Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Friday I expect a chance of light rain, but we may have a stormy Saturday as another boundary pushes through, so stay tuned.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Monday, December 29, 2008
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Friday, December 26, 2008
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
Tonight (Monday) will be another cold one. Fortunately mostly cloudy skies will help keep us from setting records... I think we will get down to about 29 degrees.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Before the cold air gets here we have to deal with some more rain and maybe thunderstorms. It's to early to talk about the potential for severe weather, so tune in Friday night for that.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than one quarter of a mile.
A forecast remains steady.... Warm through Saturday, a cold front will move in Sunday.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to less then one quarter mile.
Combine the moisture in place with light winds and we can look for widespread fog through out the night. Keep up with conditions by looking at our four Alfa SkyCams on the wdam.com weather page.
Monday, December 15, 2008
While all this is going on, we will have a lingering chance of rain. Not expecting severe weather, but an occasional strong downpour will be a possibility.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
Hattiesburg An EF1 Tornado on December 10th at 1:13 AM CST -- Damage occurred to 7 apartment buildings around Foxgate Ave near the intersection of I-59 and 98. Most of the damage was to siding and roofs. One of the apartment buildings has significant roof damage. Several hardwood and softwood trees downed. Two cars were blown into each other, one a window was blown out. Minor damage to 4 other homes. The Tornado rated EF1 with 100 mph max winds. Max width 100 yards and path length 1 mile.
3 Miles NNE Ellisville [Jones County] An EF1 at 10 Dec, 01:08 AM CST -- *** 2 injured *** numerous hardwood and softwood trees snapped and uprooted. Minor roof and siding damage to 1 home and an unoccupied building. Two outbuildings were damaged... a power pole was snapped high up and two signs were damaged. some of the trees were blown onto Interstate 59. Tornado rated EF1 with 95 mph max winds. Path length 1 mile and max path width 150 yards.
4 Miles SSW Prentiss [Jefferson Davis Co, MS] at 09 Dec, 11:24 PM CST -- rated EF1 with maximum estimated winds at 95 mph. Most of the damage was minor to moderate tree damage. An outbuilding was destroyed on Burrow Road with tin strewn dozens of yards downstream. One house on fate ward road suffered some roof damage. Path length was 2.7 miles and max width was 50 yards.
Below are snow totals from the Jackson, MS office of the NWS.
9" - New Hebron, Jeff Davis County
5" - Columbia, Marion County
5" - Kokomo, Marion County
5" - Jayees, Lawrence County
4.5" - Collins, Covington County
4" - Taylorsville, Smith County
4" - West Hattiesburg, Lamar County
4" - Prentiss, Jeff Davis County
3.5"- Mt. Olive, Covington County
2.5" - Bay Springs, Jasper County
2" - Purvis, Lamar County
1" - Ellisville, Jones County
.08-Hattiesburg, Forrest County
Hope you enjoyed it.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
From Jones County Emergency spokesman....Highway 11, North of Ellisville, trees and Power lines down. One person was injured.
In Hattiesburg we have had numerous calls of downed trees and a possible tornado there. However, the National Weather Service never detected rotation in the Hub City as a cell passed. I just spoke with Forrest County Emergency Management (@1:53am), and they say they have had reports of limbs down but no sign of a Tornado reported. At this point it sounds to me like some strong straight line winds... I passed the reports on the the NWS, and they can decide to investigate further.
Jasper County Emergency Management reports damage to a trailer roof, and a few limbs down.
The main line of storms will not likely clear all of the Pine Belt until around 3:00am.
But here is the catch, if we see snow in Mississippi, it will not be a widespread blanket of snow. It would more likely be a line of snow. In other words, it may snow in Jackson and Meridian, but not Hattiesburg and Laurel. Or the other way around? To predict an exact location at this point is nearly impossible. The slightest change in data could throw everything off.
So keep watching, or reading, and know that S*#W is a possibility. I'll reexamine the issue Tuesday evening.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Our in house model suggest that the squall line will pass over the Pine Belt between 10:00pm Tuesday and 3:00am Wednesday. However, it is very possible that we may see some super cells develop in front of the squall line earlier Tuesday.
