Friday, July 30, 2010

Dangerous Heat This Weekend !!!

A large and very hot high pressure system is building into the deep south and will create dangerously high temps for the weekend ! Highs are forecast to reach the low 100's and lows in the upper 70s. Rain chances are slim and any showers that do form will only provide a little relief from the heat. Please remember to check on folks that may not have ways to stay cooler and remember to drink plenty of fluids and avoid the outdoors especially during the afternoon hours. The tropics are still slowly trying to come alive and we will continue to monitor a few tropical waves in the Atlantic and the Caribbean for any signs of intensification. Have a great weekend and stay cool !! Rex

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Rumors of heat-hurricanes and the upcoming winter!!!

The heat is on here in the Pine Belt and we could see triple digits by the Saturday ! Little chance for rain is in the forecast for the next few days. We will run the risk of one or two afternoon showers and storms but they will be few and far between. Two tropical waves bear watching in the Caribbean and the far Atlantic. One of these may develop into a named storm in about five days. Also, next week I will be releasing my winter forecast for 2010-2011. Rex

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Hot weather to continue !!!

Hot weather is here and will be here for awhile !!! Expect highs on Thursday to reach the mid 90s and upper 90s and even possibly triple digit numbers Friday on into early next week. There will be a small chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day. Lows will also come up as well and at times will only fall to the upper 70s at night !! The tropics remain very quiet for the time being, but I am still predicting a major upswing in actvity over the next two weeks. Rex

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Hot weather to continue !!

Hot weather will rule our neck of the woods for the remainder of the week. By Thursday expect highs to reach the upper 90s and lows in the 70s. These temps are likely into at least Saturday. We will have a slight chance for afternoon showers and storms Thursday into the weekend but Wednesday looks dry. The tropics will finally become active next week as dry air that is currently inhibiting development fades and is replaced with more moist air. Stay tuned !! Rex

Monday, July 26, 2010

Tweeting again!!!

For those of you that followed my tweets- there was a problem and I had to change accounts. I can now be found on Gmail. My user name is Rexwdam.

More showers expected.

Much needed showers and possible thunderstorms will develop in our area today and again on Tuesday. Some of the afternoon downpours could be heavy. As we work our way into the middle and latter parts of the work week we will note a decrease in our rain chances but our temps will be warming up. Highs today through the entire week will be in the 90s and lows in the muggy mid 70 degree range. The tropics have quieted down for a few days but I expect that over the next few weeks we will see a marked increase in activity. Rex

Friday, July 23, 2010

Boonie update.

Little has changed in the forecast track for Bonnie and the storm is still forecast to move ashore in southeast Louisiana sometimes Sunday. It may actually weaken to depression status or tropical wave status before coming ashore. There is a slight chance it may intensify over the open gulf if a large area of low pressure moves away from it. We will continue to monitor the situation and will keep you posted. At this time it appears that we may see some much needed rain from the system. We will keep you posted on WDAM-TV and Have a great weekend!!! Rex

The latest of "Bonie"

As of this 7:00 AM post, Tropical Storm Bonnie remains a very weak and small tropical cyclone. The forecast still calls for the storm to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early Saturday and continue on a track that will take it into south central Louisiana sometimes on Sunday. At this time the storm is not forecast to reach hurricane strength but there is still a chance that could happen. We will hopefully get some much needed rain from the system. We will continue to keep you updated on WDAM-TV and Rex

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Tropical Depression # 3 Forms !!!

The National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on T.D. # 3 that has formed in the lower Bahamas. Computer forecasts indicate the system will become Tropical Storm "Bonnie" later today or by no later than Friday. The storm is forecast to move in a west northwest direction that will evenutally bring it into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. As far as strength, it appears at this time the system will not become a hurricane unless and it can lose the influence of a large upper level low to it's west. If that occurs, then the storm will gain strength and possibly attain hurricane status. All interests in our area should pay close attention to all statements being issued by the National Hurricane Center over the next several days. There is also another depression that may be forming in the southwestern gulf but should have no impact on our weather as it is forecast to move into Mexico. Stay tuned. Rex

Urgent!!! New information in !!!

The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing advisories on either a tropical depression or Tropical Storm "Bonnie" at 10:00 AM local time. The disturbance in the Bahamas has now formed a closed circulation. We should have much better information on what is going on as soon as the hurricane hunters get down there but it looks like the NHC will issue tropical storm watches or warnings for the Bahamas and southern Florida at that time. Stay tuned for sure !!! Rex

The tropics work in mysterious ways !!!

