My thoughts think Ida will flourish under healthy conditions in the next 12 hours and likely become a Category 2 before the day is over. But Monday morning should find Ida diminishing a little down to a Cat1/Tropical Storm because of the cold sea surface temperatures found in the Northern Gulf. This is a good sign for us in MS/AL/FL panhandle because the storm will be weakening before landfall so it's not a powerful "punch."
The most difficult forecast is the exact track of Ida going into Monday afternoon/evening. Will the storm begin to make an early eastward turn before making landfall near Mobile, or will the eastward turn happen just after landfall? I know the storm will turn right (east) but the difficult is determining when.
Our impacts? Expect to see an increase in breezy conditions going into Monday and Tuesday. Also rain chances increase going into late Monday and Tuesday. We will be on the "driest" side of the storm, but we should still see some rain combined with a weak low to our SW.
The Gulf will also become very choppy and dangerous in the next 24 hours. New Hurricane/Tropical Storm watches will be issued throughout the day.
Next update near 2pm...
...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.2N 86.0W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB
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