Sunday, August 16, 2009

Do you know your A-B-C's?

Ana, Bill, Claudette makes for a very busy weekend. Raise your hand if you picked Claudette to be the first landfall system? Reminds me of my luck in March Madness brackets.

Claudette hasn't quite made landfall tonight at 10:30pm, but Fort Walton Beach is on the doorstep for the main center of circulation in the next hour. After landfall, the system will disipate quickly while we maintain our position on the "weak" "dry" side of the storm. We'll probably need to be on the watch for a possible spin-up tornado which we usually find with landfall systems.

Next, Ana could easily be downgraded to a tropical wave on Monday. The storm has been falling apart all day and will struggle to find any regeneration in the next few days. But as a meteorologist friend said, "Don't sleep on Ana!" Things could pop once it enters the Gulf.

Finally, Bill is the real tropical storm the nation should be watching. The best news is declaring the forecast track seems to take the north in the Atlantic after a break in the atlantic ridge. A Gulf entry is near unlikely at this point with most models making a consensus on a Northward track starting midweek. The biggest U.S. risk should be the Carolinas and eastern coast line next weekend. But Bill has a classic setup and will steadily build into a Hurricane by tomorrow. The system is liable to reach Category 4 limits by Friday, but some limiting factors of shear and dry air could hinder the explosion of intensity.

That's your A-B-Cs.

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