Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Frosty Noise Makers

It looks like we will see almost freezing temps as we say goodbye to 2008. I expect air temperature to be about 35 degrees at midnight with the wind chill as low as 30 degrees. New Years Day should be pretty uneventful and will feel much like today.

Friday I expect a chance of light rain, but we may have a stormy Saturday as another boundary pushes through, so stay tuned.

-Nick Ortego

Happy New Years Eve Everyone!!!

A cold front will sweep through the Pine Belt later this morning and will result in much windier and cooler weather today. We are forecasting high in the 50s with northerly winds at 10-20. Tonight should be picture perfect to bring in the new year with temps at midnight in the 30s under clear skies. The first day of the new year also promises to be sunny and cool with highs again in the 50s. Have a safe and happy New Year!!!!!! Rex

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Clouds but No rain

You might have noticed the clouds entering from our West this afternoon/evening, but the clouds won't usher in rainfall. We have found ourselves in a nice dry air mass, and this will keep any showers from really forming. There is also a lack of upper level energy to produce any rain. Another Cold Front is also on our doorstep to the Northwest. This cold front will push through tonight and tomorrow morning to give us an afternoon temperature only in the mid-50s. This will set us up for a nice and cold New Year's Eve Night. Temps around midnight will be in the mid-30's, but the overnight low will fall into the upper 20's. After New Year's Day our weather forecast becomes rather tricky. Although most models are agreeing on a weather pattern changer, I still think the exact timing on different frontal passages is difficult. This change will take us from the zonal pattern into a baroclinic pattern. This will allow a few disturbances to enter into the Southeast over the weekend an into the start of next week. Have a good night and enjoy the Waxing Crescent Moon!

Great day weatherwise !!!

A very nice and sunny day is forecast for the Pine Belt with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Clear skies are forecast tonight with lows in the lower 40s. For New Years Eve day cooler weather is on tap with highs in the 50s. The weather for New Years Eve night is almost picture perfect with clear skies and temps in the 30s. Happy New Year! rex

Monday, December 29, 2008

December Sun

A lot of clear weather consumes our forecast going through tonight and into Wednesday, but I think many of us can really manage to enjoy the sunshine. After all, we haven't seen Clear skies since at least December 22. Feel free to watch my forecast tonight as I was able to catch a beautiful sunset from our Grubbs Ford skycam in Columbia. I know it's December, but I think I miss the nice summer sunsets that usually always occur here in South Mississippi. Expect clear and calm conditions to help bring our temp down to the near freezing mark tonight. We are already at 38 here in Eastabuchie! Bring out the blankets and turn on the heat because we can finally get back to experiencing nice seasonable temps. Why are we seeing this? Well after the front moved through yesterday we have a 1027mb High sitting to our Northwest, this is our weather stablizer for the near future. Although I'm looking for the High to spin Eastward and stir up a slight increase in moisture tomorrow, which will allow temps to climb into the upper 60's tomorrow afternoon. Enjoy the night and always feel free to send me your weather photos/comments at Goodnight!

Online Images

We apologize about the current problem with our Current Temperature Graphic and our Radar Image. We are currently working on getting these problems fixed. In the meantime, enjoy this wonderful sunny day!

Clearing skies today!!

Skies are forecast to gradually clear today with highs in the low 60s. Clear and chilly weather is on tap for tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s. The weather is expected to cooperate for New Years Eve night with clear skies and chilly temps! Lows are forecast to be around 31 on New Years Day morning. Happy New Year!!! Rex

Sunday, December 28, 2008

The Rain Came

Well it has rained almost all day in Hattiesburg/Laurel. Total Event Rain totals so far as of 8:30pm: WDAMTV=0.83", PIB = 0.77", Jackson = 0.81", Meridian = 0.48", McComb = 1.06", Gulfport = 0.04". You can see where the rain hasn't been...Gulfport. Today we have seen the Cold Front turn into a stationary boundary over the I-59 Corridor, and Gulfport definitely has a rare case of only 0.04" so far. I expect the coast will see a little more rain later in the night, but not nearly close to the Hatt/Laurel totals. Also, Temps have dropped the expected 15-20 degrees from this time yesterday. We are finally back to more normal temps for this time of year. Expect a couple of mild days ahead of us, but rain chances coming late in the week. The last two model runs indicate WAA, warm air advection, coming into play late on New Years day. This will allow some showers to break out, and Friday will follow through with another cold front. But please don't miss the sunshine Monday afternoon and into Tuesday. Things will finally clear up these next few days as an enjoyable 1028mb High Pressure system will build into Mississippi. Have a great week! And make sure to check back here for your local Pine Belt New Years Day Forecast!

Saturday, December 27, 2008

5-Point Discussion

We have a lot to discuss...lets get down to it. First of all, temps right now are ridiculous. Our low last night was 68. Jackson has already blown it's record high by 3 degrees (they're at 80 now), but I'm pretty sure our temp of 77 is still shy of a record. It's December 27th folks! Second, will we have severe weather tonight? I highly doubt we see any severe activity with tonights frontal passage. Most of the true dynamics and severe indices will follow the Northeastward moving Low through Memphis and the Ohio River Valley. I expect to see light to moderate rain here in the Pine Belt in the middle of the night, and we might have some stray showers bounce through South Mississippi Sunday night. Third, temps will become more mild to start our work week as the National Weather scene becomes more zonal (or no major troughs or ridges). Fourth, when will we see rain again? I expect another disturbance by the end of the week. This means we could see some light showers on New Years Day and into Friday. This will be due to a strong Polar cold front dipping south through the center of the country. Fifth, when will we see cold temps again? I have good news if you like colder temperatures. My long range models point towards colder temps as we move into January. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Artic Oscillation both show the capability of cold air seeping into the Eastern Corridor of the Country. The Artic Oscillation shows a rapid negative trend which will allow the cold air to enter into our region. Okay those were the five points I was itching to discuss with you about. Now you will have to watch my 6pm and 10pm newscast for even more information on your local Pine Belt Forecast. Have a good night! -Tanner Cade

Friday, December 26, 2008

Rain is coming

No we didn't set a record High today, but we definitely were a few degrees below our record of 81. Pine Belt Airport saw 77 today and we recorded 76 early this afternoon in Eastabuchie. Tomorrow will be another warm day with winds gusting into the 20mph range. As you may know, a cold front will be making it's way across the South on Saturday, but we won't see the main rainfall until early early Sunday morning. I'm very glad the GFS forecast model finally slowed down to match the other NAM/WRF/ and European models. Sunday morning seems like a sure bet, but some lingering showers could stick around for Sunday night. Afterwards our temps will be dropping off to more "normal" levels. So far New Years Eve looks like the next best shot of rain with a 40% chance of showers, but New Years day still looks like partly cloudy conditions with only a slight chance of showers.

Warmer weather on tap early part of weekend!

Expect mostly cloudy conditons thru most of the weekend. We have a very slight chance of a shower today but our best chances for rain and thunderstorms will be late Saturday into early Sunday a as cold front sweeps through. Highs today and Saturday are expected to be in the upper 70s and then fall to the lower 60s on Sunday. At this point there appears to be a good chance that a cool New Years Eve night is at hand and you may need a sweater or light coat to bring in the New Year. Happy Holidays! Rex

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Merry Christmas

Of course a cloudy Christmas day for much of us in South Mississippi. Fortunately a majority of the rain this morning only skirted along our northern counties around I-20, but now we find ourselves in warm conditions. The boundary moving northward through our area is a warm front, which is allowing us to maintain these warm temps. Our lows are certainly well above normal. Our normal high/low for Christmas Day is 61/37 but we just experienced a very warm day at 68/57. Althought tomorrow we trump today's high by possibly 10 degrees. The trickest part tomorrow will be determining the cloud cover. If we maintain low-level clouds throughout the whole day then I expect our temps to be in the mid-70s, but if we see a small gap in the clouds we could easily crawl into the upper 70's. My forecast reflects a forecast full of clouds. What about our next cold front? The models have a wide range on the exact timing of the rain Saturday night, but I am going to keep my wording on "saturday night". The forecast becomes very difficult 2 days out when I try to pin-point to viewers whether it's 10pm or 2am. What about severe weather? Well the majority of the severe weather should be to our Northwest and North. By the time the rain makes it to the Pine Belt, we shouldn't see high indices for severe activity. Although I must leave room for a little thunder and lightning. As for now, take care and enjoy this wondeful Christmas Night! God Bless!

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Christmas Weather

After an intriguing afternoon weather scene, I am now watching the area for scattered shows in the wake of a frontal movement. A cold front will be moving through Hattiesburg/Laurel at about midnight, but the term "cold" must be used loosely as temps will still be relatively warm. A stationary boundary will sit over South Mississippi for the majority of our Christmas Day, which makes for a cloudy forecast and a touch of scattered showers. The location of the showers is a tough forecast to make, but I can narrow down the area to South of I-20. Although I bet most showers will be bringing us light amounts of rain. Expect Christmas Day temps to top out in the upper 60's. Friday will definitely be a warm day in the upper 70's under partly cloudy conditions. Another cold front will be pushing through on Saturday. Early thoughts lead me to the "main event' impacting us on Saturday night. Now things are a little early to tell the exact intensity of the rain, but I must caution the chance of thunderstorms as instability indexes are above normal for saturday night. As for now, I hope you have a wonderful and Merry Christmas! God Bless!

Tornado Warning

If you have just watched my weathercast on the 5pm newscast, you heard me talk about the current tornado warning in Perry County. The warning is set to expire at 5:30pm, but I would go ahead and say the specific storm seems to be diminishing in strength. The tornado warning was issued because radar indicated the possibility of a tornado, but no actual tornado has been reported as of yet. Yes it is Christmas Eve but we are still working diligently in the weather center. Stay tuned to our weather page and newcast for more updates throughout the night.