We are monitoring the situation in the 7 on Your Side Weather Center, stay tuned for more information.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Friday, December 5, 2008
Temperatures will be our main concern this weekend as temps will stay below average for this time of year. In fact, this December has already started off to be a cool and wet month so far.
Wet conditions will come back into play next week. In fact, Tuesday could potentially be a day of heavy rain. A strong Low Pressure system will sink into the the Mississippi River Valley and create an ample amount of instability throughout the Southeast. The ECMWF model actually has this setup lasting through Thursday. So could rain exist for a majority of our week?
I am also considering a thunderstorm event on Tuesday. A moderate amount of lift, instability, and moisture will be available for heavy rain and thunderstorms. The severe weather threat seems low at this point, but the potential for wind and hail is my first concern for next Tuesday.
Thanks for reading through our blog today!
Thursday, December 4, 2008
The cold air, accompanied by wind, is what the future holds, and it's coming in strong from the NW. Overnight, expect temps to drop into the lower 30's and winds to blow around 10-15 mph.
Tomorrow it will be a prettier day, but still cool with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Here in Eastabuchie: 0.57"
Grubbs Ford in Columbia: 0.57"
Pine Belt Airport: 0.60"
Bobby Chain (Hattiesburg): 0.54"
Jackson, MS: 1.03"
Bad news: you might have to walk outside in the rain this morning
Good news: The rain is moving through relatively quickly.
The front is pushing through quickly as we see the rain totals nearing between 0.5" to 1.0". My biggest story is rain in this morning, but our weather will be clearing out as the day progresses. By this evening, some of our western counties (Walthall, Marion, Jefferson Davis, Covington, and Smith) might actually see a beautiful sunset. Some low level clouds could still be hanging around for the rest of the viewing area. Temps won't be warm at all. Our high for the next few days tops out in the mid-50s.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Once the front pushes through expect much cooler air on the other side. Thursday nights low is 31!
Well honestly, the models aren't close enough for me at this time to really rely on a consensus. My thoughts make me think the system is a little slower than the GFS, and this would allow rainfall to begin in the early morning. I do expect things to be clearing by the time you go to sleep Thursday night. A few models like the SREF have moisture sticking around through the evening, but I do believe the main instability and lift mechanisms will be out of the picture.
As this is a streched shortwave system, I would suspect some clouds to stick around behind the main push of the front. Friday looks like a Mostly Sunny day.
Temps will drop off a bit behind the front. Cold Air advection, CAA, will bring in stable conditions with a big of a clearing. 850 temps look like last week's rainfall event, but the difference is the direction of the wind flow. Cold Air Advection hinders uplift and development of moisture, but last week we had a nice Warm Air Advection area bringing in a swatch of moisture.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Sunday, November 30, 2008
A viewer recently called me to see if we were going to get snow tonight because he heard we were. Before I talk about snow here in South Mississippi I must communicate my careful wording. In my mind, several people can easily translate the word "snow" into the roads and ground covered in white, puffy and beautiful, snow, and they might also run to the grocery store to "gear up" for staying inside for a few days. In other words, I'm careful to use the word snow, but I will gladly be using more descriptive words while making a snow forecast so listen carefully.
Tonight we will have below feezing temperatures 1,000 to 2,000 feet above the ground, which is usually enough distance from the ground to melt any snow/ice from falling. But wilder things can still happen. In this case, if we still have enough moisture in the air, we might see a snowflake (or we might get lucky with 2 snowflakes).
This event will not be something to write home about, but I feel like I need to share my thoughts on this as many people have been discussing this lately.
Overall, we will be experiencing very cold upper-level temperatures through Tuesday night. Mondays high will be tough to roll above 50F, and temps will drop to the upper 20s Tuesday night.
Thanks for reading! Please email me your comments! And maybe go ahead and run to the store and get some hot chocolate anyway...it is going to be chilly. Hopefully you will see "the" snowflake fall.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
I love weather.
I love the rainfall.