When I went on air this morning at 5:30 AM the tropical disturbance that we have been tracking in the southeastern Bahamas was only given a 40% chance of developing. When the new information from the National Hurricane Center arrived at 7:00 AM everything had totally changed !! Now the NHC is giving the system a 70% chance of developing into a depression or storm at anytime during the next 48 hours. An aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon to determine what is going on down there. Many of the reliable computer models take the system into the northern gulf over the next five days. Please keep in mind the tropical storm intensity forecasts aren't very good even during these days of great technological tools that are used. My advice is to stay tuned !!!! Rex

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Bonnie ????

The National Hurricane Center gives a strong tropical disturbance near the Dominican Republic a 70% chance that it will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next 48 hours. All reliable models indicate the system will move west northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico over the next five days. It is much to early to predict what exactly will be the future course or strength of the expected storm but I sincerely advise that folks in our area keep posted on the latest information concerning this developing situation. Rex

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Strong tropical disturbance bears watching !

A very strong tropical disturbance near Puerto Rico bears watching over the next few days as it moves toward the west northwest towards the lower Bahamas. Many of the reliable models bring the system into the Gulf by the weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a medium chance "40%" of developing into a tropical cyclone. We will contiune to monitor the disturbance for any signs of organization. Rex

Monday, July 19, 2010

Hot and humid weather to continue-tropics getting more active.

Although we will run a chance for chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and storms each day this week- the main concern will be temps. Highs starting the week off today will top out in the lower 90s. Mid 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday and generally upper 90s for the latter part of the week on into the weekend. Lows will remain in the 70s all week. As far as the tropics are concerned. We are watching two systems-one is in the central Caribbean and the other near the U.S. Virgin islands. Both bear watching but any development is expected to be slow to occur. Please keep in mind that we are now entering the most active part of the hurricane season and we must keep a constant eye on the tropics. I will let you know if any system shows good promise of developing. Rex

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Humid weather to persist-but with better shower chances !

That very strong ridge of high pressure that kept us very hot and mainly dry for the past few days is slowly weakening and will allow for much better shower and thunderstorm chances for us beginning Friday and lasting into the weekend. Highs will generally stay in the lower 90s and lows in the mid 70s through that time period. Chance for rain is 60% for both Friday and Saturday and 50% on Sunday. The showers will mainly form in the afternoon and early evening although a few earlier in the day showers can't be ruled out. The tropics are now beginning to heat up !!!!!! A tropical wave currently in the far eastern Atlantic shows some promise of becoming better organized over the next few days and will be monitored for development. I truly think this is the beginning of what will become a very active season. STAT TUNED !!! Rex

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Hot-humid and boring-not a bad thing !!!

We are in a rather non-dramatic weather pattern right now !! High pressure is keeping the area on the hot and humid side and keeping things calm in the Gulf, which is great news. We will see a gradual increase in our afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances as we work into the weekend and that may lead to some slightly less higher max temps in the afternoons but it will still remain hot and humid never the less. I still firmly think that we will soon see a major upturn in the tropics !! Stay tuned !!! Rex

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

High pressure-good times !!

We have a very strong and rather large area of high pressure over the Gulf and that is keeping things very quiet weather wise. That is great news for us for two reasons. Number one-we don't have to worry about any tropical storm threats for the NEAR future and number two-the calmer weather allows for containment efforts to continue on the Deepwater Horizon spill. High pressure is surely being our friend right now! Let's hope that continues for some time to come !! Not much more to share but the fact is that the hot temps will continue into the forecastable future. We may see upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. By the weekend, shower chances will increase a tad and we my top out in the mid 90s. Lows each night will remain in the mid 70s. Rex

Monday, July 12, 2010

Hot and humid!!!

High pressure is firmly in control of our weather and that means hot, humid and dry conditions at least for today and Tuesday and most likely even into Wednesday. Highs today will top out around 96 and lows for the entire week will mainly be in the 70s. Upper 90s are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. That same area of high pressure is also keeping the Gulf free from tropical weather and that's great news as they try to containe the oil spill. I fully expect the tropics to begin heating up in the next few weeks.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Tropics quiet...for now !

Hot and humid weather will prevail over the area for today into the weekend. Highs today and Saturday are expected to reach the mid 90s. We could see an isolated shower overnight with lows in the 70s. A few mainly afternoon showers and storms on Saturday but a good chance for showers and storms on Sunday. The tropics are quiet for now but a parade of tropical waves continue marching across the Atlantic and are becoming more frequent coming off the African coast. I sincerly think that we will see a huge increase in tropical activity over the next few weeks. Get ready for a long season !!! Have a great weekend !! Rex

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Heat the problem not T.D. Two !

