Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Isolated Afternoon Showers

In the coming days a front will stall over North Mississippi and a series of disturbances will roll through. As a result we will have a chance of isolated showers during the evening/afternoon Thursday-Sunday. The chances will not be great (20%), but if you get caught underneath one of these isolated rainmakers you may get a decent amount of rain.

Otherwise high temps will be in the 80's lows in the 60's

-Nick

Monday, April 27, 2009

Be Our Eyes....Send it to 7

We have a great new tool that we are slowly kicking off here at WDAM that will be fantastic for the weather department. We call it "Send it to 7"... it's a new and easy way to send us weather/news/sports pics and videos.

Should you ever take a picture that you think others may want to see, you can send it to our website. It's a piece of cake... all you have to do is email your pic or video to pics@wdam.com or you can upload it by going to pics.wdam.com. Shortly after, the photo will be approved and may even end up in my weathercast.

With that said, I want everyone to think safety first. I know there's a lot of bad weather that blows through the Pine Belt and I don't want anyone to put themselves in harms way for a good photo.

I look forward to seeing your work!
-Nick

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Active in the Plains...Where's the rain?

[Sunday] Amazing! This afternoon there are currently portions of 7 states under a tornado watch right now. Thankfully, our faithful high pressure system is delivering a lot of beautiful weather for our portion of the country. We have been warmer than normal since Wednesday, which I hope you have been able to take advantage by spending time outdoors. Things look to be changing a tad this week with a trough trying to creep into Mississippi and provide some showers, but the majority of the wet weather still seems to be NW of us. Central MS might see some rain on Monday, but we might squeeze through the day without seeing any rain. The chances for rain on Monday are less the 20%, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some folks to a shower or two. Most models have pushed back the rain chances for the midweek and left us with a front moving through on Friday. Thanks for reading! -Tanner

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Warm Days Continue

The sun and warm temps will continue through the weekend. We got up to 86 today, and lower to mid 80s are expected to continue. The chance of some rain will be possible next week.

I'm working on building some new weather graphics for the website. So keep checking back over the next week.

-Nick

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Isolated Light Rain

As I mentioned in yesterdays forecast, some isolated light showers have developed as a weak cold front pushes through the Pine Belt. Since noon, we've also seen an increase in clouds associated with the front. Also, expect breezy if not windy conditions over the next 12-18 hours.

Once this front moves through, high pressure should settle to our south and help funnel in warm air. We may see temps get to the mid 80s in some spots later in the week.

-Nick

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Afternoon Thunderstorms

(Sunday 3pm) In the wake of an approaching front we have a relatively unstable atmosphere here in the Pine Belt. Temps in the mid-70's with some sun and very moist air is aiding in the formation of some isolated thunderstorms rolling across our area. In fact, SPC has issued a Tornado watch for Pearl River, Stone, George, Green, Perry, Forrest, Lamar, Jones, Wayne, Jasper, and Clarke Counties till 9PM. This isn't a classic setup for a major severe weather outbreak, but this scenario could produce high wind, hail, and even a possible tornado. No storm reports have been received so far today, but I'll be tracking this whole system till it leaves the area. Follow me on twitter at http://twitter.com/wdamtannercade

-Tanner Cade
(tcade@wdam.com)

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Thunderstorms Overnight...read on...

Didn't get to hit very many points during my forecast at 6pm, but we obviously have a good shot of thunderstorms overnight into Sunday morning. So far the models are in rare disagreement with an event less than 12 hours out. Although model consensus does agree with the cold front running through tomorrow evening. The biggest question is the exact timing and location of the overnight thunderstorms. It looks like the main moisture could be trapped by a coastal influence, but the majority of our activity will probably occur after our 10p newscast and into mid-morning. The highest instability will form at around 7am in sw miss, and this significant instability is one reason why we are under a Slight Risk of Severe activity tomorrow. This translates into "Thunderstorms capable of becoming Severe 'in nature' before Noon". This system is currently only producing major rain and isolated strong wind reports along TX/LA. -tcade@wdam.com

Friday, April 17, 2009

Rain This Weekend

(6:00pm Friday) A few very small showers have moved into the Pine Belt this evening, but I think the worst of it will hold off until Saturday. I expect the majority of Saturday's rain to run a little to our NW while we see scattered showers off and on during the day.

Early Sunday we will have a good shot at some stronger storms as the cold front finally pushes through here. We are currently under a slight risk for severe weather Sunday.

-Nick

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

It's the Sunshine Band

Welcome the sunshine back into our forecast because it will be making itself at home in our work week forecast. A cold front past through last night to knock temps down a tad and help bring a little drier air mass into Mississippi. A ridge (high pressure system) will build along the Lower MS River Valley through today. On these Thursday we could see the High diminishing a tad to pull the West Coast Low in the PIB. So rain chances are in our forecast for this weekend...sad news. But enjoy the wonderful sunshine! -tcade@wdam.com
Find me on twitter at http://twitter.com/wdamtannercade

Sunday, April 12, 2009

A look at tonight...