In our ever-changing weather pattern, things in our weather department never get old. A new day of work means a new day of weather and patterns to study and forecast. Our rainfall here in the last 36 hours has brought many of us back up to our average mark of rainfall for the whole month of November. No a hurricane did not pass through South Mississippi, but a wet and juicy stationary front claimed residence in our district. This stationary boundary has now moved out of the way, but we still have a couple of cold fronts to push on through. In fact, we could see our coldest High temperature since Jan. '08 this upcoming Monday. Our records at the station show we haven't seen a high of 48 since this past January. My forecast for Monday...48.
Feel free to email me your thoughts at firstname.lastname@example.org
Friday, November 28, 2008
If you have watched this mornings newscast, you've noticed the radar imagine this morning has produced a long line of rain along the I-20 corridor. This is all due to a stationary boundary bringing plenty of moisture and colliding with a moderate upper-level jet streak.
I'll be keeping track of rain totals as we continue to experience a rainy 48 hours (or more).
Thursday, November 27, 2008
A boundary will sit down over Central Mississippi through Saturday night. This will aid in delivering our rain through Friday because the boundary will continue to pump moisture in South Mississippi. The mix of the moisture and upper level jet will allow enough available lift to create the forecast showers.
On Sunday, I expect a large cold front to push the stationary boundary southward and give way to very chilly temperatures. The GFS is still forecasting -10C 850mb temps, which is the coldest of the Fall season, but the European model is persistently producing only -4C 850 temps. In the end, Monday could be coldest day we have experienced this season.
Enjoy your thanksgiving!
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Let me tell you the GFS has propragated the cold canadian air farther south than the "ole faithful" European model. This is normal for the GFS to bring cold air too far south so I don't expect anything worthy of discussing, but the upper level air will definitely be cooling down to -4C.
I expect the rain to impact our region starting Thursday evening and ending Friday night. Some showers might linger around Saturday morning, but the majority of the rain seems to be a Friday event. Amounts should only total less than 0.25".
Monday, November 17, 2008
Today we will experience a small increase in moisture, which will allow our afternoon temps to reach the mid-60s. A cold front will also be quietly moving southward throughout the magnolia state throughout the day, but our conditions will remain beautiful. Tuesday will hold the main effects of the Cold front as our high temp will barely touch the upper 50s.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Eta: The majority of the rain on Wednesday will be found NW of us in the Pine Belt Region. Between Wednesday and Thurdsay, South Mississippi seems to only have a light amount of rain.
GFS: South Mississippi holds the majority of the rain from now till Friday morning. Although the total rain amount is less than Eta.
WRF: (12Z; old data) This model also agrees with the most recent run of Eta. The majority of the rain will be found NW of the PIB, but we will still experience a light to moderate amount through Thursday night.
The Eta and GFS obviously have some differences, but the Eta is back to it's normal bias. Eta is usually the model to over-exaggerate the total amount of rain. Although the Eta seems to match up better with the analysis of the current sfc map, and the GFS has been too short on extending the rain in North Mississippi today.
Rain is in the forecast, but I can't go as high of a percentage as NWS at 100% tomorrow (wednesday). I think we will see rain, but only on the light end (less than 0.25"). I also think the rain will be a little more scattered than most people are expecting.
But you must know some of us might have the opportunity to see more than 0.25" in a moderate event.
Feel free to keep track of the rain on Wednesday and Thursday from our Interactive Radar on the Weather Page drop down menu. It is an excellent resource during rain events.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Tuesday night could see a boundary cut through our viewing area from the NW and progressing in the east and southeastern regions. Wednesday will also see a similar pattern during the day, but Thursday ( 5 days out) seems like a more challenging forecast. I'm focused mainly on the Tuesday/Wednesday event this evening. Thursday will have the chance to package in some more rain as a major trough builds in the center of the country.
Overall you might catch yourself in a localized heavy rainfall, but the majority of the pine belt region I wouldn't expect a large amount of rain. On my scale, I am going with the pine belt receiving a light amount of rain with only a few areas seeing a moderate amount.