Afternoon Hail

I'm watching some scattered showers/thunderstorms roll through the Pine Belt this afternoon, and one cell in central Lamar county seems to have the potential for dime-sized hail. This small cell is moving East at about 30mph. At 3pm the Cell is a few miles north of Purvis. I expected the cell to be south of hattiesburg by 3:10pm and just into North/Central Perry County by 3:22pm. More scattered cells are running through South Mississippi this afternoon, but please be aware of the potential for isolated high winds and hail. This is all due to the effects of a front moving through our region late tonight. Stay tuned for more details. Tanner Cade

Will Santa need an umbrella tonight?

Most likely!! Showers and thunderstorms are likely here in the Pine Belt until around midnight. Todays high will be in the mid 70s. Look for cloudy skies to remain with us through Christmas Day, however shower chances are rather slim on Christmas Day with highs in the upper 60s. Looking ahead to New Years Eve. Weather models are now disagreeing on what type of weather to expect. One of the most reliable models, the GFS, thinks that we will see much colder weather on New Years Eve while other models keep us warm with a chance of rain. We will have to wait and see!! I kinda hoping the GFS is right!!!!! Happy Holidays everyone and please drive safe!!! Rex

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Quick weather update!!

We have a made a few changes to our forecast from earlier this morning as new data has come in. Although we are now forecasting a high of 59 today, temps will gradually rise overnight reaching the mid 60s by dawn on Christmas Eve. Showers and windy conditions are likely overnight as well. The good news!!! Shower chances have been lowered to around 30% on Christmas Day with a high in the mid to upper 60s. Cooler weather is still expected for the weekend with lows in the 40s Saturday night and in the upper 30s Sunday night. Also we will monitor the possibility of some strong thunderstorms with the frontal passage Saturday night. Happy Holidays!!! Rex

Cloudy, windy and milder today.

After a very chilly Monday expect today to be a little warmer with highs in the low 60s. Windy conditions are expected today and tonight. Cloudy skies are still in the forecast for Christmas Eve and for Christmas with a chance for showers both days. We may see some cooler weather by the weekend. Rex

Monday, December 22, 2008

A Wet not White Christmas

It's looking like the Pine Belt will have a stalled boundary right on top of us from Christmas Eve through the 26th. This will result in rainy days and mild temperatures for the holidays. The 24th may contain some stormy weather.

Tonight (Monday) will be another cold one. Fortunately mostly cloudy skies will help keep us from setting records... I think we will get down to about 29 degrees.

Merry Christmas
-Nick Ortego

Chilly today but a big warm up on the way!

Today promises to be quite chilly here in the Pine Belt with a high of 43 expected. Clouds will be on the increase tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s. At this time our holiday week doesn't look very promising weather wise as a big warm up is forecast as well as increasing chances for rain. Highs on Christmas are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s with a chance for showers. Hopefully this forecast will change! Happy Holiday! Rex

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Showers Precede Cold Weather

Late tonight (Saturday) a line of showers is expected to move through the Pine Belt. While they may contain some lightning and heavy rain at times, I am not expecting much severe weather. Once this passes in the early morning hours, much colder air will move into our region. Tune into the Weekend Nightbeat for more details.
-Nick Ortego

Friday, December 19, 2008

Big blast of Arctic air expected!!!

Mild to warm weather will prevail across the Pine Belt until a very strong Arctic front passes late Saturday. Temps will begin to plumment and will barely make it to 50 on Sunday. Expect winds to very strong across the area as well. Lows in the mid 20s are possible by Monday morning with highs only in the low 40s on Monday. Christmas weather? Well, at this point it appears we will have mostly sunny skies with a high of around 60. Hopefully Santa will not bring us any weather suprises!!! Have a great day and thanks for watching and for visiting our website. Rex

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Cold Air... Sooner than later

For those of you that have been anxiously awaiting more winter like temperatures, it looks as if we may see them sooner than later. The cold front which is leading a strong blast of arctic air may reach the Pine Belt as early as Saturday night. This means Saturdays high is 76 while Sundays high is 49!

Before the cold air gets here we have to deal with some more rain and maybe thunderstorms. It's to early to talk about the potential for severe weather, so tune in Friday night for that.
-Nick Ortego

Foggy again this morning but a mostly sunny afternoon expected!!!

More dense fog has formed in the Pine Belt this morning but should begin to lift after 9:00 am. Mostly sunny and mild weather is on tap for the area this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s with no rain expected. Cold air is still forecast to arrive late Saturday or early Sunday with highs in the 40s for both Sunday and Monday. Have a great day! Rex

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Feast or Famine

What is normal? What is average? This week has been an extremely warm week. I can't believe waking up with temps still in the 60's, but things will be changing soon. As a professor of mine always said, the weather pattern is usually feast or famine. We are either really cold or really warm. Once again, what is normal? The next few days we will see our temps climbing into the upper 70's, but Sunday will deliver a cold weather changer into South Miss. By the way, Sunday is the first day of winter. Bottomline, Monday will be cold. Several things tell me we will be flipping into a cool weather pattern. An ensemble forecast of the Artic Oscillation shows a slight negative trend, which will allow Colder air to pull into the Eastern Corridor of the U.S., and the North Atlantic Oscillation is forecast to go negative to lock in the cold air. Also, most long range models indicate a Ridge/Trough pattern (this refers to the Eastern side of the U.S. in a trough, which allows cold air to filter down from Canada). This pattern will be different from our week-long Trough in the West and Ridge in the Southeast that we experienced this week. Although, next week we might see a couple shots of cold air throughout the time period. I mean we will see a strong cold front on Sunday, and we could also see another cold front mid-week. This means we will warm a tad inbetween cold fronts. What is expected for Christmas? A forecast for 8 days out is still very tough to make. My best thoughts right now are based on the long-range GFS and Canadian models. Precip on Christmas Eve but clearing out on Christmas Day. Temps look to be on the cool side. -Tanner Cade

Dense Fog... Again!

All of the Pine Belt is under a dense fog advisory Wednesday night. Fog is expected to redevelop and may be widespread until 9:00am Thursday.

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than one quarter of a mile.

A forecast remains steady.... Warm through Saturday, a cold front will move in Sunday.
-Nick Ortego

Dense Fog Advisory

Good morning Pine Belt! A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9:00 am . Please use extreme caution while driving and leave a little early for your destination! After the fog burns off expect mostly cloudy skies with highs in the mid 70s. A rather stout blast of Arctic air is still forecast to arrive sometime on Sunday with temps falling during the day. Highs on Monday will struggle to reach the lower 40s. Have a great day and please drive safely. Rex

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Low Visibility

Not much has changed from previous post about the forecast, but our fog situation must be addressed. Much of the Pine Belt is under a Dense Fog Advisory until 11:00am Wednesday morning.

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to less then one quarter mile.

Combine the moisture in place with light winds and we can look for widespread fog through out the night. Keep up with conditions by looking at our four Alfa SkyCams on the weather page.
-Nick Ortego

Monday, December 15, 2008

On the Cusp of Cold!

For the next 24 hours the Pine Belt will be on the cusp of cold. Right now about 80% of the country is being blasted by arctic air, and this cold air reaches all the way to Jackson, MS. Meanwhile Hattiesburg/Laurel has stayed unseasonably warm. The front will continue to push further South, but will stall right on top of us. We will experience somewhat cooler temps, but just temporarily. On Wednesday, we get a new blast of warm air from South. In fact, we will jump up into the upper 70s!

While all this is going on, we will have a lingering chance of rain. Not expecting severe weather, but an occasional strong downpour will be a possibility.

-Nick Ortego

Sunday, December 14, 2008

On the Warm Side

Above normal High and Low temperatures are expected for the majority of our week. This time of year we normally experiences Highs around 60° and Lows at about 40°. My forecast reflects Lows in the 50s through Thursday Night and Highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's through Friday. Although, the abnormal forecast comes with a tricky meteorology setup. Usually I can determine the surface temperature by looking at temperature trends at about 5,000 ft. high, but this Tuesday brings in a special low-level cold air blast into Mississippi. Will we experience the cold air? My thoughts expect Jackson to be the cut-off line for the cold air, but I do know our temps will be topping out in the upper 60s on Tuesday with clouds and showers in the forecast. Tuesday is also a day that our state could see a large range of temps. On Tuesday North MS could see freezing rain with temps in the mid-40s, but we should maintain a steady temp in the 60s. Some of us in our southern counties (Stone and George) could actually see 70°. Of course with such a temperature gradient and upperlevel energy we could see some scattered showers on Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday I will expect temps in the mid-70's, but another cold front will push through on Friday to give us a cool start to our first day of Winter next Sunday.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Warm Week ahead

After just compiling my forecast for the next few days I have a few things in mind for our near future. First, the next few days will be relatively warm for this time of year. High temps will be jumping into the 70's, which is about 10° above our average for this time of year. But do you remember earlier when I talked about a cooler than normal start of winter? Well even though we will have warm temps this week, several forecast models still show a cool week as we start the first full week of the winter season. What does this mean? Well I expect to see a short trend of warm temps this week, but next week I do expect to find us back to normal or a degree below normal. My next thoughts focus on possibly another wet week for us. I'm not expecting large rain totals within the next 7 days, but I am expecting a healthy dose of clouds and light precip. Any precip we get will continue to define this month as a wet one. So far we have already accumulated 2.66" here in South Jones County, but I do realize other isolated areas could easily be over 3" for the month so far. Stay tuned to my live weathercast tonight at 6 and 10 for a better picture of our upcoming weather. Thanks for reading and watching your WDAM Weather Team!

Friday, December 12, 2008

Tornadoes Confirmed by NWS

The National Weather Service Storm Surveys report multiple Tornadoes from Wednesday nights storm.

