on tap for the next several days here in the Pine Belt,. Highs today and Tuesday will be in the low 90s. Partly cloudy weather is forecast tonight with lows in the upper 60s. For Wednesday expect even hotter weather with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the 70-72 degree range. Rex

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Forecast and Tropics Overview

A look into this week's forecast...We start by seeing a shift in the wind. The wind shift is key in finding more moisture via a southerly flow from the Gulf. The pull is started by the HIGH shifting east into Alabama/Georgia and it's clockwise wind flow. The next step in our weather pattern drops us inbetween two systems. The high will claim property to our East, but a Low (Trough) will stir convection (showers) to our Northwest. Meanwhile, the more dominate HIGH will keep us dry for a majority of the week. On Friday, the Low to our Northwest will finally try to swing a weak front into South Mississippi, but the rain chances are still very low. North Mississippi seems more certain for scattered thunderstorms, but our picture south of the I-20 border is unlikely. TROPICS: Some mild convection is popping up in the Western Caribbean, but no tropical development is expected in the next 48 hours. The Caribbean system has the opportunity to develop later in the week, and some models show the circulation moving towards Florida by next week. Stay with us for tropical discussion.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Record Low in Hattiesburg

Last night we tied a record low in Hattiesuburg. The record low of 57 was tied from the previous year in 2006. Other areas of the state also had a record lows. Greenwood tied the record at 55. Meridian set a new record low at 53.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Sunny weekend on the way !

Skies will clear today and we will have sunny weather for this afternoon into the entire weekend. Highs today will be in the mid 80s. Clear skies are on tap for tonight with lows around 60. For Saturday and Sunday expect highs to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the low 60s. Have a great weekend ! Rex

Thursday, June 4, 2009

And the Rain Came

The Front and Low Pressure system we have talked about is finally pushing through the area, but the pace of the system isn't setting any speed records. The current radar loop shows a good depiction of the counter clockwise movment of rain bands around the Low in North MS. This is why we have seen showers on and off all day. After a sluggish Thursday, I expect most of the rain to end near midnight. Wonder why no severe weather? Well the upper level mechanisms which help trigger severe weather are relatively low. This time of year its common to see the major jet stream way to our North, which aids in developing "spring storms" in our area. We've been in the track of several storms here at the station so we easily jumped over 1" for the day. Rain totals are expected to be mixed and random with the scattered activity. Otherwise, the weekend looks very nice. A peak into Saturday shows low humidity and a lot of sunshine. -tcade@wdam.com

Monday, June 1, 2009

2009 Atlantic Tropical Names

2009 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, and Wanda.

The tropics are quiet right now. No tropical activity is expected in the next 48 hours, but I'm thinking the next couple of weeks could be non-active as well. Be sure to check out our new Online Weather Tools, which includes the Tropical Future Cast, Gulf Satellite, Atlantic Satellite, and Hurricane Tracker.