Saturday, April 11, 2009

Pleasant Morning, Active Sunday Night

Easter Sunday looks to be starting off with some high level clouds building into our region, but I expect the majority of the day to be mostly cloudy. In fact, rain chances increase ahead of an approaching warm front starting in the evening. We are currently under a slight risk of severe weather for Sunday night. The slight risk is issued because of the instability forming along the onset of the frontal movement. After looking at models trends I'm seeing most models narrowing down the bulk of the rain/storms between 11pm and 7am. Now the biggest risk with the advancing line of storms will be hail and wind. Some isolated locations could see flash flooding, but the main concern is hail and wind.

We are really going to have to see how growth of the low pressure system evolves overnight tonight to really get a grasp on the behavior for this system sunday night. Right now I'm looking at some variables not matching up very well for tornadic activity, but we must always have our guard up. If something does look probable, I will be here to follow the system as it tracks through the Pine Belt.

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