Friday we shoud see conditions clearing as the day progresses. Friday night and the weekend should be a cool couple of days and nights. I'm barely putting a high temperature in the 60s with 61,60, respectively for the weekend. My reason, I expect 850 temps to be below freezing by mid-day Saturday.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Instability will be light in South Mississippi by the time the front moves into our region. WRF and SREF models show me a lack in CAPE and Shear by late Thursday night and into Friday morning. The moisture will be around as tomorrow we expect to see dewpoints in the upper 50s and maybe around the 60 degree mark.
As the majority of the mechanisms will be light in our area, my forecast for rain is on the lighter end, but I wouldn't be surprised to see our Western Counties of Jeff'Davis, Smith, Simpson, and even Covington, catching a moderate amount of rain between 0.25" and 1.00". As the front moves eastward across the PIB, I expect the rain totals to decrease. This will be partially due to the lack of instability in the overnight hours.
Right now SPC only shows a slight risk for portions of West MS and a majority of LA. I don't expect anything severe for our area, but the possibility is always in the front of our minds here in the weather center.
Thanks for reading with us today!
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
A couple of things...
"The Tanner Cade Hour minus 55 minutes or so" is a new show I am producing for our website. This show will be updated every Wednesday afternoon. Please feel free to take a few minutes at your desk Wednesday afternoon to watch the new show!
Feel free to email me your weather questions at email@example.com
Thanks for keeping up with us here on the blog and here at wdam.com
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Our forecast exist without a major change until Thursday. Monday to Wednesday will package a slow increase in temperature and moisture. The GFS shows me a 12C 850mb temperature for Wednesday, which is the warmest 850 temp we have seen within the last 7 days.
Tuesday and Wednesday I see us reaching temps a few degrees above normal into the upper 70s, but a moderate cold front will move in late Thursday to change our weather scene. Models have slowed down a bit on the advancement of this cold front on Thursday, but I am still expecting the rain chances to be Thursday PM to a Friday AM event. Although Thursday's high temperature is tricky to forecast right now with the low confidence on when the pre-frontal clouds will move into our region. I'm expecting us to reach a temp in the mid-70s, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this number change a tad between now and then.
Friday's temps are on the low confidence side without a strong model agreement. European shows me 850mb temps at 6C but GFS (which is generally a little too cold) shows me 850 temps at the freezing mark.
Most of the models show the trough moving more NE by Thursday, which will take some of the vorticity and energy North of us. But the 5 day Severe Outlook has the Lower MS River Valley in the window for a little activity (mainly thunderstorms). CAPE and Shear are all very low at this point so I don't expect a severe event. The main rain will end up be more on the light end of the scale with some people catching some moderate amounts of rain.
In the end, another beautiful weekend ahead.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Our next big weather changer looks to be developing in the NW over the weekend. By Monday/Tuesday a well definied trough will be digging across the Rockies, and our impact from this trough should be around Thursday and little into Friday. We are still pretty far out to talk seriously on the timing of this trough, and even the depth of the trough into our region seems very early to nail down anything solid. A few models have shown me only a light shower event, but I must still be aware of the possibility for more of a moderate rainfall event. The one thing we must remember as we enter into the "cool months" is the amount of energy we need for uplift (rain) events. We experience more stable atmospheres in the winter months so we need more vertical uplift and vorticity to to spur on credible rain forecast. All this can be compared to the summer, when our incredible unstable atmosphere only needs a little vorticity and UVVs to create a rain event.
Enjoy your weekend! Be sure to enjoy the beautiful clear nights!
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
The weather scene is perfect for what we call radiational cooling, but let me first explain what hinders radiational cooling. During the day the ground heats up from absorbing the shortwave radiation from the sun, but the ground doesn't gain any energy once the sun sets. At night the ground emits longwave radiation (energy), but clouds aid in keeping the heat (energy) in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This event will allow the night-time temperature to level-off as oppossed to decreasing dramatically. Now our forecast tonight doesn't involve clouds so nothing will hold back the energy removed from the ground. The clear skies will allow the energy to lost from the low levels of the atmosphere.
Also, high winds will cause the lower level temperature to remain in the lower level. Think of this as a big mixing bowl. The ground's temperature won't be able to leave the lower levels as effieciently as calm winds. Calm winds act as a quick escape for the ground's energy. Our forecast tonight include calm winds.