Hattiesburg An EF1 Tornado on December 10th at 1:13 AM CST -- Damage occurred to 7 apartment buildings around Foxgate Ave near the intersection of I-59 and 98. Most of the damage was to siding and roofs. One of the apartment buildings has significant roof damage. Several hardwood and softwood trees downed. Two cars were blown into each other, one a window was blown out. Minor damage to 4 other homes. The Tornado rated EF1 with 100 mph max winds. Max width 100 yards and path length 1 mile.

3 Miles NNE Ellisville [Jones County] An EF1 at 10 Dec, 01:08 AM CST -- *** 2 injured *** numerous hardwood and softwood trees snapped and uprooted. Minor roof and siding damage to 1 home and an unoccupied building. Two outbuildings were damaged... a power pole was snapped high up and two signs were damaged. some of the trees were blown onto Interstate 59. Tornado rated EF1 with 95 mph max winds. Path length 1 mile and max path width 150 yards.

4 Miles SSW Prentiss [Jefferson Davis Co, MS] at 09 Dec, 11:24 PM CST -- rated EF1 with maximum estimated winds at 95 mph. Most of the damage was minor to moderate tree damage. An outbuilding was destroyed on Burrow Road with tin strewn dozens of yards downstream. One house on fate ward road suffered some roof damage. Path length was 2.7 miles and max width was 50 yards.

Snow Totals and a Big Moon!

A quite weather day for us in the Pine Belt is a nice way to wrap up a busy weather week. However, tonight (Friday) there's a significant event if you look outside the atmosphere. The moon is the biggest and closest full moon to be seen in 15 years. It will pass 221,595 miles away, which is about 17, 400 miles closer than average. The next "closest encounter" with a full moon will not be until November 14, 2016

Below are snow totals from the Jackson, MS office of the NWS.

9" - New Hebron, Jeff Davis County
5" - Columbia, Marion County
5" - Kokomo, Marion County
5" - Jayees, Lawrence County
4.5" - Collins, Covington County
4" - Taylorsville, Smith County
4" - West Hattiesburg, Lamar County
4" - Prentiss, Jeff Davis County
3.5"- Mt. Olive, Covington County
2.5" - Bay Springs, Jasper County
2" - Purvis, Lamar County
1" - Ellisville, Jones County
.08-Hattiesburg, Forrest County

Hope you enjoyed it.
-Nick Ortego

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Talking Winter Weather...

The National Weather Service has just issued a Winter Storm Warning for a majority of Mississippi including areas in our viewing area West of I-59.  Timing on this warning is from midnight tonight to 6pm tomorrow.  This warning means significant amounts of snow are expected.  Strong winds are possible.  The combination of snow and wind will lower visibility.  Snow fall will be very wet in nature, which will make for large snowflakes.  Our biggest concern here in the weather center is the forecast of temperatures.  Yes, snow can still occur in temps above freezing.  The reason we could still see snow is because the ground up to about 800 ft. will be above freezing, and usually a distance of 1,000ft. above freezing will melt snow completely to liquid.  But since the falling snow will only have to pass through 800ft. of above freezing temps then we could still see snow at the surface.  Will it stick?  Obviously we need the ground temperature to be at or below freezing for snow to stick.  We are forecasting temps to be in the mid-30s by early morning when the snow is expected to fall.  Temps should stay in the mid to upper-30s through the morning, but our afternoon temp should jump into the lower 40s.  Thanks for reading!  We will have more updates later.

Winter Storm Watch

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of the WDAM viewing area beginning late tonight through Thursday morning. If all the ingrediants needed for snow come together we could see several inches in our area. According to the latest information available to us, rain mixed with snow is likely after midnight changing to all snow around 4:00 am.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

2:00am More Damage... Laurel & Hattiesburg

During the 1:00 O'clock hour, Jones County Law enforcement reports several trees down along Interstate 59 at exit 90. There was a car accident associated with the downed trees. A tornado warning was issued for this area at this time. Jones County Law enforcement also reports quarter size hail just North of Laurel.

From Jones County Emergency spokesman....Highway 11, North of Ellisville, trees and Power lines down. One person was injured.

In Hattiesburg we have had numerous calls of downed trees and a possible tornado there. However, the National Weather Service never detected rotation in the Hub City as a cell passed. I just spoke with Forrest County Emergency Management (@1:53am), and they say they have had reports of limbs down but no sign of a Tornado reported. At this point it sounds to me like some strong straight line winds... I passed the reports on the the NWS, and they can decide to investigate further.

Jasper County Emergency Management reports damage to a trailer roof, and a few limbs down.
-Nick Ortego

Storm Damage Report 1:00am Wednesday

As of 1:00am Wednesday, WDAM's Northern counties had been hit by the storm the hardest. multiple Tornado Warnings were accompanied by heavy rainfall, hail, winds, and a ridiculous amount of lightning. Law enforcement reported a tree down along Highway 28, West of Taylorsville. Emergency Management in Covington County reports penny size hail, while Jasper County Emergency Management reports quarter size hail. Our Titan Radar shows over 1,000 lightning strikes an hour within Jones County alone and many other counties have seen the same.

The main line of storms will not likely clear all of the Pine Belt until around 3:00am.

-Nick Ortego

Severe Tonight

Clouds and other variables have been good for limiting the severe weather this afternoon, but this whole event has barely even started. Have you stepped outside lately? Temps at 5:50pm are flirting around the 70°F mark, but, as you may know, we will have a big weather changer pushing through late tonight. I imagine most of us will be asleep by the time our main squall line and cold front push through. What is going to happen tonight? A strong line of rain will be pushing through South Mississippi as the night progresses. I expect the main line of rain to move through our viewing area after 10pm and past midnight. How much rain will we get? Well the front has already pushed through Monroe, LA. They received more than 2 inches. So if things hold out, we could see a similar total for different locations within the Pine Belt. Of course, we are still watching the area ahead of the front for the major risk of severe activity. My main concern tonight...Heavy Rain and Wind.

Frozen precip for the Pine Belt?

It still looks like we may see some type of frozen precip here in the Pine Belt Wednesday night thru Thursday. If things work come together it could be snow or a mixture light rain and snow!

The "S" word.....S*#W?!

There is a lot of buzz about snow in the Pine Belt. Two models (GFS and ECMWF) suggest snow is coming to South Mississippi Wednesday night and Thursday. However, models have been all over the place within the past 36 hours. It appears that an area of low pressure that's needed for snow will be in place. That low may result in dynamic cooling. (quick vertical cooling in the atmosphere caused by a drop in pressure.) However... how much dynamic cooling will take place? That is the billion dollar question.

But here is the catch, if we see snow in Mississippi, it will not be a widespread blanket of snow. It would more likely be a line of snow. In other words, it may snow in Jackson and Meridian, but not Hattiesburg and Laurel. Or the other way around? To predict an exact location at this point is nearly impossible. The slightest change in data could throw everything off.

So keep watching, or reading, and know that S*#W is a possibility. I'll reexamine the issue Tuesday evening.
-Nick Ortego

Moderate Risk

This morning the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, issued a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather for Northern LA and Central/Southern MS.  This area includes Areas west of I-59, but this is still a concern to areas east of I-59.  A Moderate Risk from the SPC means there is a 15% chance of a tornado occurring within a 25 mile radius of any point within the Risk Area.  A moderate risk is not issued very often so please stay tuned to our updates for more information.  My thoughts agree with this forecast from SPC, but we won't start experiencing severe weather until this afternoon and into this evening.  I expect the main cold front and squall line to move through around midnight tonight, but my greatest concern is what could happen before the front moves through.  As we will have a moderate to large amount of instability and dynamics for severe thunderstorms to develop south of I-20.  If you walk outside, you know there is more moisture in the air, which isn't normal, and this moisture will be a prime variable in creating thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening.  Please stay tuned to this blog throughout the afternoon and evening.  We will go on-air this afternoon/evening/night if our viewing audience is at risk of severe weather.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Severe Tuesday Night?

It has been months since the Pine Belt has been placed under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center, ( but this Tuesday we will need to have our guard up. With growing instability in the atmosphere and an approaching cold front, the Pine Belt may potentially see strong winds, thunderstorms, and a chance for tornadoes.

Our in house model suggest that the squall line will pass over the Pine Belt between 10:00pm Tuesday and 3:00am Wednesday. However, it is very possible that we may see some super cells develop in front of the squall line earlier Tuesday.

We are monitoring the situation in the 7 on Your Side Weather Center, stay tuned for more information.
-Nick Ortego

Live Weather Chat

Tonight at 7pm we will have a Live Weather Chat on  Our main discussion will be concerning our forecast for tomorrow night as the Storm Prediction Center has the Pine Belt under a slight risk of severe weather.  As time allows, Nick Ortego and Tanner Cade will also be taking any other weather questions you might have.  

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Big 24 Hour Change

Ok take yesterday and today, now bottle up both days and set it on the shelf because we won't be seeing the weekends weather for a few days. The next 24 hours is a major transition day for us in the weather world. Expect winds to slowly shift more to the SE as a High pressure system shifts east of our region. Winds alone can be a big story line because with a shift in the wind we will also begin to see a pull of more moisture from the Western side of the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoint temps are in the 20s now but I'll expect Dewpoint temps to be in the lower 50s by Tuesday morning. As I wrote about yesterday, because of the major influx of moisture, instability, and shear (upper level change of winds), the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for the Lower Mississippi River Valley (which includes the Pine Belt). Day 3 refers to Tuesday with Sunday being Day 1. I have also noticed the models have slowed down the frontal movement, but the back end of the front has exited quicker. In other words, I'll be looking for our main rain event coming into play Tuesday PM and into Wednesday AM, but our precip should clear out by Wednesday PM. Tuesday's impact looks like a squall line event, which we could see pass through between 6pm Tues and 6am Wed., and my main concern is wind and heavy rain (flash flooding). Of course with other variables factored in the slight chance of a tornado is in my thoughts. As this is the first severe weather threat for the season, I hope you will stay up-to-date with this blog and our live weathercast . Thank you for reading!