Hot and mainly dry weather is in the forcast for today and Friday. Only a slight chance for a shower on Saturday. Highs today through Saturday will top out in the mid 90s and lows in the 70s. A better chance for showers on Sunday with highs back to around 90. Then mid 90s return for early next week. Tropical Depression Number Two has formed in the extreme western Gulf but poses only a slight problem for lower Texas and upper Mexico. It could strengthen to tropical storm levels near the coast before moving inland and if that does occur it would be named "Bonnie". In any event it poses no threat to Mississippi. Rex

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Hotter and drier about to arrive !!!

Much drier air will begin to filter into our area tonight. By Thursday we can look for mostly sunny skies and hot temps with highs in the mid 90s with no rain expected. The same holds true for Friday as well. By the weekend we will see a little more moisture move back into the picture with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the 70s. A quick peak at the tropics shows only one real area of interest and that is in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This tropical wave has a chance to strengthen but the same weather feature that will bring us the hot and dry weather pattern will also likely keep any tropical threats well to our west at least for the time being. Rex

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Rain today and Wednesday-hotter and drier air coming !

Although rain chances are very high today-90-100% and 60% on Wednesday, high pressure is forecast to build in from the east and that will heat us up and dry us out for Thursday into at least the Friday time frame. Actually hot weather is forecast for Saturday as well with only a slight chance for an afternoon shower. High by the end of the week should be in the mid 90s with lows remaining in the 70s. As far as the tropics are concerned, we are still watching a fairly active tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea this morning. Computer forecast models indicate some development of the system. The same area of high pressure that is forecast to bring hotter and drier weather to the area will also likely push any developing tropical systems to our west-more towards Texas. We will just have to monitor the situation as things can and do often change rapidly in our forecasts. Taking a look at satellite pictures over Africa this morning I can see several tropical waves heading for the Atlantic. I think as we get deeper into the season, we will see more and more of these waves roll off Africas coast and gr0w into some pretty powerful hurricanes ! The season has been forecast to be exceptionally active and I certainly beleive that it will be. Stay tuned ! Rex

Monday, July 5, 2010

Is Tropical Storm Bonnie about to make landfall?

Early Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said the low that was bringing rain to south Louisiana and Mississippi had a "near 0% probability" of becoming a tropical cyclone. However, by Monday evening ( just hours later), the NHC made an about-face, stating that the same low, now has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

The low is currently 50 mile SSE of Morgan City Louisiana. According to the NHC, radar and satellite data indicate sustained winds near tropical-storm force strength around Terrebonne Bay.

We should hear more from the NHC shortly, but with this new data, we may see the low that we're currently getting rain from actually be upgraded to a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm.

Either which way, the Pine Belt is still pretty far from the center of this storm, so I do not anticipate a change in the classification of this weather system to have a huge impact on us. More importantly, it just goes to show you how difficult predicting the intensity of these weather events can be.

What we're watching in the Gulf...

Today (Monday) the Pine Belt has been getting a good drenching thanks to a non-tropical low centered just south of Louisiana, making it's way inland. While this low will bring "tropical like showers"to the Pine Belt, the NHC says there's a "near 0%" probability that this will become a tropical cyclone. However, we can count on off-and-on rain from this system now through Tuesday.

The other area of concern is near the Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave dubbed Invest 96 is being tracked by the NHC. There's a 30% chance this wave will become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The current models predict Invest 96 will head towards the Texas coast, a track that would put the storm closer to the oil spill site then Alex was. However, it's still very early to put much stock into that prediction, so stay tuned.

Friday, July 2, 2010

The tropics are angry !

As of this writing several models indicate that some type of low pressure will develop in the northern gulf over the weekend-but they are all over the place with strength and the direction. We will just have to wait and see what happens-so keep an eye on the weather over the weekend. Yet another tropical storm-hurricane is forecast to move into the southern gulf late next week-pretty much along the same path as Alex-but models can be totally misleading that far out-again- just stay up with the weather next week as well. This hurricane season has been forecasted to be very active and so far it seems to be on track. Please keep in mind computer model forecasts are just that-forecasts that could easily be correct or incorrect. Best advice is this- we are now heading into the heart of the hurricane season with the most active months being August and September-just hope for the best but be prepared for the worst. Have a great holiday weekend ! Rex

Thursday, July 1, 2010

More tropical troubles ?

Hurricane Alex continues to move westward in Mexico and continues to weaken but will likely bring life threatning mud slides to that area. So, what is next in the tropics ? Some models insist on a weak low pressure area developing in the northern gulf over the next few days. There is much disagreement among the reliable weather models on this feature. The best thing to do is just take a wait and see attitude towrds it. I will keep you posted on the blog to let you know what is happening or possibly about to happen in tropics now and through the entire season. Rex