So tonight will be cold. Break out the winter quilts and turn on the heater because tonight we will experience textbook longwave radiational cooling.
****Also, tomorrow premiers the 1st episode of "The Tanner Cade Hour minus 55 minutes or so" on www.wdam.com. This is my show for a once-a-week episodes (web only).
Saturday, October 25, 2008
On to the forecast:
My thoughts going into our forecast hinge on one factor: another cold front. Yes, we have another cold front already brewing in the Northern Plains. This front will bring us more of a true "Canadian" air mass into the lower MS River Valley, but we will be warming tomorrow ahead of the front.
Right now we have a 1020mb high over the ARLaMiss (just to our west), but this high will quietly move a little south by mid-day tomorrow and bring in a slight push of moisture from the west. The increase in moisture and 850 temps to 12°C will allow us to see temps in the upper 70s across South Mississippi. Although things will continue to change as we move through the day tomorrow. Our biggest change will be ramming down the whole Eastern Corridor of the nation. We, however, will be located in the NVA (negative vorticity advection) zone of the cold front. This really means we will find ourselves on the "left side" of the trough where the convergence and lift are not available for rainfall activity (or even cumulus clouds). Also dewpoint temps will really crash into the upper 20s on Monday Night. Another interesting note should be made about the 1035mb High settling in over the Southern Plains by Tuesday.
So what do I see from this? The front will move through late Sunday night and into early Monday morning, which allows monday afternoons temps to struggle getting into the mid-60s. Most of Miss. will see lower 60s and upper 50s. Basically, our air will be nearly "bone" dry Monday night allowing excellent longwave radiational cooling. Right now I have a forecast low of 36 but you wouldn't have to pull my arm to hard to drop in the lower 30s. Now I must also realize that several folks in our state will potentially see their first frost of the year during this episode.
After Monday things will still be mild. Tuesday looks to be very similar to Monday's forecast, but things will slowly become more "mild" by the middle of the week. Wednesday highs will be the upper 60s before the late-week highs jumping into the lower 70s for Thursday/Friday.
Monday, October 20, 2008
I know it might be hard to tell from this picture, but the GFS shows the rain starting Thursday morning.
One more note, this pattern in October is defines one reason why I love weather. I simply love the change of weather from warm and cloudy to cool and clear. My feelings on this probably begin because I enjoy not being able to habitually love and experience one weather scene. Right now I love the fall, but in the spring I will tell you I love the spring.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
My forecast has this inverted trough moving out of the way by early Tuesday morning, which will allow more sunshine on Tuesday and Wednesday. The next big weather factor comes into our forecast on Thurdsay/Friday as we will begin to see the influence of a cold front. This front shouldn't cause to much rain, but temps will decrease a little bit.
By Saturday and into the next week I expect a major Ridge/Trough pattern to lace itself across the nation. With a ridge developed over the Western U.S. we will see the impact of a Trough sitting/stalling in the Eastern Conus of the U.States. For us we will experience cooler temps and only a small chance of rain through next week.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
And for the remainder of the week our fair weather friend, a high pressure system, moves into the Southeast US. This is good news for those wanting to enjoy a weekend outside. Although our temperatures will definitely be more seasonable by Friday with highs in the lower 80s and up to about 84/85.
My eye is caught on our next major front. The GFS, which often moves fronts too far south too quickly, has backed off a bit on the intensity for us, but we will see some influence of this front by Sunday or Monday. More moisture will be able to filter back into Mississippi by Sunday. After we see an increase in moisture I'll be waiting around for the front to move through. Right now the European Model shows 850 temps starting to lower by Wednesday morning, but the Canadian Model's spaghetti plot isn't very confident in the exact placement of the trough by Mid-week. Tuesday through Thursday seems to be my range of days for my forecast of frontal movement, but many things are still "up in the air."
Right now my best guess looks more at the European with a Wednesday influence of the front, and rainfall will probably fall along the same day. No matter what actually happens, I'm banking on a front moving through the Pine Belt by Thursday afternoon.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Pine Belt Regional: 0.20"
Bobby L. Chain (Hatt.): **0.01"(not quality controlled)
Jackson Int. Airport: 0.23"
McComb Pike County: 0.03"
Meridian Key Field: 0.59"
Pascagoula (Lott Int. Arp): 0.02"
Gulport-Biloxi Arpt: 0.46"
Hammond, LA: 0.12"
Monday, October 6, 2008
Thursday, September 25, 2008
We haven't seen temperatures this low since May 17th, but I know we can all handle the cool mornings as we finish the first week of Fall.