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Rain is coming

First of all, today has been a beautiful day! Temps have been on the cool side, but the sunshine definitely made this a wonderful day. This sunny weekend has packaged in cool and dry weather, but I must continue to look at our forecast for next week. A strong front will be digging it's way into our neck of the woods by Tuesday morning. I expect this frontal system to usher in plenty of moisture, shear, and lift to produce rain/thunderstorms. I'm a little surprised SPC (Storm Prediction Center) doesn't have any discussion about the chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The huge amount of moisture and strong upper-level jet is very hard to overlook in our forecast, but I also realize we are still 4 days out from this event. I'll wait for tomorrow for SPC to atleast have a small write-up about our area for Day 3 outlook. Overall, my main forecast is heavy rain with the threat for high winds and hail. Although so many things could change between now and Tuesday, but I am confident to expect rain on Tuesday. So much is happening next week in the weather world so please stay tuned to our live weathercast and this blog for updated details in our forecast. Thanks for reading!

Friday, December 5, 2008

Keep an Eye on Tuesday

It's a little early to be 100% sure about this, but keep an eye on our weather next Tuesday. There's a chance for strong if not severe storms. Pay close attention to the forecast Sunday and Monday.

-Nick Ortego

Cool Weekend...Rain Coming

Honestly, this morning felt very cold as I headed into the station. Wind Chill temp dropped to 20° this morning at PIB airport, which was 10° below the air temp.

Temperatures will be our main concern this weekend as temps will stay below average for this time of year. In fact, this December has already started off to be a cool and wet month so far.

Wet conditions will come back into play next week. In fact, Tuesday could potentially be a day of heavy rain. A strong Low Pressure system will sink into the the Mississippi River Valley and create an ample amount of instability throughout the Southeast. The ECMWF model actually has this setup lasting through Thursday. So could rain exist for a majority of our week?

I am also considering a thunderstorm event on Tuesday. A moderate amount of lift, instability, and moisture will be available for heavy rain and thunderstorms. The severe weather threat seems low at this point, but the potential for wind and hail is my first concern for next Tuesday.
Thanks for reading through our blog today!

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Rain Exit Right, Cold Air Enter Left

As of 3:15pm Thursday, we are done with most of the rain. The clouds are still in place and a light rain or mist is possible, but it will be so light you will not find it on radar. But lets forget about the rain, that's the past.

The cold air, accompanied by wind, is what the future holds, and it's coming in strong from the NW. Overnight, expect temps to drop into the lower 30's and winds to blow around 10-15 mph.

Tomorrow it will be a prettier day, but still cool with highs in the low to mid 50s.
-Nick Ortego

Rain far

As of 7:10am
Here in Eastabuchie: 0.57"
Grubbs Ford in Columbia: 0.57"
Pine Belt Airport: 0.60"
Bobby Chain (Hattiesburg): 0.54"
Jackson, MS: 1.03"
Meridian: 0.89"

Bad news: you might have to walk outside in the rain this morning
Good news: The rain is moving through relatively quickly.

The front is pushing through quickly as we see the rain totals nearing between 0.5" to 1.0". My biggest story is rain in this morning, but our weather will be clearing out as the day progresses. By this evening, some of our western counties (Walthall, Marion, Jefferson Davis, Covington, and Smith) might actually see a beautiful sunset. Some low level clouds could still be hanging around for the rest of the viewing area. Temps won't be warm at all. Our high for the next few days tops out in the mid-50s.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Rain Timing Update

At 4:00pm Wednesday, you can see the line of showers through Arkansas and Texas coming together nicely. By our 10:00pm newscast, I expect the line of showers to look impressive, but still be hours from the Pine Belt. Models suggest that rain will be approaching our western counties in the early morning hours of 4:00-7:00 o'clock. This means we will likely be dealing with some type of rainfall throughout the morning commute. Intense severe weather is not likely, but isolated pockets of wind, heavy rain, and lightning can not be ruled out.

Once the front pushes through expect much cooler air on the other side. Thursday nights low is 31!

Rain Timing

In light of tomorrow's rain forecast, I have already received a phone call from a viewer wondering about the timing of the forecast.
Well honestly, the models aren't close enough for me at this time to really rely on a consensus. My thoughts make me think the system is a little slower than the GFS, and this would allow rainfall to begin in the early morning. I do expect things to be clearing by the time you go to sleep Thursday night. A few models like the SREF have moisture sticking around through the evening, but I do believe the main instability and lift mechanisms will be out of the picture.

As this is a streched shortwave system, I would suspect some clouds to stick around behind the main push of the front. Friday looks like a Mostly Sunny day.

Temps will drop off a bit behind the front. Cold Air advection, CAA, will bring in stable conditions with a big of a clearing. 850 temps look like last week's rainfall event, but the difference is the direction of the wind flow. Cold Air Advection hinders uplift and development of moisture, but last week we had a nice Warm Air Advection area bringing in a swatch of moisture.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Cool Future...

We have already had mild Summer and Fall seasons, but what is in store for winter? Well our winter will officially begin on December 21, and plenty of difficult exist in forecasting weather several weeks in advance. Although we can make a good effort at distinguishing future trends, which will help us produce a future forecast.

Right now I am noticing a below normal trend in temperatures for the next few weeks. Several long range models are producing a ridge/trough pattern across the U.S. This would deliver us cool temperatures as cP (continental polar) air will have a better opportunity to filter into our region. The Artic Oscillation, which brings cold air into the Eastern U.S., will be going extremely negative by the middle of December. This will allow the great possibility of us to be cooler than normal heading into the 1st day of Winter on Dec. 21. Also the NAO, North American Oscillation, looks to be going negative, which helps lock in the cold air for the Eastern Conus of the U.S.
Honestly, I am really interested to see what numbers we end up experiencing as they will be compared to these models right now.
Take care

Sunday, November 30, 2008


Got your attention didn't I?

A viewer recently called me to see if we were going to get snow tonight because he heard we were. Before I talk about snow here in South Mississippi I must communicate my careful wording. In my mind, several people can easily translate the word "snow" into the roads and ground covered in white, puffy and beautiful, snow, and they might also run to the grocery store to "gear up" for staying inside for a few days. In other words, I'm careful to use the word snow, but I will gladly be using more descriptive words while making a snow forecast so listen carefully.

Tonight we will have below feezing temperatures 1,000 to 2,000 feet above the ground, which is usually enough distance from the ground to melt any snow/ice from falling. But wilder things can still happen. In this case, if we still have enough moisture in the air, we might see a snowflake (or we might get lucky with 2 snowflakes).

This event will not be something to write home about, but I feel like I need to share my thoughts on this as many people have been discussing this lately.

Overall, we will be experiencing very cold upper-level temperatures through Tuesday night. Mondays high will be tough to roll above 50F, and temps will drop to the upper 20s Tuesday night.

Thanks for reading! Please email me your comments! And maybe go ahead and run to the store and get some hot chocolate is going to be chilly. Hopefully you will see "the" snowflake fall.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Love Weather

I love my job.
I love weather.
I love the rainfall.

In our ever-changing weather pattern, things in our weather department never get old. A new day of work means a new day of weather and patterns to study and forecast. Our rainfall here in the last 36 hours has brought many of us back up to our average mark of rainfall for the whole month of November. No a hurricane did not pass through South Mississippi, but a wet and juicy stationary front claimed residence in our district. This stationary boundary has now moved out of the way, but we still have a couple of cold fronts to push on through. In fact, we could see our coldest High temperature since Jan. '08 this upcoming Monday. Our records at the station show we haven't seen a high of 48 since this past January. My forecast for Monday...48.

Feel free to email me your thoughts at

Friday, November 28, 2008


Here in Eastabuchie we have received 0.19" by 9:30am, which is a small amount compared to the heavy 0.54" already seen in Jackson.

If you have watched this mornings newscast, you've noticed the radar imagine this morning has produced a long line of rain along the I-20 corridor. This is all due to a stationary boundary bringing plenty of moisture and colliding with a moderate upper-level jet streak.

I'll be keeping track of rain totals as we continue to experience a rainy 48 hours (or more).

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Warm Morning Temps

Inside your household you might be smelling turkey and sweet potatoes, but after stepping outside you might be able to sense precipitation on our door step here in the Pine Belt. Showers have already started breaking out across Louisiana, and I expect the showers to slowly progress eastward within the next 24 hours.

A boundary will sit down over Central Mississippi through Saturday night. This will aid in delivering our rain through Friday because the boundary will continue to pump moisture in South Mississippi. The mix of the moisture and upper level jet will allow enough available lift to create the forecast showers.

On Sunday, I expect a large cold front to push the stationary boundary southward and give way to very chilly temperatures. The GFS is still forecasting -10C 850mb temps, which is the coldest of the Fall season, but the European model is persistently producing only -4C 850 temps. In the end, Monday could be coldest day we have experienced this season.

Enjoy your thanksgiving!

God Bless

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

New Episode of Tanner Cade Hour

The newest episode of the Tanner Cade Hour is up! Please feel free to check out the 5th episode of the season.

Sunny Today...Rain Tomorrow/Friday

The main focus on my forecast today is looking forward to the rain event Thursday night and Friday, but a certain computer forecast model caught my attention this morning. The raw GFS model showed me snow flurries and freezing rain for Sunday night. Now don't jump out of your seat.
Let me tell you the GFS has propragated the cold canadian air farther south than the "ole faithful" European model. This is normal for the GFS to bring cold air too far south so I don't expect anything worthy of discussing, but the upper level air will definitely be cooling down to -4C.

