Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Hurricane Alex Grows Stronger !

Hurricane Alex continues to strengthen this moring in the western Gulf of Mexico. A the present Alex is a category 1 hurricane but the central pressure is falling and the hurricane is forecast to continue to gain strength until landfall which is expected late tonight or early Thursday morning in extreme NE Mexico or SE Texas. It is not out of the question that the hurricane may reach category 3 status prior to landfall which would make it a major hurricane. We are very fortunate the the hurricane is not approaching us over the oil spill area. Rex

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Alex nears hurricane strength !

Tropical storm Alex has 70 mph sustained winds this morning-that is 4 mph less than what it needs to become a hurricane and that is expected later this morning or by the early afternoon. It still appears that the storm will come ashore late this week in northern Mexico or southern Texas. The circualtion with the storm is rather large and as it gets stronger seas of around 9 feet are likely to move into the oil spill clean up area and that could shut that down for a day or two. The good news for us is that we will most likely not get a direct hit from Alex. We may very well see an increase in our rain chances from the storm as well as front to the north of us and the normal seabreeze front that comes off the gulf every summer. So for today into the next several days expect better chances of rain. By the time we reach the holiday weekend we will start to see our rain chances decreasing. Please keep in mind that Alex is just the first of many storms that may affect the gulf coastal region this season as it is forecast to really be above normal. We feel we have lucked out with this particular storm and lets keep our fingers and toes crossed that our luck holds out the entire season. I will keep you posted!!!! Rex

Monday, June 28, 2010

Latest on Alex

Tropical Storm Alex continues to gain strength over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The forecast track of the storm still takes it inland on the upper Mexican coast or lower Texas coast sometime later this week. At this time it appears the track of the storm will not have much effect on our weather here in the Pine Belt other than maybe enhanced showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours when maximum heating occurs and with the possible additional moisture in the atmosphere around the circulation of the storm. If there is a more northward turn of Alex later in the week then we may see a marked increase in clouds and showers and storms. At this time it appears the storm will stay well to our west. A few models want to try and take Alex on a more northerly track. We will continue to track the system and update this post blog often. Rex

Friday, June 25, 2010

Birth of a tropical cyclone!!!!!

The National Hurricane Center has just released a statement indicating that the strong tropical wave in the western Caribbean may now be forming into a tropical depression. A hurricane hunter plane has been dispatched to the area to find out for sure. If it does develop we will know it as Alex. Where will it eventually end up ? It is much too early to know but it certainly appears that it will move into the Gulf over the weekend. Stay tuned ! Rex

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Tropical cyclone formation may occur in 48 hours.

Although the tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean became a little more organized overnight- there has been little change as of the 7:00 AM update from the National Hurricane Center. Conditions still appear favorable for development of the system during the next 48 hours as it moves towards the northwest Caribbean. The system bears very close watching as it will be moving in to more favorable environmental conditions. Stay tuned. Rex

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Still watching the tropics closely!

A strong tropical wave continues westward through the west central Caribbean Sea this morning and could be showing some signs of intensification. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a moderate chance of developing as it moves into more favorable environmental conditions over the western Carribean over the next 48 hours. Many computer forecast models are now picking up on the feature. One model even bring it to the southeast coast of Louisiana on Monday as a strong tropical storm. It is way to early to specualate on where the storm will go or how strong it will be before an actual low pressure center develops with the wave. After this happens, if it does happen, then we will get a much better handle on the future track and intensity of it. I will continue to monitor the system and gives further updates as i get them. Rex

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Higher rain chances today- still watching strong tropical wave!

We have a better chance for seeing more showers and thunderstorms in the area later this morning and into the afternoon today as a disturbance moves through. Weather Service has placed the chances at 70%. Highs today should only reach the lower 90s due to the expected cloud cover and rain. As the sun sets and we loose our afternoon heating we expect to clear overnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Now on to the tropics. We are still watching a strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea as is slowly moves west northwest. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 40% chance of developing into an organized tropical system over the next few days. We will continue to monitor the system and bring you updates as often as needed. Rex

Monday, June 21, 2010

Summer arrives-tropical problems next ?

Summer officially began at 6:23 this morning and all indications are that we are in for a very hot one. N0w on to the next issue. A tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean is slowly moving west northwest and several reliable computer models are hinting at the possibility of development of the system by the end of the week or weekend-and some models indicate that it will be in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is way to early to know what will happen with this weather system, but it certainly bears watching. Stay tuned !!!! Rex

Friday, June 18, 2010

Hot and humid weekend- still watching a tropical wave.

Hot and humid weather will prevail for the entire weekend with a chance for a mainly afternoon and early evening shower or thunderstorm. Any showers or storms that do develop will quickly die off after sunset leaving us with a partly cloudy and humid night with lows in the 70s. As for as the tropics are concerned, we are still watching a tropical wave that is now entering the eastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions are not favorable for development at this time but we will continue to track it. As far as the Gulf of Mexico- it remains free of any tropical activity and none is expected over the weekend...and speaking of weekends, have a great one !!! Rex

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Just a matter of time !

Although the tropical wave in the mid Atlantic failed to reach tropical depression-storm status-it is good indication that the season is likely to be a very active one. It is now just a matter of time before we start seeing development in the tropics. Practically all forecasts calls for a very active season. My advice is to hope for the best but be prepared for the worst! As of this morning, no reliable computer models are forecasting any development in the next seven days-but they also didn't forecast the wave that almost became "Alex" either. So stay tuned ! I sincerely believe that once the season gets started- it will be probably one right after the other- sort of like 2005- the year of Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Rex

Monday, June 14, 2010

Tropical Storm "ALEX" ???

A very strong tropical wave is located halfway between the African coast and South America. Although this area is not a favored place for tropical development this early in the season, this year is a little differant. The sea surface temps are just right and the system is being given a high chance of developing into a tropcial cyclone by the National Hurricane Center during the next few days. The season, which began June 1st appears to be starting to pick up steam now. We will keep you posted. Rex

Friday, June 11, 2010

Hot and dry weekend-tropics remain quiet-for now.

Expect mainly dry and hot weather for the area for the weekend. Temps are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s and lows will be in the mid 70s and very little, if any, rainfall expected. As far as the tropics are concerned-we are watching a few tropical waves cross the Atlantic and the Caribbean but nothing in the way of development is expected at this time. Have a great weekend. Rex

Monday, June 7, 2010

Hot and humid conditions will continue.

Hot and humid weather will be the norm for at least the next seven days here in the Pine Belt. Highs each day will be in the 90s and lows mainly in the 70s especially beginning Tuesday night as we may see upper 60s tonight as some slightly drier air filters in. The tropics remain quiet for now but it is now just a matter of time before we start seeing development. Stay tuned. Rex

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Hurricane Season Begins !

Today marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. Many respected forecasting agencies-both private and public-or forecasting a very active season. My problem with forecasting active or inactive seasons is that it only takes ONE storm that affects you and your loved ones to make it a BAD season. Just be prepared and hope for the best. The first billion dollar hurricane was "Betsy" in 1965 that struck southern Florida then SE Louisiana and there were only 7 storms total that year. Same thing occured in 1992 when "Andrew" came along and until "Katrina" was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history.Now would be an excellent time to stock up on bottled water, canned foods, batteries and other things that you may need in case we are hit. Don't panic and never listen to rumors when one is approaching the Gulf. We will keep you informed on the very latest information on any storm that may approach our area. Rex