Showers and Thunderstorms are moving across Mississippi right now. Several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued so far today, but no reports have been reported. No reports is a good sign as usually, but I'm keeping a good idea on the storms right now to make sure nothing surprises us. The big story tonight is the activity happening right now and then another wave happening late late tonight. Storms moving eastward right now are known as elevated storms because most of the instability is rooted above the surface, and elevated storms are prone to producing hail. They also can produce very loud thunder. After midnight we expect to see surface based instability, which will be the more delicate situation. I'm still uncertain on how this first round of thunderstorms modifies the atmosphere for the surface based instability later tonight. I'll keep watching throughout the night. Stay safe and turn your weather radio on. tcade@wdam.com - Tanner Cade

Severe Activity will occur tonight

[Sunday 3:15pm] A tornado watch has already been issued for everyone west of I-59 that will last until 9pm, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the watch extended into the majority of the pine belt later this evening. Here is a quick recap on some weather terms that you might see today. A tornado watch is issued when atmospheric variables are capable of producing a tornado. A tornado warning is issued when either a radar indicates rotation or a meteorologist has confirmed a tornado.
I'll be tracking this storm system as it travels through our region starting this evening through late tonight. Please feel free to email me at tcade@wdam.com and follow my twitter updates on twitter.com/wdamtannercade. I will also turn the webcam on this evening. The main threat with this system seems to be damaging wind and hail, but I'm hoping we will all be safe as these storms come through. Thanks for following us! -Tanner Cade

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Pleasant Morning, Active Sunday Night

Easter Sunday looks to be starting off with some high level clouds building into our region, but I expect the majority of the day to be mostly cloudy. In fact, rain chances increase ahead of an approaching warm front starting in the evening. We are currently under a slight risk of severe weather for Sunday night. The slight risk is issued because of the instability forming along the onset of the frontal movement. After looking at models trends I'm seeing most models narrowing down the bulk of the rain/storms between 11pm and 7am. Now the biggest risk with the advancing line of storms will be hail and wind. Some isolated locations could see flash flooding, but the main concern is hail and wind.

We are really going to have to see how growth of the low pressure system evolves overnight tonight to really get a grasp on the behavior for this system sunday night. Right now I'm looking at some variables not matching up very well for tornadic activity, but we must always have our guard up. If something does look probable, I will be here to follow the system as it tracks through the Pine Belt. tcade@wdam.com

Friday, April 10, 2009

Storms this Evening?

(3:30pm 4/10/09) For those of you that have not been following the weather to our North today, Tennessee and N. Alabama have taken a beating. Multiple tornadoes have been reported and some reports of fatalities are coming in.

This bad weather is just ahead of a front... and that front runs all the way down to South Mississippi. The big difference... the strong storms are not down here like they are up there. Long story short... the ingredients are not the same here as they are up there.

With that said... we are not off the hook just yet. The front still has not pushed through the Pine Belt. It actually just crossed over the Mississippi River. And until it gets beyond us, we may still see some isolated storms flare up. I would predict that if we see anything flare up, it will come together quickly on the radar and happen between 5pm and 10pm tonight.

-Nick

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Big Warm-Up !

Finally the cold air is retreating to the east and today will be much warmer with highs in the mid 70s. Not as cold tonight with lows in the upper 40s. Thursday promises to be nice and dry with highs again in the mid to upper 70s. Showers and thuderstorms appear likely now on Good Friday with highs in the 70s. We may see a break in the rain on Saturday before another round reaches us on Easter Sunday. Sunday night rains may be on the heavy side. By Monday the weather system should be moving out of our area bringing a brief dry spell for Tuesday before more rain moves in on Wednesday. Rex

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

How Low? (Part Two)

(6:00pm Tuesday) Tonight the winds are lighter and the clouds are less, which indicates that we may stand a better chance than Monday night to see freezing air temps. The lack of clouds and wind offer better chances for radiation cooling but the cold air mass continues to shift east and we are on the cusp of that. In fact, our viewing area is about as far west as the freeze warning reaches.

With all that said, I'll be calling for a low of 31 tonight. I think it is still likely that some folks in the Pine Belt could see a frost, especially those in rural locations.

The official freeze warning is from 1:00am -8:00am Wednesday morning.

-Nick

Monday, April 6, 2009

How Low?

(6:00pm Monday) A freeze warning will be in place for the entire WDAM viewing area from 3:00AM until 8:00AM Tuesday morning. I'm calling for a low of 30 overnight. I believe those in and around the metro areas will be right on the cusp of freezing, but others in the rural areas will most likely fall below the freezing mark.