One reason we are experiencing the cool low temperatures is due to the Low pressure system over the Carolinas. This Low is swinging NE'sterly wind down the App. Mountain Range, which really dries out our air. The dry air and clear skies allow plenty of longwave radiation, which can remove plenty of energy from the surface.
We could see Dewpoint Temps in the upper 40s, which is certainly a major change from our normal in the 60s.
Enjoy the nice weather!
Sunday, September 21, 2008
This high located to our NE will allow us to have mainly an east wind, but not until Thursday night could we see our driest conditions. Even though we will have clear skies, which helps remove longwave radiation (solar radiation) from the ground, we will still have dewpoint temps in the lower 60s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will help keep our Low around 63 Monday night, but by Thursday Dewpoint temps could easily be in the 50s. Ironically, as soon as we see our driest conditions we could start to see more moisture from the baroclinic low forming over the carolinas. This low can do several things, but the GFS shows us a westward movement over AL/GA by Friday. This low will be a challenge because I will also be studying the relation of a new tropical wave (possible Tropical Storm Kyle) by late this week. This tropical wave is expected to move North from it's current position over Puerto Rico.
We will talk more about the late week forecast tomorrow and Tuesday.
Friday, September 19, 2008
In this forecast it would be a foolish thing to say it will rain at your football stadium tonight. Although I can tell you there is a 50% chance someone in the Pine Belt will see rain this afternoon and night. Moisture is a major part of my decision in our forecast. This morning will still have a lot of dry air in the mid-levels, which will actually evaporate any moisture before touching the ground. This dry air is also inhibiting the creation of more showers across our region. I actually watched a "dryish" line run into a "moist-ish" line this morning, which allowed light showers to build into Jefferson Davis County and Covington County (for a lack of better words). Now the small line has formed a little more southerly into Louisiana.
I do expect some moisture from our SW and the Gulf to filter into our region throughout the day today. In fact, most of the day we will be under the reign of a cloud deck. This will also keep our temps down to below the 80 degree mark, but some of us in the southern counties might spot 80 or 81. The majority of us will be below 80. The cool temps will also continue into the weekend with cloud cover and capping a high temperature below average. Upper 70s is my forecast through Sunday, but Sunday's high could change a little as we see what is going to playout tonight and Saturday. MOS and many models aren't agreeing on their precip forecast, but models are agreeing on the Low Level Jet entering our region.
A shortwave will be sticking around us for the weekend, but the first day of Fall will bring us the entrance of another High pressure system. I expect clearer skies to start off the first full week of Fall.
Have a good Friday!
Monday, September 15, 2008
Late today we finally experienced the effects of the cool and dry air mass behind the front. I know many parents and fans are having a great time watching football games throughout our region tonight. During my dinner break I was able to see the local football field in Petal turning the lights on for a game under the lights. Of course, these next few nights are a great time to enjoy outdoor activities with friends and family. For our weather, this is a great pattern change after multiple tropical events.
Most models have us controlled by a high pressure system through Wednesday. By Thursday, the High begins to move out of reach as we might begin to see a chance of showers throughout the weekend.
I am expecting many of us to see a low temperature in the 50s at some point during this week. Although our southern counties might struggle to drop below the 60 degree mark.
During this time of beautiful weather please feel free to email me your pictures, thoughts, and questions. If qualified, I know I will show the best "beautiful weather" picture on-air by this weekend. I will be out of the office through Wednesday, but I will definitely be checking my email. As for now, I will see you bright and early Thursday and Friday while I fill-in for Mr. Rex Thompson.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Pike County McComb: 1.30"
Jackson, MS: 0.58"
Bobby Chain Airport: 0.24"
Meridian-Key Field: 0.49"
The Pine Belt Regional Airport wasn't reporting any rain, and I think our rain gauge here at the station needs to be checked. I know we received more than 0.01" here.