I expect the rain to impact our region starting Thursday evening and ending Friday night. Some showers might linger around Saturday morning, but the majority of the rain seems to be a Friday event. Amounts should only total less than 0.25".

Monday, November 17, 2008

Cool Start but Beautiful Day

Well we have seen an incredibly clear morning with well below average temperatures. In hattiesburg, the average for this time of year is 70/45, but this morning we reached a low of 29 in Eastabuchie.
Today we will experience a small increase in moisture, which will allow our afternoon temps to reach the mid-60s. A cold front will also be quietly moving southward throughout the magnolia state throughout the day, but our conditions will remain beautiful. Tuesday will hold the main effects of the Cold front as our high temp will barely touch the upper 50s.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

How wet will we get?

Right now I am taking note of the different models and the potential rain for our region. The latest models runs seem to show some interesting points. Let me break it down for you...

Eta: The majority of the rain on Wednesday will be found NW of us in the Pine Belt Region. Between Wednesday and Thurdsay, South Mississippi seems to only have a light amount of rain.

GFS: South Mississippi holds the majority of the rain from now till Friday morning. Although the total rain amount is less than Eta.

WRF: (12Z; old data) This model also agrees with the most recent run of Eta. The majority of the rain will be found NW of the PIB, but we will still experience a light to moderate amount through Thursday night.

The Eta and GFS obviously have some differences, but the Eta is back to it's normal bias. Eta is usually the model to over-exaggerate the total amount of rain. Although the Eta seems to match up better with the analysis of the current sfc map, and the GFS has been too short on extending the rain in North Mississippi today.

My thoughts:
Rain is in the forecast, but I can't go as high of a percentage as NWS at 100% tomorrow (wednesday). I think we will see rain, but only on the light end (less than 0.25"). I also think the rain will be a little more scattered than most people are expecting.
But you must know some of us might have the opportunity to see more than 0.25" in a moderate event.

Feel free to keep track of the rain on Wednesday and Thursday from our Interactive Radar on the Weather Page drop down menu. It is an excellent resource during rain events.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Here comes the moisture

Well my main story will be focused on boundaries and moisture. By 0Z Wednesday ( Tuesday afternoon) I expect to see an increase in moisture. This increase in moisture will put us in the middle of warm front, but we could see a shot at some isolated thunderstorms with most of seeing a healthy cloud deck. The biggest question in my forecast is the timing and location of the rain. Mississippi will see rain this week, but when and where will we see the rain?

Tuesday night could see a boundary cut through our viewing area from the NW and progressing in the east and southeastern regions. Wednesday will also see a similar pattern during the day, but Thursday ( 5 days out) seems like a more challenging forecast. I'm focused mainly on the Tuesday/Wednesday event this evening. Thursday will have the chance to package in some more rain as a major trough builds in the center of the country.

Total Rain:
Overall you might catch yourself in a localized heavy rainfall, but the majority of the pine belt region I wouldn't expect a large amount of rain. On my scale, I am going with the pine belt receiving a light amount of rain with only a few areas seeing a moderate amount.

After Thursday:
Friday we shoud see conditions clearing as the day progresses. Friday night and the weekend should be a cool couple of days and nights. I'm barely putting a high temperature in the 60s with 61,60, respectively for the weekend. My reason, I expect 850 temps to be below freezing by mid-day Saturday.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008


Tornado Watch box and a few Tornado Warnings have been issued in the Central Plains, but i am mainly interested in the the front which is creating all of the activity in the plain states today. This front has really churned into something worth noting. I believe the 996mb Low sitting over Eastern South Dakota holds one of the lowest pressure levels we have seen across the nation in the last few weeks. This Low system will be moving slowly Northeasterward in the next 2 days, which will put us on the southern end of the front.


Instability will be light in South Mississippi by the time the front moves into our region. WRF and SREF models show me a lack in CAPE and Shear by late Thursday night and into Friday morning. The moisture will be around as tomorrow we expect to see dewpoints in the upper 50s and maybe around the 60 degree mark.
As the majority of the mechanisms will be light in our area, my forecast for rain is on the lighter end, but I wouldn't be surprised to see our Western Counties of Jeff'Davis, Smith, Simpson, and even Covington, catching a moderate amount of rain between 0.25" and 1.00". As the front moves eastward across the PIB, I expect the rain totals to decrease. This will be partially due to the lack of instability in the overnight hours.

Right now SPC only shows a slight risk for portions of West MS and a majority of LA. I don't expect anything severe for our area, but the possibility is always in the front of our minds here in the weather center.

Thanks for reading with us today!

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Tanner Cade Hour

And on this Election Day I hope you were able to get out and voice your opinion through voting.

A couple of things...

"The Tanner Cade Hour minus 55 minutes or so" is a new show I am producing for our website. This show will be updated every Wednesday afternoon. Please feel free to take a few minutes at your desk Wednesday afternoon to watch the new show!

Feel free to email me your weather questions at

Thanks for keeping up with us here on the blog and here at

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Quiet till Thursday

1036mb High has taken control of our weather scene.

Our forecast exist without a major change until Thursday. Monday to Wednesday will package a slow increase in temperature and moisture. The GFS shows me a 12C 850mb temperature for Wednesday, which is the warmest 850 temp we have seen within the last 7 days.

Tuesday and Wednesday I see us reaching temps a few degrees above normal into the upper 70s, but a moderate cold front will move in late Thursday to change our weather scene. Models have slowed down a bit on the advancement of this cold front on Thursday, but I am still expecting the rain chances to be Thursday PM to a Friday AM event. Although Thursday's high temperature is tricky to forecast right now with the low confidence on when the pre-frontal clouds will move into our region. I'm expecting us to reach a temp in the mid-70s, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this number change a tad between now and then.

Friday's temps are on the low confidence side without a strong model agreement. European shows me 850mb temps at 6C but GFS (which is generally a little too cold) shows me 850 temps at the freezing mark.

Rain chance:
Most of the models show the trough moving more NE by Thursday, which will take some of the vorticity and energy North of us. But the 5 day Severe Outlook has the Lower MS River Valley in the window for a little activity (mainly thunderstorms). CAPE and Shear are all very low at this point so I don't expect a severe event. The main rain will end up be more on the light end of the scale with some people catching some moderate amounts of rain.

In the end, another beautiful weekend ahead.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Very Pleasant..Very Nice

If you are looking for a long and deep weather discussion then you better go look at some station's websites in the Northwest US. Our weather story these next handful of days seems very pleasant and very nice. Our friend, "high pressure system," will sit down to our NE over the next few days and really clear our skies out, which will give us a light breeze from the East. Although Sunday night we will see our dewpoint temps increase a tad which will allow our overnight temps to increase as well.

Our next big weather changer looks to be developing in the NW over the weekend. By Monday/Tuesday a well definied trough will be digging across the Rockies, and our impact from this trough should be around Thursday and little into Friday. We are still pretty far out to talk seriously on the timing of this trough, and even the depth of the trough into our region seems very early to nail down anything solid. A few models have shown me only a light shower event, but I must still be aware of the possibility for more of a moderate rainfall event. The one thing we must remember as we enter into the "cool months" is the amount of energy we need for uplift (rain) events. We experience more stable atmospheres in the winter months so we need more vertical uplift and vorticity to to spur on credible rain forecast. All this can be compared to the summer, when our incredible unstable atmosphere only needs a little vorticity and UVVs to create a rain event.

Enjoy your weekend! Be sure to enjoy the beautiful clear nights!

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

A Lesson in Radiational Cooling

Well of course these nights are cold! Why are we experiencing these cold temperatures?

The weather scene is perfect for what we call radiational cooling, but let me first explain what hinders radiational cooling. During the day the ground heats up from absorbing the shortwave radiation from the sun, but the ground doesn't gain any energy once the sun sets. At night the ground emits longwave radiation (energy), but clouds aid in keeping the heat (energy) in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This event will allow the night-time temperature to level-off as oppossed to decreasing dramatically. Now our forecast tonight doesn't involve clouds so nothing will hold back the energy removed from the ground. The clear skies will allow the energy to lost from the low levels of the atmosphere.

Also, high winds will cause the lower level temperature to remain in the lower level. Think of this as a big mixing bowl. The ground's temperature won't be able to leave the lower levels as effieciently as calm winds. Calm winds act as a quick escape for the ground's energy. Our forecast tonight include calm winds.

So tonight will be cold. Break out the winter quilts and turn on the heater because tonight we will experience textbook longwave radiational cooling.

****Also, tomorrow premiers the 1st episode of "The Tanner Cade Hour minus 55 minutes or so" on This is my show for a once-a-week episodes (web only).

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Coldest of the Fall

The title to this blog might become a trend within the remaining days of this Fall season, but our nighttime low temps are always interesting to track this time of year as we slowly transition into winter. This morning we had a low temp of 39, and we haven't had a temperature in the 30s since April 16. So the front that moved through this past Thursday certainly delivered us the low temperature this morning.

On to the forecast:
My thoughts going into our forecast hinge on one factor: another cold front. Yes, we have another cold front already brewing in the Northern Plains. This front will bring us more of a true "Canadian" air mass into the lower MS River Valley, but we will be warming tomorrow ahead of the front.
Right now we have a 1020mb high over the ARLaMiss (just to our west), but this high will quietly move a little south by mid-day tomorrow and bring in a slight push of moisture from the west. The increase in moisture and 850 temps to 12°C will allow us to see temps in the upper 70s across South Mississippi. Although things will continue to change as we move through the day tomorrow. Our biggest change will be ramming down the whole Eastern Corridor of the nation. We, however, will be located in the NVA (negative vorticity advection) zone of the cold front. This really means we will find ourselves on the "left side" of the trough where the convergence and lift are not available for rainfall activity (or even cumulus clouds). Also dewpoint temps will really crash into the upper 20s on Monday Night. Another interesting note should be made about the 1035mb High settling in over the Southern Plains by Tuesday.