Two conditions that I'm watching are cloud cover and winds. Right now we have a good amount of both and that's a good thing. These conditions will aid in keeping warm air at the surface and give us a shot at staying above freezing. However, the forecast calls for the clouds to move out and the winds to die down.

Personally, I'll be taken extra care of some of my plants...
-Nick

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Cold Nights Ahead

Looks like we have a couple cold nights on our way. I've been looking at conditions back in Arkansas today to see how this cold air mass is performing to the forecast conditions. It looks like the air mass is a few degrees colder than model output statistics is forecasting. So this knowledge has allowed me to drop temps a few degrees cooler than most people are forecasting. The air mass is strong so it is expected to make it all the way to the coast, but the biggest challenge seems to be tuesday night's low forecast. Will the air mass stick around in Eastern MS? We'll face that question after tomorrow night's possible record breaking temp happens. The tough news to face will be the windy conditions through tuesday evening. Cool temps and a 10-20mph wind will equal uncomfortable conditions outside tomorrow. The reason for the wind comes as a result of the tight pressure gradient maintaining it's hold till the cold air mass exits Wednesday morning. I hope you can make it through these next couple of nights because things will warm up after Wednesday. tcade@wdam.com (you can also find me on twitter at twitter.com/wdamtannercade)

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Cold air mass heading South

Tomorrow could be a very interesting day for us here in South Mississippi. Some of us could see some light showers associated with a warm front early tomorrow morning, which will also help allow afternoon temps to near the 80 degree mark. Then during the warm afternoon, some folks in central mississippi will stumble across some small and brief thunderstorms. Here in the Pine Belt I'm thinking most of won't see much rain tomorrow afternoon, but the chance is still around for our day outlook. The biggest story in the weather world is definitely the cold air moving in on Monday. The cold air is the coldest we have seen awhile, but we must be thankful for the sun angle here in early April. Our temps could possibly be 10 degrees cooler on Monday/Tuesday if we were in January. Looks for temps at the start of the week to be in the upper 50's. The overnight temp on Monday could fall into the upper 20's, but we won't have perfect radiational cooling elements since the wind will still be above 5mph. The light breeze will help keep energy trapped near the surface (ground). So remember your flowers, vegetables, and a jacket overnight Monday and Tuesday. This cold air won't really leave until Wednesday. tcade@wdam.com

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Follow Nick/Tanner on Twitter and WDAM.com

Abundant sunshine is aiding in more instability here in South Mississippi.  We might not be able to update this blog very often today as we are very busy in the weather center.  So please check out our live streaming coverage on wdam.com and follow Tanner and Nick on Twitter: twitter.com/wdamnickortego and twitter.com/wdamtannercade.  You can also watch our twitter updates on the main weather page on the lower right side.  

Rex will be in the weathercenter through early afternoon and then Nick will be in for the handoff.  Tanner will probably be in several different locations today because he wants to follow any storms in our area to help keep you better informed.  

Some limiting factors are still uncertain as of now, but please stay connected with our complete local coverage of the weather scene here in the Pine Belt.  Thanks so much for following us today and please stay safe!  As for now please email us at rexthompson@wdam.com, nortego@wdam.com, and tcade@wdam.com.  

Take Care

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Follow us on Twitter!

Since tomorrow can easily be a big day in the weather world I need to direct your attention to Twitter. For more in-depth details concerning our weather world here in the Pine Belt make sure to follow Nick Ortego and Tanner Cade on Twitter:

twitter.com/WDAMNickOrtego
twitter.com/WDAMTannerCade

This is a great communication source to follow during severe weather events like tomorrow. Also feel free to email us at tcade@wdam.com or nortego@wdam.com

Severe Weather Event Thursday !

It is looking more and more likely that a severe weather event will occur over Mississippi during the day on Thursday. Very strong low pressure will drag a cold front during the afternoon through our area resulting in the strong possibility of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center says some of the possible tornadoes could be of the strong/long track variety. Please stay tuned to WDAM and to wdam.com for the latest on this developing weather situation. Rex

Moderate Risk for Severe Weather

The SPC has issued a moderate risk for severe weather on Thursday, and it sits right on top of Mississippi and Alabama. In short this means that there's the potential for golf ball to baseball size hail, strong damaging winds, and the potential for supercells that may produce long track tornadoes.

Now before you "head for the hills", know that the area at risk is rather large and I highly doubt that everyone in MS and AL will see weather like described above. In fact, current indicators suggest that central MS... North of 1-20 is at most risk for widespread severe weather. While in South MS, indicators suggest more isolated severe weather. The good news is that no matter where it passes in MS, it should be a daylight event.

We are still 24 hours out so everyone keep there guard up and continue to count on WDAM to bring you the latest.

-Nick