Now the scenario outside reflects a warm, cloudy, fall night. The cold front is laced across the Pine Belt region right now, but things will slowly change as we move throughout the day tomorrow. But some models are still holding onto some light showers tomorrow afternoon. With precip, the raw NAM has shown me great production with this event, and the same model also shows no rain for Monday. So I really want to lean to a lack of rain for tomorrow, and the abundance of clouds for most of the day will maintain stability. I am not expecting a lot of sunshine tomorrow, but I might look for some showers if we receive some sun rays through the exiting Stratus cloud deck.
My question for you...When will these lovebugs leave? I must apologize because I have never experienced these bugs in such abundance. My car isn't a fan of these guys.
I am hoping to see a few bugs leave town when our winds shift in a post-frontal event.
After looking at the radar loop, I am watching the line of showers break down a tad. In fact, the system is sitting down a bit. I mean the whole line is starting to become less intense but broadening. Although...I do expect most of the precip to be out of the Pine Belt between 10p-Midnight.
I'll come back with another update later....
Saturday, September 13, 2008
I'm tempted to raise my POPs (probability of precipitation) for Sunday, but I am feeling rather comfortable with 40%. My concern for avoiding a high probability is related to the warm and drier air aloft. This air has helped us see less convection across the region today and I believe we will still have some leftover pieces tomorrow night.
My big weather story starts on Tuesday. Everyone and anything is agreeing on dry air and North wind starting on Monday afternoon/night. After the front moves through our region Monday morning we will quickly begin to feel the wind shift to the North. This North wind will remove us from the moist influence of the Gulf and open our airways to dry continental air. I expect this pattern to last throughout the remainder of the week. For me, this is a difficult choice to keep this pattern through the week, but I feel this is the pattern we must be experiencing as we roll into the transition from Summer to Fall. I am not saying we won't see another warm spell again, but I do believe we will maintain our below average temperatures for the next few weeks. (At least it is definitely a possibility)
Thanks to all of you! I hope you have a great weekend! Please feel free to email...
Friday, September 12, 2008
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Here in the Pine Belt we have a slight chance of seeing some isolated showers on Thursday and Friday afternoon, but the best shot of rain should come in to play along the southern portion in Pearl River, Stone, and George County.
The image at the top shows the latest model runs still leaning to a Corpus Christi. I feel like I must address the lonely model (in orange) tracking the storm North through Mobile. This is the CLPS model, which is only based on statistics. So from past statistics Tropical Activity usually travels northward. Since hurricanes never follow their "normal" path, this model is very rarely correct.
For intensity: Most models show a landfall between a Cat 3 and low end Cat 4. This could easily happen as many variables are in line for Ike to be a very strong storm.
In the wake of a strong hurricane hitting Texas, I have been able to review some of the past strong hurricanes in Texas history. A few to talk about...
Ike has a very simliar journey as a hurricane in 1919. This storm hit just south of Corpus Christi and killed nearly 1000 people including about 700 in sea vessels. In 1961 Hurricane Carla hit Texas with max winds of 150mph and a pressure of 931mb. Only 46 lives were lost because of the early preparations. Also, Hurricane Allen hit Brownsville, Texas, in 1980 after reaching an extremely low pressure of 899mb.
Many of Texas' most powerful hurricanes made landfall within the first two weeks of September, which just happens to be the similar time period of Ike.
Landfall is expected very early Saturday morning. This could very well be the time when we are all hoping Texas residents are safe and sound.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Monday, September 8, 2008
Sunday, September 7, 2008
The latest model runs continue to show a similar forecast to yesterday's output. In fact, if we look at the model runs within the last 48 hours, we can see the models have slowly shifted more west towards TX. Although earlier today the HWRF was still showing a MS Coast landfall, but the last update shows a very similar track as Gustav with a SW Louisiana track.
I previously talked about my concerns with the ridge breaking down earlier than the models anticipate, and I still have a slight concern with the models forecast of the future front. Although my concern is now looking at a track into the middle of the TX coast or SW Louisiana. The break down of the ridge seems to be lagging, which will allow Ike to move into the Western Gulf, but an early break down will allow a SW Louisiana landfall.