So what do I see from this? The front will move through late Sunday night and into early Monday morning, which allows monday afternoons temps to struggle getting into the mid-60s. Most of Miss. will see lower 60s and upper 50s. Basically, our air will be nearly "bone" dry Monday night allowing excellent longwave radiational cooling. Right now I have a forecast low of 36 but you wouldn't have to pull my arm to hard to drop in the lower 30s. Now I must also realize that several folks in our state will potentially see their first frost of the year during this episode.

After Monday things will still be mild. Tuesday looks to be very similar to Monday's forecast, but things will slowly become more "mild" by the middle of the week. Wednesday highs will be the upper 60s before the late-week highs jumping into the lower 70s for Thursday/Friday.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Cool Temps and Rain Forecast

These past few nights we have certainly seen the coolest days of the 2nd half of 2008. Here in Eastabuchie we dropped to 40° last night and Saturday night. Wow! Personally I am excited with the weather we have been experiencing lately. Although I do know some of us would really like to see more rainfall for all of the agricultural professionals out there.

By the way, while we are talking about rainfall, do you have a rain gauge? If so, let me know what you are using for your rain gauge and hopefully we can start communicating with you during rain events. I realize we have several areas in our viewing area that we don't have an accurate precipitation bucket. So feel free to send me a little email at and hopefully we can start working together.

So our forecast is still beautiful for the next couple of days, but we must be looking ahead for the next rain event. Models have really nailed the last few rain forecast but the models are only slightly agreeing on this next rain event. I am definitely seeing a good shot at some rain on Thursday, but the tricky part about this forecast involves Friday's forecast. The WRF model really shows my thoughts on this forecast because I believe we won't see a lot of rain on Friday, but the GFS and European show the system (front) hanging around through most of Friday. Temps are also a big issue with this incoming system. European isn't as cold as the GFS, but I usually expect the GFS to be more aggressive on the advancement of cold air.

I know it might be hard to tell from this picture, but the GFS shows the rain starting Thursday morning.

One more note, this pattern in October is defines one reason why I love weather. I simply love the change of weather from warm and cloudy to cool and clear. My feelings on this probably begin because I enjoy not being able to habitually love and experience one weather scene. Right now I love the fall, but in the spring I will tell you I love the spring.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Inverted Trough?

Inverted trough? Yes. The clouds and very very light drizzle in our region are due to the influence of an inverted trough. The general definition of inverted would refer to a system that isn't normal or rare. We usually see troughs move from West to East across the country, but we are seeing a small trough (shortwave) move from East to West in the SE'stern U.S. This is very unique and has caused MOS and other models to miss the forecast for a few runs, but I feel like most meteorologist are starting to grasp the whole scenario very well. We saw high temps today only in the mid-70s and we actually recorded 0.01" of rain here at the station. I know a few of us here in the PIB did experience very light drizzle, which didn't accumulate into much precip.

My forecast has this inverted trough moving out of the way by early Tuesday morning, which will allow more sunshine on Tuesday and Wednesday. The next big weather factor comes into our forecast on Thurdsay/Friday as we will begin to see the influence of a cold front. This front shouldn't cause to much rain, but temps will decrease a little bit.

Long Range:
By Saturday and into the next week I expect a major Ridge/Trough pattern to lace itself across the nation. With a ridge developed over the Western U.S. we will see the impact of a Trough sitting/stalling in the Eastern Conus of the U.States. For us we will experience cooler temps and only a small chance of rain through next week.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

AB Day: Absolutely Beautiful

This was a beautiful day. After the front moved through Hattiesburg/Laurel at 5am this morning our dewpoint temps dropped into the 50s allowing a very pleasant sunrise and rest of the day. At PIB Airport we never saw a reading higher than 73°, which is about 9° below our average high temperature for this time of year. Wow! I'll take it.

And for the remainder of the week our fair weather friend, a high pressure system, moves into the Southeast US. This is good news for those wanting to enjoy a weekend outside. Although our temperatures will definitely be more seasonable by Friday with highs in the lower 80s and up to about 84/85.
My eye is caught on our next major front. The GFS, which often moves fronts too far south too quickly, has backed off a bit on the intensity for us, but we will see some influence of this front by Sunday or Monday. More moisture will be able to filter back into Mississippi by Sunday. After we see an increase in moisture I'll be waiting around for the front to move through. Right now the European Model shows 850 temps starting to lower by Wednesday morning, but the Canadian Model's spaghetti plot isn't very confident in the exact placement of the trough by Mid-week. Tuesday through Thursday seems to be my range of days for my forecast of frontal movement, but many things are still "up in the air."

Right now my best guess looks more at the European with a Wednesday influence of the front, and rainfall will probably fall along the same day. No matter what actually happens, I'm banking on a front moving through the Pine Belt by Thursday afternoon.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Rain far

As of 5pm:

WDAMTV: 0.29"
Pine Belt Regional: 0.20"
Bobby L. Chain (Hatt.): **0.01"(not quality controlled)
Jackson Int. Airport: 0.23"
McComb Pike County: 0.03"
Meridian Key Field: 0.59"
Pascagoula (Lott Int. Arp): 0.02"
Gulport-Biloxi Arpt: 0.46"
Hammond, LA: 0.12"

Just raining...

Today explains why I love weather.  We go two weeks without rain and then we suddenly have heavy rain showers with tons of moisture in the air. changes.

My award for the day goes out to the WRF model which has depicted this rain event very accurately ( so far).  My thoughts about today's rain rolled very close to WRF's forecast, and I am definitely thrilled to see the model come through.   We saw a good shot of rain in Hattiesburg this morning before a few hours of muggy sunshine.  In fact, when the skies cleared late-morning, I knew our instability would really drop out.  Heating from the sun and tons of moisture certainly allows rain to pop up fast.  

I'm watching a rather large cell impact southern Lamar county...Hopefully later I can find some rain totals.  As one caller from Rock Hill said, "It is coming down in sheets."

The rain won't be over this afternoon.  I do expect to see bands of rain move through into the late-night hours.  

Monday, October 6, 2008

Back in the Saddle again

Well our big story this week in the weather center is our forecast for rain!  Yes, we have a rain forecast.  It has been more than 2 weeks since we have seen a drop of rain, but in fact today we actually have seen plenty of rain for Stone County and parts of Forrest/Lamar/Marion counties.  A front is making headway through the Oklahoma/Arkansas region today and is expected to push through here on Tuesday.  Although Wednesday we still might see some lingering showers and even Thursday might see a drop or two.  

One interesting note about this event is the thunderstorm activity.  Heavy rain is expected tomorrow from about 8am till mid-day (then on and off throughout the rest of the day), but we will definitely see some lightening mixed in with the rain.  I have only seen a few wind damage reports from today's activity in the Ozarks, but I know we could still see some thunder and lightening.  

Wow do we need the rain.  I think I simply excited to know we are finally starting to get into the mix of our usual Fall-like Fronts pushing through.  After this front tomorrow, we will see another major front push through next Sunday/Monday.  More to come later. 

Some new updates: 
Tropical Storm Marco was just named off the far south shore of Mexico.  The 13th named storm of the 2008 season doesn't seem like a major threat to the Continental U.S. as it will meander around Central America for awhile.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Cool Temperatures

Here at the station we experienced a low temperature of 53!
We haven't seen temperatures this low since May 17th, but I know we can all handle the cool mornings as we finish the first week of Fall.

One reason we are experiencing the cool low temperatures is due to the Low pressure system over the Carolinas. This Low is swinging NE'sterly wind down the App. Mountain Range, which really dries out our air. The dry air and clear skies allow plenty of longwave radiation, which can remove plenty of energy from the surface.

We could see Dewpoint Temps in the upper 40s, which is certainly a major change from our normal in the 60s.

Enjoy the nice weather!

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Forecast = Sunshine

After a long and rainy day yesterday, we have plenty of sunshine in our forecast. Sunday evening there at still some showers lingering along the MS coast line, but the whole Pine Belt region is watching a beautiful sunset. Only a few very scattered clouds claim residency in the sky above, but these clouds will soon be on their way out. A major trough is moving across the NW U.S. and a major High pressure is building in the NE U.S. The trough will not influence our forecast, yet the High in the NE is expected become strong. Both the NAM and GFS models show a 1034mb High by Tuesday morning, which is about 21mb higher than the normal pressure value of 1013mb. Remember, a high pressure system relates to clear and sunny weather. We will see this High influencing our weather through atleast the midweek point. On Friday we might start to see clouds forming across our area from the East.

This high located to our NE will allow us to have mainly an east wind, but not until Thursday night could we see our driest conditions. Even though we will have clear skies, which helps remove longwave radiation (solar radiation) from the ground, we will still have dewpoint temps in the lower 60s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will help keep our Low around 63 Monday night, but by Thursday Dewpoint temps could easily be in the 50s. Ironically, as soon as we see our driest conditions we could start to see more moisture from the baroclinic low forming over the carolinas. This low can do several things, but the GFS shows us a westward movement over AL/GA by Friday. This low will be a challenge because I will also be studying the relation of a new tropical wave (possible Tropical Storm Kyle) by late this week. This tropical wave is expected to move North from it's current position over Puerto Rico.

We will talk more about the late week forecast tomorrow and Tuesday.

Enjoy Monday!

Friday, September 19, 2008

A weekend rain forecast

We don't have tropical activity but this is definitely a challenging forecast. Many times scattered showers are the most difficult to forecast because it is hard to determine the timing and location of the rain. Here in the Pine Belt we find ourselves in the midst of a huge atmosphere with an infinite amount of particles, and now forecasteres attempt to make a forecast for your city and your neighborhood. Many days I am amazed how our technology can allow us to forecast a few days in advance with improving data and research.

