Tuesday, September 29, 2009


Finally the muggies and rain are gone for awhile! Autumn weather will be around in the Pine Belt for the next few days. One of my favorite meteorologist on this planet is Bob Breck. He is the chief weathercaster at Fox8 in New Orleans and he says that our hurricane threat for this year is pretty much over. Feel free to visit and read his blogs at bobbreck.blogspot.com. I have watched his broadcasts since he first came to New Orleans in 1978. I have temendous faith in his forecasting ablilities and his opinions. Give it a shot!

Monday, September 28, 2009

Big Change Coming

The weather moving into the Pine Belt this Monday evening is going to be a big change from what we have grown accustom to. Starting Tuesday morning you should notice cooler weather with lows in the lower 50s and highs Tuesday afternoon should max out around 80. This weather should stick around at least for a few days, but come Friday more rain could be in store.

Enjoy it while it last!


Sunday, September 27, 2009

Finally, a Cold Front

After an abnormally wet month in September, the month is ending with a very pleasant weather trend. The skies have cleared today after a weak front moved through yesterday. In fact, yesterday will most likely be our last rain for the month. Another, stronger, cold front will push through Monday evening. This will setup Fall-like weather. Temps Monday and Tuesdays nights will drop into the 50's, and Wednesday morning could see some temps at, or near, the upper 40's.

The pattern will oscillate into another front pushing through Friday. At this time, it looks like some showers could come around late Thursday as the front will progress through Friday morning. This will leave rain chances only on Thursday and Friday, but I'm leaving room for model error on timing 5 days away from the event. Also, the exact movement of the low pressure system is key to our precipitation forecast.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

First day of Fall...Tuesday

Well the first day of Fall will be Tuesday, but I'm sorry for the un-falllike weather pattern. A good cold front would be a good entrance into Fall, but we will be stuck in the ways of a muggy afternoons. Our weather setup has us right between a Low in the central plains and a weak High over the Northern Gulf. I saw "weak" because it's not well defined in the lower levels. Afternoon showers can still occur with this weather setup...even though a High system is near. My long range forecast has confidence in a cool front pushing through late next weekend. This will knock out the humid weather for a few days, but thats a forecast 8 days away.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Forecast changes ahead

Looks like the wet trend will continue into next week, but a few things will vary the rain chances ahead. A big trough is forming near the state of Washington, and this will play an influence in our forecast by midweek. Models currently keep this system to our West, and the placement of a weak High will create an area of suppression (or non lift) to occur in our region within the lower levels. Also the upper level mechanism will be lacking starting late Tuesday, which will begin to drop the confidence in rainfall.

Even though these mechanisms will setup for a lack of rain, we can still see showers develop within these circumstances. It's always interesting to see how models forecast the spread of rain in Mississippi while we are in this setup, but we'll have to keep a close eye on the day-to-day changes in the atmosphere to see what happens with the results of transition away from the Low Pressure-driven forecast we've been under recently.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Showers possible-no cool air anytime soon!

A warm and humid air mass continues to dominate our weather pattern here in the Pine Belt and will do so for the next several days. Expect a good chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms today and most likely again on Saturday. Highs for the weekend will be in the 80s and lows around 70. When is it going to cool down ? Models indicate that a change may be coming by the middle or latter parts of next week or at least around October 1st. Have a great weekend ! Rex

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Humid !!!

Humid weather is here to stay for awhile. We will run the risk of mainly afternoon showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm for the next few days as a pesky low pressure area drifts to the north of our area. Highs for the next seven days will be in the 80s and lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. When will it turn cool again ? Colder air is building in Canada and if we see a pattern shift, some of that cool air may spill into the our neck of the woods by the middle of next week! Keep your fingers crossed ! Rex

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Light Showers continue

Light showers was the main weather headline here in the Pine Belt. The rain totals in the area were mainly all around 0.10", which well defines "light" showers. Although we only recorded 0.02" at the station. A similar story will arise tomorrow with scattered showers.

A Low pressure system will continue to move North into the Red River Region (Texarkana) into Sunday, but this continues to put us in a rainy pattern. I'll expect the wet pattern to stick around for most of the week, but GFS depicts a drier end of the week. ECMWF computer model shows an extended wet pattern, but I believe the influence of a developing tropical low near the Bahamas will help turn our atmosphere a little more wet to close out next week.

...we'll watch and see

Friday, September 11, 2009

Keep an umbrella handy for the weekend !

A wet weekend is still forecast for our area. Low pressure in the Gulf is expected to send plenty of moisture into the Pine Belt for the next few days resulting in good rain chances through at least Sunday. Several inches are possible and that is good news! Will the system become tropical in nature? Not sure yet but we will continue to monitor here in the weather office! Have a great weekend ! Rex

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Wet weekend likely!

Low pressure is still forecast to form in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next few days and that should send plenty of moisture into our area resulting in periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend. Some rainfall predictions range from 2-4 inches locally. This is still a developing weather situation and we will update as more information becomes available. Rex

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Wet weekend possible ?

