Sunday, September 21, 2008

Forecast = Sunshine

After a long and rainy day yesterday, we have plenty of sunshine in our forecast. Sunday evening there at still some showers lingering along the MS coast line, but the whole Pine Belt region is watching a beautiful sunset. Only a few very scattered clouds claim residency in the sky above, but these clouds will soon be on their way out. A major trough is moving across the NW U.S. and a major High pressure is building in the NE U.S. The trough will not influence our forecast, yet the High in the NE is expected become strong. Both the NAM and GFS models show a 1034mb High by Tuesday morning, which is about 21mb higher than the normal pressure value of 1013mb. Remember, a high pressure system relates to clear and sunny weather. We will see this High influencing our weather through atleast the midweek point. On Friday we might start to see clouds forming across our area from the East.

This high located to our NE will allow us to have mainly an east wind, but not until Thursday night could we see our driest conditions. Even though we will have clear skies, which helps remove longwave radiation (solar radiation) from the ground, we will still have dewpoint temps in the lower 60s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will help keep our Low around 63 Monday night, but by Thursday Dewpoint temps could easily be in the 50s. Ironically, as soon as we see our driest conditions we could start to see more moisture from the baroclinic low forming over the carolinas. This low can do several things, but the GFS shows us a westward movement over AL/GA by Friday. This low will be a challenge because I will also be studying the relation of a new tropical wave (possible Tropical Storm Kyle) by late this week. This tropical wave is expected to move North from it's current position over Puerto Rico.

We will talk more about the late week forecast tomorrow and Tuesday.

Enjoy Monday!

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