In this forecast it would be a foolish thing to say it will rain at your football stadium tonight. Although I can tell you there is a 50% chance someone in the Pine Belt will see rain this afternoon and night. Moisture is a major part of my decision in our forecast. This morning will still have a lot of dry air in the mid-levels, which will actually evaporate any moisture before touching the ground. This dry air is also inhibiting the creation of more showers across our region. I actually watched a "dryish" line run into a "moist-ish" line this morning, which allowed light showers to build into Jefferson Davis County and Covington County (for a lack of better words). Now the small line has formed a little more southerly into Louisiana.

I do expect some moisture from our SW and the Gulf to filter into our region throughout the day today. In fact, most of the day we will be under the reign of a cloud deck. This will also keep our temps down to below the 80 degree mark, but some of us in the southern counties might spot 80 or 81. The majority of us will be below 80. The cool temps will also continue into the weekend with cloud cover and capping a high temperature below average. Upper 70s is my forecast through Sunday, but Sunday's high could change a little as we see what is going to playout tonight and Saturday. MOS and many models aren't agreeing on their precip forecast, but models are agreeing on the Low Level Jet entering our region.

A shortwave will be sticking around us for the weekend, but the first day of Fall will bring us the entrance of another High pressure system. I expect clearer skies to start off the first full week of Fall.

Have a good Friday!

Monday, September 15, 2008

A Glimpse of Fall...

Here at our station the temperature is already 67°! We are well on our way to a really cool night.

Late today we finally experienced the effects of the cool and dry air mass behind the front. I know many parents and fans are having a great time watching football games throughout our region tonight. During my dinner break I was able to see the local football field in Petal turning the lights on for a game under the lights. Of course, these next few nights are a great time to enjoy outdoor activities with friends and family. For our weather, this is a great pattern change after multiple tropical events.
Most models have us controlled by a high pressure system through Wednesday. By Thursday, the High begins to move out of reach as we might begin to see a chance of showers throughout the weekend.
I am expecting many of us to see a low temperature in the 50s at some point during this week. Although our southern counties might struggle to drop below the 60 degree mark.

During this time of beautiful weather please feel free to email me your pictures, thoughts, and questions. If qualified, I know I will show the best "beautiful weather" picture on-air by this weekend. I will be out of the office through Wednesday, but I will definitely be checking my email. As for now, I will see you bright and early Thursday and Friday while I fill-in for Mr. Rex Thompson.

Take Care!

Sunday, September 14, 2008

A rainy night...

Well, how about a nice rain shower for the Pine Belt on this Sunday evening? A rain-only event rolled through our region tonight, and most of the rain totals weren't as high as expected. The whole line of rain actually lost intensity as it moved through Jefferson Davis County and Marion County. The rain totals reflect this...

Pike County McComb: 1.30"
Jackson, MS: 0.58"
Bobby Chain Airport: 0.24"
Meridian-Key Field: 0.49"
**WDAM-TV: 0.01"

The Pine Belt Regional Airport wasn't reporting any rain, and I think our rain gauge here at the station needs to be checked. I know we received more than 0.01" here.

Now the scenario outside reflects a warm, cloudy, fall night. The cold front is laced across the Pine Belt region right now, but things will slowly change as we move throughout the day tomorrow. But some models are still holding onto some light showers tomorrow afternoon. With precip, the raw NAM has shown me great production with this event, and the same model also shows no rain for Monday. So I really want to lean to a lack of rain for tomorrow, and the abundance of clouds for most of the day will maintain stability. I am not expecting a lot of sunshine tomorrow, but I might look for some showers if we receive some sun rays through the exiting Stratus cloud deck.

My question for you...When will these lovebugs leave? I must apologize because I have never experienced these bugs in such abundance. My car isn't a fan of these guys.

I am hoping to see a few bugs leave town when our winds shift in a post-frontal event.

9/14 Front pushing through

I am currently watching a front move through our region. My Grubbs Ford Alfaskycam in Columbia, MS, already indicated a NW turn in the winds, but the data is still waving between West to North. You can see all of the current camera views on our weather page ( John E Lewis Field has already experienced 1.07" in about a 2 hour window as the line of storms has pushed through McComb, MS, in Pike County.
After looking at the radar loop, I am watching the line of showers break down a tad. In fact, the system is sitting down a bit. I mean the whole line is starting to become less intense but broadening. Although...I do expect most of the precip to be out of the Pine Belt between 10p-Midnight.

I'll come back with another update later....

Saturday, September 13, 2008

9/13 Forecast Thoughts...

The big story for us in the Pine Belt is the approaching front on Sunday, and Ike is becoming extratropical by losing tropical characteristics and still maintaining strong winds. Both the front and the remanents of Ike will join together to form a very long line of showers. One interesting forecasting note...Usually the Eta model over forecast total rain, but the Eta is rather dry for Sunday night. Now the GFS has turned a model run into a very wet event for Sunday night. The GFS is 2.16" compared to Eta's 0.15". The European is along the same lines with the GFS, but the WRF seems to cut both models down the middle at around an inch.

I'm tempted to raise my POPs (probability of precipitation) for Sunday, but I am feeling rather comfortable with 40%. My concern for avoiding a high probability is related to the warm and drier air aloft. This air has helped us see less convection across the region today and I believe we will still have some leftover pieces tomorrow night.

My big weather story starts on Tuesday. Everyone and anything is agreeing on dry air and North wind starting on Monday afternoon/night. After the front moves through our region Monday morning we will quickly begin to feel the wind shift to the North. This North wind will remove us from the moist influence of the Gulf and open our airways to dry continental air. I expect this pattern to last throughout the remainder of the week. For me, this is a difficult choice to keep this pattern through the week, but I feel this is the pattern we must be experiencing as we roll into the transition from Summer to Fall. I am not saying we won't see another warm spell again, but I do believe we will maintain our below average temperatures for the next few weeks. (At least it is definitely a possibility)

Thanks to all of you! I hope you have a great weekend! Please feel free to email...

Friday, September 12, 2008

Ike Update - Friday

A major life threatening storm will hit the Texas coast early tomorrow morning.  The 1pm NHC update:
Ike: Category 2
Max Sustained Winds: 105mph
Minimum Pressure: 957mb
Velocity: WNW 12mph
Location: 165 miles SE of Galveston and 270 miles E of Corpus Christi

Ike has already proven to be larger than Gustav.  Gustav produced hurricane force winds of about 70 miles from the center and tropical storm winds only 220 from the center.  Ike is a very large tropical cyclone with hurricane force winds 120 miles out-from-center and tropical storm force winds extend about 275 miles away.  
Ike's huge size has also created an incredible storm surge.  While Ike has moved through the Gulf, the storm surge has continued to increase under the wide-stretching arms of the outer bands.  Even though Ike is only a Category 2, the size of the whole tropical storm will cause major damage along the Upper Texas coast.  I have also noticed the water along the MS Coast rising about 6ft, so I would expect the SW coastline of Louisiana to also see incredible rise in Gulf coast water.  

I also realize you might be wondering about Ike's intensification.  Ike's characteristics in the last 48 hours is a prime example of the difficult in forecasting intensity.  Even in today's huge technology gains we still have major wrinkles to iron out in determining the formation of the intensity and eye wall.   Also, the latest Wator Vapor loop tells me some dry air is hindering the flow of moisture in the storm.  Tropical storms hate dry air, and with a continued influence of dry air I would be a little surprised to see Ike become a Cat 3 at landfall.  Although at this point who cares about the exact category of Ike?  We have already established Ike is a major threat to the TX coastline, and the storm surge will not diminish now.  Now the only object that will stop Ike's storm surge is the upper-coast of Texas.  

Sometimes I am not a stats guy when it comes to minor differences in projected tropical categories.  My main concern is always the threat to human life, and Ike definitely posses a threat to human lives.  If you have relatives in the Galveston/Houston area, please encourage your relatives to evacuate.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Ike Update

Ike is slowly increasing in intensification. With sea surface temperatures well above 80°F and wind shear of only 5-10kts, Ike could become a Cat 3 overnight and even a Cat 4 by tomorrow night. Ike is also under good upper-level diffluence, which allows the whole hurricane to maintain strength with a steady lift from the sfc to the top of the cloud deck. The last 24 hours has also shown us an infrared satellite image of very cold cloud tops in the center of rotation. In fact, I have seen temps colder than -75°C , which is near the top of most IR temperature scales. One thing is for sure, Ike is liable to be a very dangerous storm for the TX coast line, but most of the Gulf coast will see an influence of Ike.
Here in the Pine Belt we have a slight chance of seeing some isolated showers on Thursday and Friday afternoon, but the best shot of rain should come in to play along the southern portion in Pearl River, Stone, and George County.

The image at the top shows the latest model runs still leaning to a Corpus Christi. I feel like I must address the lonely model (in orange) tracking the storm North through Mobile. This is the CLPS model, which is only based on statistics. So from past statistics Tropical Activity usually travels northward. Since hurricanes never follow their "normal" path, this model is very rarely correct.

For intensity: Most models show a landfall between a Cat 3 and low end Cat 4. This could easily happen as many variables are in line for Ike to be a very strong storm.

In the wake of a strong hurricane hitting Texas, I have been able to review some of the past strong hurricanes in Texas history. A few to talk about...
Ike has a very simliar journey as a hurricane in 1919. This storm hit just south of Corpus Christi and killed nearly 1000 people including about 700 in sea vessels. In 1961 Hurricane Carla hit Texas with max winds of 150mph and a pressure of 931mb. Only 46 lives were lost because of the early preparations. Also, Hurricane Allen hit Brownsville, Texas, in 1980 after reaching an extremely low pressure of 899mb.
Many of Texas' most powerful hurricanes made landfall within the first two weeks of September, which just happens to be the similar time period of Ike.