Even though I talk about a long westward track, I must still recognize the chance of Ike moving northward into the AL/FL coast. Many forecasters are still up in the air at this point.
Ike is losing strength as I type. The influence of Ike's movement over Cuba is diminshing the overall strength of the storm. In fact, Ike is expected by many to become a Cat 1 after moving past Cuba by mid-day Tuesday. Once entering the Gulf, models show intensification reaching a Cat 3 by Thursday and at landfall. The Shear and SST (Sea Surface Temperature) is prime for strengthening in the Gulf. Only 10 to 15kts wind shear is forecast for the Gulf.
Thanks for checking in! Hope you have a good week!
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Anyway, the models are now showing something interesting. If you remember me discussing earlier, a major player in directing Ike within the Eastern Gulf is the influence of the trough moving across the country by mid-week. Well now the major global models like GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and European show a western track simliar to the path of Edouard by skimming along the Gulf Coast line and heading into Texas. This new model run is very reflective to the timing of the front, trough, moving through the country. Models have now slowed the progression of the trough, which allow the Ridge, high, maintain longer control on Ike's westward movement. This is a huge note to make. The timing of the trough is a serious forecasting assesment for the future track of Ike. As long as the high pressure system is established over the Northeast US the movement of Ike will be westward, but the forecast front will quickly break down the High.
For instance, if the front moves through the Central Plains on Wednesday, then we should expect Ike to make landfall between the FL Panhandle and New Orleans. But if the front is slower in progression then we could see Ike follow a West track toward a Western Gulf landfall by late next weekend or around Sept. 15.
A big situation has arisen in forecasting offices throughout the Gulf. All news stations along the Gulf from TX to FL will be keeping a good eye on Ike.
On another note...
The forecast for tomorrow, Sunday, is beautiful. In fact, the next few days seem to be filled with a pleasant "summertime" flow. We will see a good chunk of sunshine, but we might also start seeing those popup afternoon thunderstorms by the middle of the week. The forecast of Ike definitely influences our late-week forecast.
Thanks for stopping in tonight! Have a good Sunday!
As for now, I'm sure you have already been told about our new friend "Ike". At the 4pm update he has now strengthened to 135 mph, which makes it a Category 4. This intensification is clearly connected to a low shear value of 20kts and, of course, the movement into warmer water. The next 24 hours could see even more intensification, but the biggest story will be the land interference of Cuba. Cuba, once again, has claimed prime real estate to diminish the intensity of Hurricane Ike, but the amount of loss Ike will lose from land interference is a little uncertain. The 2nd biggest story is the models continuation to push Ike westward into the center of the Gulf.
I feel certain about a Gulf entry for Ike, but I am not completely sold on a similar location as Gustav. Gustav ran right through the middle of the Gulf in a NW fashion, but my early thoughts keep Ike on the Eastern side of the Gulf. I'm basing this thought on the models showing a trough pushing through the nation Tuesday through Thursday. This front will break down the ridge and allow Ike to make a Northern turn into a region of lower, or weaker, pressure. Without a strong push from a solid ridge I am not comfortable forecasting a "Center of the Gulf" forecast for Ike. Remember, hurricanes will always take the path of least resistance. The path of least resistance is always found away from a ridge, or high pressure. Ike's westward movement will be hard to continue without the influence of a ridge as forecast by mid-week. Fronts break down ridges. My early thoughts on landfall look at the Tallahassee through New Orleans coastline.
Although please remember many things can still mix up this forecast. Several factors are waiting to be nailed down after Ike makes landfall on Cuba. Ike is a threat to the Gulf Coast region, but Cuba will definitely have severe destruction.
I will update you more later.
Please feel free to email me your thoughts firstname.lastname@example.org
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Laurel/Hatt Airport: 3.94"
Bobby Chain Airport (hattiesburg): 6.26"
McComb topping 7" and Hattiesburg topping 6" is really incredible. Of course we will see some more rainfall for the Hattiesburg area and Jackson/McComb area.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
I will update the Blog Tuesday afternoon/evening with new information. Thank you