A tropical low is likely to form in the western Gulf of Mexico by the weekend and it could bring some heavy rain to the Pine Belt for Saturday and Sunday. Of course at this stage of the game it is too early to say exactly how strong the system will be or the exact track. It appears the low will form near Brownsville, Texas and it may move north or northeast. The further north and east the system tracks will determine on the amount of rain that we get here in our area. We will continue to monitor the situation and update the blog accordingly. Rex

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Fred not a threat !

Tropical Storm Fred is in the far Atlantic off the African coast and is forecast to begin a northward track that will keep it far away from the U.S. Our weather for the next few days is forecast to be warm with only slim chances for a shower. As we head towards the weekend, however, rain chances are expected to increase. Highs for the next few days will range from the upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the 60s. Patchy fog is also possible again Wednesday morning !Rex

Monday, September 7, 2009

Labor Day showers !

Showers and a possible isolated thunderstorm will likely form over some portions of the Pine Belt this afternoon. Any showers that do form will dissipate when the sun sets and that will give way to mostly clear skies tonight. A tropical wave near the African coast will likely become Fred sometime this week but it appears that a trough will take the storm out into the open Atlantic and not pose a threat to the U.S.-but it never hurts to keep an eye on those storms until we know for sure that they have recurved ! Have a safe and happy Labor Day 1 Rex

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Widespread rain totals and Discussion

Showers across the region today delivered over an inch for some portions of Hattiesburg and Columbia while other areas only had a trace (0.19" for us at WDAM-TV). The rain and clouds also quickly dropped the temperature to a comfortable lower 70's, and I'm sure many people enjoyed a day without temps in the upper 80's.

The humidity will continue to be around through the week. A cut-off low will rotate throught the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday then we will still encounter good upper level lift in producing scattered thunderstorms. The heating of the day will destabilize the atmosphere and aid in pop-up showers in the afternoon.

Although Monday and Tuesday forecast seem rather slim on the rain chances. Expect today's rain showers to be the most abundant for the next couple of days, but another similar wet trend could be next weekend as well.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Wet labor Day weekend ?

Rain chances are pretty slim for today and tonight-about 20%-but the chances increase a bit for Saturday afternoon-around 50%. Will the game at U.S.M. escape ? Probably for the most part since the game starts at 6:00 PM hopefully most of the showers will have ended. For Sunday and Labor Day it looks kinda wet at this time with 60% chances for both days. Highs will be in the 80s for the next few days with lows in the 60s to near 70. Rex

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Not much rain expected today !

Not much if any rain is expected this afternoon. We should top out in the upper 80s. Partly cloudy and mild tonight with lows in the mid 60s. A slightly better chance for a shower on Friday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Looking ahead to next week-a very strong cold front may sweep through on Friday! I will keep you posted ! Rex

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

The name is Erika

Clouds have built quickly into the area today from the East. We normally don't have an easterly flow at this time of the year, but an inverted trough helps transfer today's activity. Moisture will continue to increase in the midlevels throughout the day, but I don't expect any shower activity.

Watching the tropics:
Tropical Storm Erika is holding onto to Tropical Storm status with a weakening trend. Erika doesn't have much movement with upper levels winds calm at this time. So the forecast doesn't move the storm very far Northwest in the next 5 days. Model forecast track and intensity are very diverse at this point. A strong models consensus is yet to be seen, and GFS has the system maintain a weak intensity but entering the Gulf in a week. Canadian turns Erika North at the Bahamas to impact the East coast. NoGaps pulls the system more to the East...similar to Bill. And our trusty European model takes Erika along the east coast.

The intensity models also range greatly on Erika. As seen by the image...
So much is to say about this storm in the next few days. We'll have to wait on the intensity. NHC keeps it a Tropical Storm Through 5 days out.

My thoughts on Erika:
As of today, I think the weak Ridge will remain in place to cause Erika to move more westerly, but I feel like it's still an east coast storm. Erika's intensity and makeup will waiver a good bit in the next few days with disrupting shear and dry air inhibiting growth. But much is yet to be determined.

Enjoy the day!

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Goodbye August...poetic vibe

As of now, Invest 94 looks very symmetric and has good banding on satellite imagery. This afternoon I wouldn't be surprised to see A tropical depression out of this storm, but the future life of this storm is still uncertain.

Otherwise, the meteoroligical fall starts today with an easy/breezy greeting. Low moisture and a dry breeze from the North makes for beautiful weather conditions.

As we close the book on a below normal August, it's time to pull some notes about the month in review. The average temperature was slightly below normal, and the total rain data was down nearly 2 inches. Highest temperature of 96 was found on the 7th and 14th, and the lowest temperature of 58 recorded on the 24th. Highest peak wind of 53 mph was recorded on August 4th. *All of these numbers come from Bobby L. Chain airport.

Now as we jump into September, I think there is no better way than stating what Chicago Area Forecaster wrote in a very poetic way in a discussion early today....

...ODE TO SUMMER 2009...