Monday, July 5, 2010

Is Tropical Storm Bonnie about to make landfall?

Early Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said the low that was bringing rain to south Louisiana and Mississippi had a "near 0% probability" of becoming a tropical cyclone. However, by Monday evening ( just hours later), the NHC made an about-face, stating that the same low, now has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

The low is currently 50 mile SSE of Morgan City Louisiana. According to the NHC, radar and satellite data indicate sustained winds near tropical-storm force strength around Terrebonne Bay.

We should hear more from the NHC shortly, but with this new data, we may see the low that we're currently getting rain from actually be upgraded to a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm.

Either which way, the Pine Belt is still pretty far from the center of this storm, so I do not anticipate a change in the classification of this weather system to have a huge impact on us. More importantly, it just goes to show you how difficult predicting the intensity of these weather events can be.

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