Landfall is expected very early Saturday morning. This could very well be the time when we are all hoping Texas residents are safe and sound.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

River Update

Leaf River Forecast: McLain, MS

Some people have asked about river flooding within the last few days. I believe all of the rivers in our region are back below flooding stage except for the Leaf River near McLain. I'm sure some of us did see some river flooding after Gustav's major rain, but we should all be back to normal.
The Leaf River in McLain should be below flood stage by tomorrow.

Monday, September 8, 2008

9/08 Ike Update

As we have discussed this past weekend, Ike's track has slowly moved westward. The NHC has released a track tonight with a landfall around Corpus Christi, TX, on Saturday evening. I am not surprised with their new track b/c most of the models have moved through Texas all day. One interesting note, several models have Ike taking a NNW track into the Eastern Gulf before taking a hard left westward towards Texas. The strong turn to the west is a rare output from most models, but it is amazing to see solid agreement between the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF.

This new track for Ike is a relief to many here in MS, but we certainly do not wish Ike on anybody. Ike can easily drop to a tropical storm by tomorrow, but the Gulf will provide ample strengthening to see a strong Hurricane make landfall by the weekend. Of course, Dolly disturbed South Texas earlier in the season as a Cat 2 before landfall.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

9/07 Forecast Discussion

Our forecast for the next few days looks warm and beautiful. A good chance of sunshine with a mix of clouds will be our forecast into Wednesday/Thursday, but the slight chance of afternoon showers will allow me to keep a a spot of showers in the forecast. Expect highs in the low 90s through at least Wednesday, but Thursday we could see temps lower a bit due to the influence of Ike's cloud cover. Also the chance of rain will increase later in the week as we slower enter in the outer bands of Ike.

The latest model runs continue to show a similar forecast to yesterday's output. In fact, if we look at the model runs within the last 48 hours, we can see the models have slowly shifted more west towards TX. Although earlier today the HWRF was still showing a MS Coast landfall, but the last update shows a very similar track as Gustav with a SW Louisiana track.
I previously talked about my concerns with the ridge breaking down earlier than the models anticipate, and I still have a slight concern with the models forecast of the future front. Although my concern is now looking at a track into the middle of the TX coast or SW Louisiana. The break down of the ridge seems to be lagging, which will allow Ike to move into the Western Gulf, but an early break down will allow a SW Louisiana landfall.
Even though I talk about a long westward track, I must still recognize the chance of Ike moving northward into the AL/FL coast. Many forecasters are still up in the air at this point.

Ike's strength:
Ike is losing strength as I type. The influence of Ike's movement over Cuba is diminshing the overall strength of the storm. In fact, Ike is expected by many to become a Cat 1 after moving past Cuba by mid-day Tuesday. Once entering the Gulf, models show intensification reaching a Cat 3 by Thursday and at landfall. The Shear and SST (Sea Surface Temperature) is prime for strengthening in the Gulf. Only 10 to 15kts wind shear is forecast for the Gulf.

Thanks for checking in! Hope you have a good week!

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Issues with Ike

The latest model runs have moved. This tropical season is very unique.

Anyway, the models are now showing something interesting. If you remember me discussing earlier, a major player in directing Ike within the Eastern Gulf is the influence of the trough moving across the country by mid-week. Well now the major global models like GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and European show a western track simliar to the path of Edouard by skimming along the Gulf Coast line and heading into Texas. This new model run is very reflective to the timing of the front, trough, moving through the country. Models have now slowed the progression of the trough, which allow the Ridge, high, maintain longer control on Ike's westward movement. This is a huge note to make. The timing of the trough is a serious forecasting assesment for the future track of Ike. As long as the high pressure system is established over the Northeast US the movement of Ike will be westward, but the forecast front will quickly break down the High.

For instance, if the front moves through the Central Plains on Wednesday, then we should expect Ike to make landfall between the FL Panhandle and New Orleans. But if the front is slower in progression then we could see Ike follow a West track toward a Western Gulf landfall by late next weekend or around Sept. 15.

A big situation has arisen in forecasting offices throughout the Gulf. All news stations along the Gulf from TX to FL will be keeping a good eye on Ike.

On another note...
The forecast for tomorrow, Sunday, is beautiful. In fact, the next few days seem to be filled with a pleasant "summertime" flow. We will see a good chunk of sunshine, but we might also start seeing those popup afternoon thunderstorms by the middle of the week. The forecast of Ike definitely influences our late-week forecast.

Thanks for stopping in tonight! Have a good Sunday!


I want first apologize for my absence from the blog these past couple of days. I was able to take a little breather after our extensive Gustav coverage. My thanks goes out to all of you who emailed me with your questions about Gustav, and I was really proud of our whole news station during the Gustav event.

As for now, I'm sure you have already been told about our new friend "Ike". At the 4pm update he has now strengthened to 135 mph, which makes it a Category 4. This intensification is clearly connected to a low shear value of 20kts and, of course, the movement into warmer water. The next 24 hours could see even more intensification, but the biggest story will be the land interference of Cuba. Cuba, once again, has claimed prime real estate to diminish the intensity of Hurricane Ike, but the amount of loss Ike will lose from land interference is a little uncertain. The 2nd biggest story is the models continuation to push Ike westward into the center of the Gulf.

My thoughts:
I feel certain about a Gulf entry for Ike, but I am not completely sold on a similar location as Gustav. Gustav ran right through the middle of the Gulf in a NW fashion, but my early thoughts keep Ike on the Eastern side of the Gulf. I'm basing this thought on the models showing a trough pushing through the nation Tuesday through Thursday. This front will break down the ridge and allow Ike to make a Northern turn into a region of lower, or weaker, pressure. Without a strong push from a solid ridge I am not comfortable forecasting a "Center of the Gulf" forecast for Ike. Remember, hurricanes will always take the path of least resistance. The path of least resistance is always found away from a ridge, or high pressure. Ike's westward movement will be hard to continue without the influence of a ridge as forecast by mid-week. Fronts break down ridges. My early thoughts on landfall look at the Tallahassee through New Orleans coastline.

Although please remember many things can still mix up this forecast. Several factors are waiting to be nailed down after Ike makes landfall on Cuba. Ike is a threat to the Gulf Coast region, but Cuba will definitely have severe destruction.

I will update you more later.
Please feel free to email me your thoughts

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

9/02 Rain Totals

Gustav Rain Totals: (as of 7:30pm)

WDAM-TV: 4.64"
Laurel/Hatt Airport: 3.94"
Bobby Chain Airport (hattiesburg): 6.26"
Pascagoula: 4.99"
McComb: 7.33"
Jackson: 1.52"
Meridian: 0.87"

McComb topping 7" and Hattiesburg topping 6" is really incredible. Of course we will see some more rainfall for the Hattiesburg area and Jackson/McComb area.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Overnight Gustav Updates

All Gustav updates can be followed through our website message board, instant messaging, and our on-air weather updates at the top of every hour.

I will update the Blog Tuesday afternoon/evening with new information. Thank you

8/31 Video Blog

8/31 Gustav this afternoon

Velocity: 18mph NW
Pressure: 957mb

The models have shifted a little bit to the West, but this doesn't change the landfall very much.  We are still looking at experiencing tropical storm force winds from Forrest and Jones county.  

8/31 Gustav in the Gulf

The big news this morning is Gustav's weakening.  Apparently the western tip of Cuba dealt Gustav a higher card than anticipated for weakening.  Stats:

Winds: 120mph
Pressure: 960mb
Velocity: NW 17mph

After a quick calculation, Gustav will make landfall in about 19 hours (Mon 5AM) if the system maintains constant speed.  Although early predictions suggest a slowing down before landfall.  The slow movement at landfall will cause major problems because Hurricane winds can pound Louisiana cities for several hours.  

With Gustav moving quicker than anticipated...I would expect our forecast this afternoon to see some outer bands from the storm, and conditions should decrease throughout the night tonight for those along the coast and northward.  
At this current point in Gustav's life Tropical storm winds extend 200 miles from the center of rotation, which means a landfall around Houma, LA, puts Forrest and Jones County on the fringe of 39+ mph winds.  

More to come later.....

Saturday, August 30, 2008

8/30 Gustav Update 2

The forecast track has not changed much. In fact, I have been watching the last 24 hour satellite loop and become a little uneasy about the northward movement. As Gustav punched through Cuba, the system has made more of a northern turn, but the hurricane recon aircraft still reports a northwest movement at 15mph. During this time I still have to trust the future strengthening of the High over the Great Lakes by Sunday night. Once the high becomes involved we should really begin to see a true NW movement towards SE Louisiana.

The eye did slightly decrease in stature while rolling over Cuba, but Gustav merely maintained it's strong Cat 4 strength. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a Cat 5 tomorrow morning, but the Cat 5 status is expected to diminish within 24 hours of development.

I will have more for you in the morning.

Please feel to email me for discussion at

8/30 Gustav

This is an image from our Mississippi Power Titan Radar at 2pm where you can clearly see the eye of Gustav about to move across Cuba.

Gustav has finally come around to it's projected "mega" performance, and, just like Katrina, we saw rapid intensification in a short time. Here Gustav has increased from a Cat 1 of 80mph to a Cat 4 with 145 mph winds within the last 12 hours. Also in the same time frame the pressure has continued to drop from 975mb to 945mb. Now let me remind you, a hurricane is labeled a Category 5 when the winds are greater than 155mph and the central pressure is below 920mb. I tell you this because we have a very good chance of seeing Gustav become a Category 5 sometime tonight.

Please tune in to tonight's 6 and 10 newscast where I will break down some new updates. I will also be updating this blog more frequently from today till Gustav makes landfall.

Please feel free to email me your thoughts, tips, suggestions, pictures, and/or discussion topics at