Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Tropical Depression Two and More

Latest Tropical Depresssion Two advisory shows little strengthening in the last few hours, but the next few days could spell doom for the system. It is currently battling mid-level dry air and will soon move northwest into more shear (competing winds). So the end result appears to be a fall-out for TD2, but we will keep an eye out if anything else changes in the westward track.

Next, we must talk about what could form behind TD2. Popular models like the GFS and European (EMCWF) agree on a potent tropical cyclone developing off the coast of Africa in a few days. The formation area is between 10-15N Lattitude lines where shear values are remarkably low right now, which is perfect for tropical development. Also, the track seems to be west nearing the Caribbean by mid-week next week.

We'll keep watching things for you...

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